Ray of Hope - 129th Draw

[Woqi114]

I don't think anyone is manipulating anything ... it is just more people with higher scores are entering draws and that is because people now are getting more informed about Express Entry. I myself was very skeptical about it and always thought of it as a scam until my friend convinced me to enter and basically forced me to, and now I see that it is legit.

Personally I think there is hope for cut off score to drop lower than 460, especially if a draw happened this week, but I would have to agree that we will see the score holding up more often in the 460s.

Going forward, scores would become more competitive as more and more candidates pour in with higher numbers, you are right but we might see a dip every now and then based on the draw size and consistency.

In 2016, scores used to be 480s and 490s even when the invitations numbered 2500s. That is because at that time, there was a similar competition and scores used to dip to 470s every now and then based on b2b draws.

 

[gabriel900]

Going forward, scores would become more competitive as more and more candidates pour in with higher numbers, you are right but we might see a dip every now and then based on the draw size and consistency.

In 2016, scores used to be 480s and 490s even when the invitations numbered 2500s. That is because at that time, there was a similar competition and scores used to dip to 470s every now and then based on b2b draws.

Good thing is, 2019 is not over yet and for what is set for this year is to have a bigger number of invitations sent so logically speaking Score will drop below 260s if not this year definitely in Jan 2020.

Now 2020 is still blurry, but I don't think this will change and as you said for the long run scores might go up to 490s or drop to 440s. Time will tell and I'm sure as the end of 2019 approaches, we will have a clearer idea of how 2020 will shape up to be.

I generally agree that logically speaking, a draw this week makes sense, but who knows.

 

[mrs.Saifee]

Waiting at 464. Will lose 5 points on November 26 a day before the draw. Any hope?

if the draw happens on 23rd you are safe

 

[chemistesa]

if the draw happens on 23rd you are safe

Fingers crossed then. Thanks

 

[journey21]

This week is crunch week for many!
Exciting!

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

Immigration is not even in debate this year's election and parties are campaigning on climate change, carbon tax and balancing budget. I don't think a common man would even be aware of the pool size and the CRS.

But yes, the artificial CRS inflated around May was a deliberate move to attract more high scoring candidates (read US H1B workers) to the express entry program since there's now a general notion that instead of increasing the number of immigrants, something should be done to assimilate them in the Canadian job market which H1B workers can easily do.

most of 450s and 440s also include CEC and trust me when they go to work and say govt is being tough in giving invitations. So many on this thread are worried that their Work Permit will expire and they need an Invite before that.

May 2019 was deliberately repeated in October 2019. Chances of draw this Wednesday are remote. Lets hope I am wrong.

 

[keyur sharma]

Immigration is not even in debate this year's election and parties are campaigning on climate change, carbon tax and balancing budget. I don't think a common man would even be aware of the pool size and the CRS.

But yes, the artificial CRS inflated around May was a deliberate move to attract more high scoring candidates (read US H1B workers) to the express entry program since there's now a general notion that instead of increasing the number of immigrants, something should be done to assimilate them in the Canadian job market which H1B workers can easily do.

Climate change, Immigration and balance budget were topics of debate this year. Please see debates it’s on YouTube . I am supporting Conservatives but it looks like there will be no majority for any party and in that case liberals will be ruling CANADA again. So 99.99 % Justin Trudeau will be PM again of Canada.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

Climate change, Immigration and balance budget were topics of debate this year. Please see debates it’s on YouTube . I am supporting Conservatives but it looks like there will be no majority for any party and in that case liberals will be ruling CANADA again. So 99.99 % Justin Trudeau will be PM again of Canada.

99.99% Trudeau for the first time I hope and want that your prediction comes true.

 

[haider_Ali]

The thread is getting polticised but it is very simple to understand that policies dont change ovetnight where there is parliamentary systems. God forbid, if any party wants to change the immigration policy, it will take some time following procedures and legal requirements. So, we should be positive.

 

[smash1984]

99.99% Trudeau for the first time I hope and want that your prediction comes true.

I disagree with your analysis.

Immigration is one of the issues that both the major parties are in agreement on. The only difference is conservatives want more economic migrants (FSW) and less family based immigration (existing family sponsorships) otherwise both are in agreement that Canada needs more immigrants. It is just the type of immigrant that is the disagreement.

Secondly, as someone mentioned, the scores are higher because now a lot of highly qualified people are coming to Canada since UK, US, Australia, NZ (All the english speaking developed countries) have tightened their rules for immigration and have made it much harder. If you notice that now almost 50% people coming through express entry are Indians. a lot of them are H1B applicants who are looking towards Canada as an option with all the H1B uncertainty. Hence you are seeing the scores rise up due to all these factors. The pool itself is now much larger. When applying to canada on student permit in april 2018 i considered applying for PR back then. I checked my score (456 at that time) and there were barely 200 people above me in the pool. Now, there are probably 10,000 people in the pool with that score.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

I disagree with your analysis.

Immigration is one of the issues that both the major parties are in agreement on. The only difference is conservatives want more economic migrants (FSW) and less family based immigration (existing family sponsorships) otherwise both are in agreement that Canada needs more immigrants. It is just the type of immigrant that is the disagreement.

Secondly, as someone mentioned, the scores are higher because now a lot of highly qualified people are coming to Canada since UK, US, Australia, NZ (All the english speaking developed countries) have tightened their rules for immigration and have made it much harder. If you notice that now almost 50% people coming through express entry are Indians. a lot of them are H1B applicants who are looking towards Canada as an option with all the H1B uncertainty. Hence you are seeing the scores rise up due to all these factors. The pool itself is now much larger. When applying to canada on student permit in april 2018 i considered applying for PR back then. I checked my score (456 at that time) and there were barely 200 people above me in the pool. Now, there are probably 10,000 people in the pool with that score.

I didn't gave any analysis just what I felt. I was trying to put a reason for deliberate FST draws instead of regular bi weekly all program draw. First in May and now in Oct, I hope I am wrong and draw happens this week.

Conservatives disagree on number of Refugees canada is taking in and are against setting target never said they are anti immigration. They slander liberals for making immigration too easy. If you know how read between the lines Conservatives plan on making so called easy immigration tough. Now they have not given a clear plan but I doubt it would be a popular one. Easy immigration is criticism which I think liberals have been trying to get away with, recent attempts to make asylum seeking a little tougher is evidence of that and then purposefully playing with draw dates in 2019 which they did not do in 2018 or before makes it a bit obvious. I remember in one of the ROH threads when August 2019 first draw was delayed a CEC applicant specially said when people like me go to work place and say immigration is getting tougher the Canadian Voters do hear that.

The only party Anti Immigration is PPC. But if Conservatives Comes in power 2021 Liberal plan will be gone whether it is good or bad and invites would definitely be reduced as Conservatives supports LIMA + PNP over those without it. So the average CRS would definitely spike.

I know the scores are increasing they have been on a rise since 413 drop. But High 460s has been artificially induced due to planned Scheduling of Draws.

In May 2019 Scores were at 450 and then a 28 days gap. H1B has nothing to do with that it was Government decision.

FST draw trend this year has been the first since liberals came in power in 2015. It was my attempt to put a theory out there for the possible shift in trend.

I am all pro hope but I also believe that Draws just dont happen cause minister felt like it. The departure from previous years practice has to have a reason.

 

[roadtofreedom16]

No draw on this Wednesday, gotta wait till Oct 30.

 

[dreamcanada0224]

What do you guys mean by immigration will be impacted? Does it mean the express entry program itself will be impacted?
Will the guys with 1000+ points even stand a chance?

 

[WunderCat]

What do you guys mean by immigration will be impacted? Does it mean the express entry program itself will be impacted?
Will the guys with 1000+ points even stand a chance?

If PPC wins then yeah, that will be impacted 100%. But PPC will not win.
It is funny how they call themselves People's Party but looking at their views and opinions on some issues at VoteCompass, it feels like they are Anti-People Party.
Might be wrong but that was my first impression.

If Conservatives win, probably refugee immigration will be impacted but I would say(IMO) that EE will remain and will be more concentrated on experienced workers rather than anybody who got the highest score.

 

[roadtofreedom16]

If PPC wins then yeah, that will be impacted 100%. But PPC will not win.
It is funny how they call themselves People's Party but looking at their views and opinions on some issues at VoteCompass, it feels like they are Anti-People Party.
Might be wrong but that was my first impression.

If Conservatives win, probably refugee immigration will be impacted but I would say(IMO) that EE will remain and will be more concentrated on experienced workers rather than anybody who got the highest score.

PPC, the name makes people kinda think of CCP ...