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Ray of Hope - 129th Draw

manidhatt

Champion Member
May 30, 2013
1,257
592
Ontario
NOC Code......
2281
App. Filed.......
Feb 03
Doc's Request.
Feb 26 - Submitted March 03
AOR Received.
Feb 03
Med's Done....
Feb 12
Passport Req..
Aug 03
The way trends are in the recent weeks, I think there is hardly a possibility of scores going as low as 459 by this year end.

Many people in that range losing points starting January 2020 due birthdays.

The silence on this thread since the FST says it all. :)

I am positive there will be a draw around 459 in the next couple of draws. People lose birthday points regularly (not everyone has birthday in Jan). On the positive side in the new year there won't be many candidates in the pool with provincial nominations as the quota resets, and it takes provinces some time to process the applications.

Anyone over 455 should be hopeful to get ITA soon.
 

Mustafa Ghias

Full Member
Jun 19, 2019
31
10
I am positive there will be a draw around 459 in the next couple of draws. People lose birthday points regularly (not everyone has birthday in Jan). On the positive side in the new year there won't be many candidates in the pool with provincial nominations as the quota resets, and it takes provinces some time to process the applications.

Anyone over 455 should be hopeful to get ITA soon.
That sounds like a true champion! Thanks.
 
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shergill12

Star Member
May 26, 2018
178
65
Melbourne
BAD NEWS PART:

Just to remind you all, when Canada starting taking migrants in huge number they also took international students with same numbers! Now after a year and half (Study finished) all of them are applying for EE as well. They have good scores over us because of being in Canada, work exp there and easy LMIA arrangements! My friend who is a immigration consultant told me he's bombarded with students visiting him. They also have an edge over off-shore candidates as PNP is easy option for them!

So if you're thinking how come score is increasing this fast suddenly and so many people entering the pool. Answer is above!

GOOD NEWS PART:

Most of off-shore applicants can score 470ish max in general and on-Shore/Inland can go 450 in average (Before LMIA or PNP). Now after a period of time even with all these PNP and LMIA if their score goes 500 above not many will be in 470-500 Range! Eventually score will remain in 460-470 range and maybe low next year.
 
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Ilyushin76

Hero Member
Mar 24, 2019
485
190
BAD NEWS PART:

Just to remind you all, when Canada starting taking migrants in huge number they also took international students with same numbers! Now after a year and half (Study finished) all of them are applying for EE as well. They have good scores over us because of being in Canada, work exp there and easy LMIA arrangements! My friend who is a immigration consultant told me he's bombarded with students visiting him. They also have an edge over off-shore candidates as PNP is easy option for them!

So if you're thinking how come score is increasing this fast suddenly and so many people entering the pool. Answer is above!

GOOD NEWS PART:

Most of off-shore applicants can score 470ish max in general and on-Shore/Inland can go 450 in average (Before LMIA or PNP). Now after a period of time even with all these PNP and LMIA if their score goes 500 above not many will be in 470-500 Range! Eventually score will remain in 460-470 range and maybe low next year.
Makes sense.
Like i stated before, May is when the damage hits - master graduates walk out, previous year graduates have one year Canadian work experience. So the CRS will shoot up.
 
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Ilyushin76

Hero Member
Mar 24, 2019
485
190
I am positive there will be a draw around 459 in the next couple of draws. People lose birthday points regularly (not everyone has birthday in Jan). On the positive side in the new year there won't be many candidates in the pool with provincial nominations as the quota resets, and it takes provinces some time to process the applications.

Anyone over 455 should be hopeful to get ITA soon.
Lets hope. :)
 

shergill12

Star Member
May 26, 2018
178
65
Melbourne
FST Draws history:cool:

May 26 2017 Friday
Normal draw
May 31 2017 6 Days

Nov 1 2017 Wednesday
Normal Draw
Nov 8 2017 7 Days

May 30 2018 Wednesday
Normal Draw
June 13 2018 14 Days
But here FST draw happened a week after MAY 23 Draw. So, three draws happened in 3 weeks.


September 24 2018 Monday
Normal Draw
October 3 2018 8 Days

May 15 2019 Wednesday
Normal draw
May 29 2019 14 days
Lot of international students pass out in MAY.

There's a high hope a round will happen this week! It's not false hope or anything but you can call it estimate/trend/prediction based on Data.
 

haider_Ali

Full Member
Jan 20, 2017
28
20
If your PCC was issued after you left the country then it is still good.

Lets say you went to Pakistan and came back on Jan 01 2019 and your PCC was issued after that date and you never went back then it is still good.

It has to be issued after your latest visit. Hope this helps you.
Thanks mate. I hope that will be fine.
At ircc site they have written that "the immigration officer might ask for a fresh pcc" which baffles me.
 

haider_Ali

Full Member
Jan 20, 2017
28
20
FST Draws history:cool:

May 26 2017 Friday
Normal draw
May 31 2017 6 Days

Nov 1 2017 Wednesday
Normal Draw
Nov 8 2017 7 Days

May 30 2018 Wednesday
Normal Draw
June 13 2018 14 Days
But here FST draw happened a week after MAY 23 Draw. So, three draws happened in 3 weeks.


September 24 2018 Monday
Normal Draw
October 3 2018 8 Days

May 15 2019 Wednesday
Normal draw
May 29 2019 14 days
Lot of international students pass out in MAY.

There's a high hope a round will happen this week! It's not false hope or anything but you can call it estimate/trend/prediction based on Data.
There are lots of assumptions which make us positive but there are many more which lead us to bleak ends.
The people working on draws are doing their job as per routine unfazed by the elections, students graduating around and people getting higher scores in ielts. So, we can expect anything from them. Its still up to them either they go for normal draws or b2b draws.
 

ntheegel

Full Member
Aug 5, 2019
41
10
Hi Guys,
Please help me.
I have a question on OINP, I received NOI on August 1st, however; I didn't accept because CRS score would be decrease. But, things are not going well, my question is, am I eligible to get OINP again or not with the same province. Much appreciate for your help!
I was in the same situation.Due to incorrect information by a lawyer, I had to drop. I am not sure if you would receive a NOI again second time from Ontario next year based off existing Express Entry Profile. Seniors Is there anyone in the forum who received OINP NOI second time based off existing EE Profile?

As per instructions from Ontario Government from 2016 a new profile was needed in order to get a Second OINP NOI. Is this still the same?

So should the existing EE profile be withdrawn and create a new EE profile in 2020 for a reinvite from OINP?

==================================================================================================

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/oinp-questions-about-invitation.354832/

Hi Guys,

It finally got confirmed from OINP. Please find their reply below.

******************************************************************************************************************************
You are not obligated to accept the invitation from Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program (OINP). There is no "blacklist" if you do not accept an invitation. If you do not accept the invitation but decide in the future you are interested in pursuing in our program, you will need to register again in the portal next year.

However, the OINP posted important news on May 9, 2016 about a temporary pause on intake of applications for select, high-volume streams. For more information, please visit: http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPNEW.html

For questions and answers about this temporary pause, please visit: http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPINTAKE.html#display

Should you have any additional inquiries, please contact them directly at Ontario Immigrant Nominee program at 416-327-0374 or toll-free at 1-866-214-6820 or via email at ExpressEntry@ontario.ca

I hope this has been of some assistance to you.
OntarioImmigration.ca


******************************************************************************************************************************

Regards,
Sreeraj

====================================================================================================
 
Last edited:

shergill12

Star Member
May 26, 2018
178
65
Melbourne
There are lots of assumptions which make us positive but there are many more which lead us to bleak ends.
The people working on draws are doing their job as per routine unfazed by the elections, students graduating around and people getting higher scores in ielts. So, we can expect anything from them. Its still up to them either they go for normal draws or b2b draws.
I'm not sure who came up with round not happening because of elections point but it's baseless. Also people were getting high score before as well it's just they used to get invite very next round with 450-460 scores and no will get to know much. Since past few days, the score have gone above that range everyone is noticing the trend and specially people who are scoring good in IELTS.

In the end all we can do is hope....
 

NAM2014

Star Member
Aug 4, 2019
64
18
After seeing the pool distribution, the good news is the flow of PNP slowed down a bit compared to the previous interval. My calculation is that the next cut-off will be:
465 (if next draw is Oct 23)
470 (if next draw is Oct 30)

All numbers above are based on 3900 ITA per draw, and equal distribution of newly added profiles between 450s/460s/470-600 intervals
My detailed calculation:
https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=!AIZPsbVDi3g_DPw&cid=8E69E61DB486B3E2&id=8E69E61DB486B3E2!5713&parId=8E69E61DB486B3E2!2622&action=locate
This is mightily interesting! I tried to access your details but without success. If you don't mind share it again.
Thank you!
 

journey21

Hero Member
Dec 25, 2014
315
123
I believe Liberals will still be re-elected on Monday, so please don't fret too much about the outcome.
Enjoy your weekend.
 

Angel1113

Hero Member
Jun 6, 2019
808
937
Ontario
Category........
CEC
NOC Code......
4212
AOR Received.
24 June 2020
Med's Done....
05-06-2020
CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on Oct 20, 2019 11:15 am UTC):-
  • 460+ (Total 27): | thatguy1: 1054 | veritas1994: 1049 | yemjim: 1045 | Dingusitis: 476 | gabriel900: 475 | stepass: 474 | Arsh45: 474 | adilgigyani: 473 | vinegarandsalt: 473 | EricD: 471 | Ria-sharma: 469 | mudjawd: 468 | sri8707 : 467 | Tanvirk: 465 | Ca_karan: 464 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | BindhuMadhvi: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Dimpysimple: 462 | aikay: 462 | cas009: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 | AJ1208: 461 | shergill12: 461| sinmansion: 461 |
  • 455-460 (Total 77) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | anukaran: 459 | awley: 459 | Nandita16: 459 | hauder_Ali: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | blueshark: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Manishprasher: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | cdddelhi: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Dr Seun: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 |
  • 454-450 (Total 60) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Artk: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |
  • 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | a.altigani: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |
  • 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |
  • 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |
If your score is not included in the list or score is changed please reply to this post with your current score. Thanks!
 
Last edited:

aikay

Star Member
Aug 8, 2019
159
91
Hello , don't be hopeless 464 will eventually get you ITA within the next 3draws.if they don't skip draws again ,then you not far away . Hoping they come as low as 462 soon . Stay positive
 

haider_Ali

Full Member
Jan 20, 2017
28
20
CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on Oct 16, 2019 11:15 am UTC):-
  • 460+ (Total 24): | thatguy1: 1054 | veritas1994: 1049 | yemjim: 1045 | Dingusitis: 476 | stepass: 474 | Arsh45: 474 | adilgigyani: 473 | vinegarandsalt: 473 | EricD: 471 | Ria-sharma: 469 | mudjawd: 468 | sri8707 : 467 | Ca_karan: 464 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | BindhuMadhvi: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Dimpysimple: 462 | aikay: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 | AJ1208: 461 | shergill12: 461| sinmansion: 461 |
  • 455-460 (Total 76) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | anukaran: 459 | awley: 459 | Nandita16: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | blueshark: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Manishprasher: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | cdddelhi: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Dr Seun: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 |
  • 454-450 (Total 60) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Artk: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |
  • 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | a.altigani: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |
  • 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |
  • 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |
If your score is not included in the list or score is changed please reply to this post with your current score. Thanks!
Add me at 459 pls.
 
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