Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

[Punitsingh]

woah, thats scary. 170+ per day with 465+ is quite a daunting figure. bro, when do you think the cutoff can reach 463 again? whats your realistic assumption tells?

463 will get ita very next draw after 14th August.
Don’t forget there was a sharp decrease from 470-465

Points in favour Of sharp decrease:
1. 3 week gap instead of 4 week hence lesser accumulation
2. Increased ita 3600/3900 as compared to 3350 at that time of 470-465

Points against sharp decrease:
1. PNP, which I guess might not be in full effect till 28th August

I guess on 28th aug there should be a 3 point decrease in CRS

 

[Punitsingh]

Moreover seeing the past of 3 week gap, it is usually followed by b2b draw,
First of all let’s pray for draw on 14 th aug

 

[enibeni23]

I really hope there is a draw on the 14th. Do you think they would go without a draw for a month straight?

 

[Dheana90]

thats a very logical and calculative representation of the ITA's and cutoffs my friend. well done. I just have a simple question, though you have used the internal tracker for finding out the distribution number but is there any logical derivation or past data analysis behind concluding that there will be around 2000 people from 463 to 500? This ll definitely determine what might be the cutoff next week.

Past data only showed score range of 451-600. No one really know how many people will be on 460, 461,463,470,471 and so on...So, the calculation I did previously is based on my personal assumptions on internal tracker's data. I just assume that more than half of the 4,158 new added applicants on the pool until next Wednesday will have score of 461 and above,dear..As I said above, the calculation is only "estimation". Based on the previously published CRS score distribution each draws.

 

[Dheana90]

Past data only showed score range of 451-600. No one really know how many people will be on 460, 461,463,470,471 and so on...So, the calculation I did previously is based on my personal assumptions on internal tracker's data. I just assume that more thab half of the 4,158 new added applicants on the pool until next Wednesday will have score of 461 and above,dear..As I said above, the calculation is only "estimation". Based on the previously published CRS score distribution each draws.

If you have been following ROH threads previously. You should be able to see thaf I have been doing calculation or "estimation" of CRS score distribution based on previous data since ROH 119 if I'm not mistaken. But we have to remember that the published data is always 5days prior to the draw date so, no one knows how many candidates were entering the pool in those 5 days. Specifically, the CRS score each candidates have. So, we can only assume to get an idea of how much roughly the CRS score distribution gonna be aand what the cut off gonna be dear @Midnight Blessing

 

[imusi]

Just booked IELTS CDT for my spouse. Results will come out by Aug 23. If he’s lucky enough to get a 6655 then we’ll get 8 more points. Finger crossed

 

[Dheana90]

BC issues new PNPs
https://www.canadavisa.com/news/bc-issues-238-new-invitations-to-graduates-and-workers.html

PNPs raining...

This is only Notificataion/ Leter of Interest,dear...Not actual nominations. People who got NOI/LOI have to apply first then it will take atleast 30days or more to process before those candidates get nomination and see an increase in score.

 

[Dheana90]

I really hope there is a draw on the 14th. Do you think they would go without a draw for a month straight?

50/50 change but I can't figure out why would they do that though.

 

[robin6869]

I think they should just have 2 yearly draw with 50K ITA at least we don't have to die slowly every next wednesday.

 

[imusi]

I think they should just have 2 yearly draw with 50K ITA at least we don't have to die slowly every next wednesday.

Ahahaha I’m literally laughing with tears mate

 

[Midnight Blessing]

If you have been following ROH threads previously. You should be able to see thaf I have been doing calculation or "estimation" of CRS score distribution based on previous data since ROH 119 if I'm not mistaken. But we have to remember that the published data is always 5days prior to the draw date so, no one knows how many candidates were entering the pool in those 5 days. Specifically, the CRS score each candidates have. So, we can only assume to get an idea of how much roughly the CRS score distribution gonna be aand what the cut off gonna be dear @Midnight Blessing

After waiting for 2.5 years my score went up but again cic skipped the usual draw ensuring that they do break my dream in billions of pcs considering my ielts ll expire soon. But I don't even have any emotions left to feel sad. I can only smile on my fate thinking all of my efforts went in vain. All those endeavour just turned to ashes without any hope to succeed.

 

[Dheana90]

I think they should just have 2 yearly draw with 50K ITA at least we don't have to die slowly every next wednesday.

Hahaha...CIC can't process all applications at once,dear...Even with 3350 per forthnight,they are already struggling...I can't imagine with 50k. Some of the applications won't get process for years. The processing time will take atleast 3 years, I guess.

 

[Dheana90]

After waiting for 2.5 years my score went up but again cic skipped the usual draw ensuring that they do break my dream in billions of pcs considering my ielts ll expire soon. But I don't even have any emotions left to feel sad. I can only smile on my fate thinking all of my efforts went in vain. All those endeavour just turned to ashes without any hope to succeed.

Don't take it personally, dear...I don't think they target people individually. I'm sure there are numerous of people are having lower score than you and have been waiting longer as well.

But, I'm sure you are not someone who can give up easily. If you can wait for more than two years and actually have done something to boost your score. I'm definitely sure that you can wait a lil bit longer for the score to come down again.

Keep your hopes up,dear. Everything will be beautiful in its time. Just don't give up!! God bless.

 

[DEEP3694]

I have not been following the score distribution for previous rounds but based on the one from 19th july. If they do not update the score distribution today, does that mean there wont be a draw next week?
They do mention they update it few days before the invitation round.

 

[nj22]

Hi Guys,

I require some assistance with a question. I am currently waiting for ITA, My CRS, I believe is a pretty good score over 460. I hope to get ITA during next rounds of invitation even though I created my profile on August 2nd. I am currently on a implied status. I applied for a TRV because my PGWP was expiring and PGWPs cannot be extended.
If I do get ITA, and PR is approved, during this process is there a likelihood of getting a Work Permit?

Thank you in advance.

Anyone one here knows the answer to this