Moreover, most of 466 are clear, this draw is almost 465 despite below:
1. 5 days extra addition of 460+ candidates ( 5 x 185 = 925 extra candidates)
2. Approx 1000 candidates of 600+
So overall, great show
In my head.
if draw is 3600,
1000-= 600+
200 - 300 = > 500
1000 = 470 - 500
1200 = 466 - 470
1000 = 460 - 466
A shit ton of people = < 460
maybe 1000 = 458 - 460
if 3600 is cleared
then new pool if there are no crazy numbers from PNP
400 = 600+
200 - 300 = > 500
1000 = 470 - 500
1200 = 466 - 470
1000 = 460 - 466 (draw makes sense to be in this range)
A shit ton of people = < 460
maybe 1000 = 458 - 460
3000 = < 455
Obviously >500 is very rare, and 471 is not that difficult
There were 7000 within 450 - 600
more than half were less than 460 for sure
> 460 should be looking like 3800 or worst 3900
if they drew up to 3600 at 466 on August 12th when we had 7000 as of August 2nd ( because lets face it they probably had around 7600 if they waited that long for the draw)
Then I think it is very realistic to expect that there are not alot of people in the 460+ range
The only thing is people keep adapting and the CRS know this as well, remember when 440 was a thing and people though 450 was golden egg? Now we cannot even mention 450.
To be honest I dont know what to expect
If it happens on 28th, it should drop to maybe 464 if they dont miss any draws drop to 463 then 462 and continue the trend that it did when it jumped to 471. Maybe drop to 460 or 459 now is anyone's guess
I know that if you did less than 3 years in college, its very bad, because maximum ielts score will bring you to 462. But University kids will get that easy on average IELTS
This year is definitely messy, people that got ITAs last year are looking at this year and going WTF.
If your father is a religious person just pray, pray for the rest of us because who knows.
I think they know at CRS and are trying their best, if the information that the draw was supposed to happen on AUg 7th is true, then they are probably making a conscious effort.But it looks like the site going for maintenance may have had some last minute disruptions to their plans. I can honestly see them going back to 3900, if they want to. Especially since the elections are up, and immigration policies from the conservatives will not take effect until a few more months.
