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Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

Angel1113

Hero Member
Jun 6, 2019
808
937
Ontario
Category........
CEC
NOC Code......
4212
AOR Received.
24 June 2020
Med's Done....
05-06-2020
Angel, Very nice that you have already take over for the internal CRS tracker. This sample was so useful for me as it help me to project my gap and improving score. You can remove me (previously at 453 in the tracker before I got pnp).
Thank you and good luck for further process! :)
 
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dilpreet3991

Full Member
Jun 27, 2019
40
6
No program specified

See full text of Ministerial Instruction

Number of invitations issued: 3,600Footnote*

Rank required to be invited to apply: 3,600th or above

Date and time of round: July 24, 2019 at 12:55:38 UTC

CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 459

Tie-breaking rule: May 25, 2019 at 14:40:52 UTC
Hey Nitin, I submitted my profile on May 14 with crs 459 but stil didn’t receive ITA.
 

Akshay10

Full Member
Jul 24, 2019
26
21
I am new to the forum. Add me at 456.

I have on question for experts here. Please help.

If I don't select my spouse, I am at 461. And by November I get work experience and my score goes to 461 as well. Should I wait or go alone. IELTS is another option. Please suggest.
 

Angel1113

Hero Member
Jun 6, 2019
808
937
Ontario
Category........
CEC
NOC Code......
4212
AOR Received.
24 June 2020
Med's Done....
05-06-2020
I am new to the forum. Add me at 456.

I have on question for experts here. Please help.

If I don't select my spouse, I am at 461. And by November I get work experience and my score goes to 461 as well. Should I wait or go alone. IELTS is another option. Please suggest.
I suggest you wait. There is a good chance of getting picked with 456 in August/Sept. If not you will definitely get ITA in Nov as your score will be high enough. Since you do have a back up waiting sounds like a better option.

Added you to the chart.
 
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Akshay10

Full Member
Jul 24, 2019
26
21
I suggest you wait. There is a good chance of getting picked with 456 in August/Sept. If not you will definitely get ITA in Nov as your score will be high enough. Since you do have a back up waiting sounds like a better option.

Added you to the chart.
Thank you for your opinion. I'll wait then and I wish all the luck for fellow members.
 
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James_bk_fun

Star Member
Mar 3, 2019
57
22
CRS distribution estimation (441-1,200 range) and 7th August CRS cut off prediction are below:

July 5th CRS distribution are:
601-1,200
=312
451-600 =6,305
441-450 =7,169

It means, in 9 days from 26th June to 5th July, there were:

601-1,200
= 35profile/day (312/9)
451-600 =243prof/day(6305-4120=2185/9)
441-450 =30profile/day (7,169-6,895=274/9)

By 10th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200
=487 (312+ 175(35x5days))
451-600 =7,520(6,305+ 1,215(243x5))
441-450 = 7,319(7,169 + 150(30x5))

After the 10th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:


601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-487=3,113)
451-600 = 4,407 (7,520- 3,113)
441-450 =7,319


July 19th CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =262
451-600 =6,193
441-450 =7,571

It means, in 9 days from 10th July to 19th July, there were:

601-1,200
= 29profile/day (262/9)
451-600 =198p'file/day(6,193-4,407=1,786/9)
441-450 =28profile/day (7,571-7,319=252/9)


By 24th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200
=407 (262+ 145(29x5days))
451-600 =7,183(6,193+ 990(198x5))
441-450 = 7,711(7,571+ 140(28x5))


After today, 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-262=3,338)
451-600 = 3,843 (7,183- 3,338)
441-450 =7,711

Those 3,843 profile left in 451-600 are only those who have score of 451-459 only now. As the tie break was May 25th, it is evident that there were huge amount of profiles having 460+ scores after the 10th July draw because even with 3,338 invitation left, the cut of score was drop by 1 point only. The good thing is that the 451-459 profiles are decreasing thanks to the 3600 ITAs and the slow influx of high scorer profile entering the pool.


By 7th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200
=406 (29x14days)
451-600 =6,615(3,843+2772(198x14days))
441-450 = 8,103(7,711 + 392(28x14days))


With 3600 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 455-457



With 3900 ITAs

The cutoff score will be around 453-455
This calculation makes sense but the conclusions don’t reflect the relative distribution of those remaining profiles in the 451-460 range. This makes your predictions too optimistic
 

Jasmine1998

Star Member
Jun 2, 2019
51
63
CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS

CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on July 24th 9:50 pm UTC):-
  • 460+ (Total 0)
  • 455-460 (Total 48) – nogachan301185: 459 | ExpressMan: 459 | Punitsingh: 459 | atuls: 459 | mehr_ibrahim: 459 | imusi: 458 | Khanstan: 458 | Barinderpal: 458 | Kathy.m: 458 | SimAneja: 458 | hungta: 458 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | Kenneth89: 458 | Herlo: 458 | vivi153: 458 | Dhaval Trivedi: 458 | jollystripes: 458 | jjk505: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | jamlabhai: 457 | #EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | diju:457 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | Teenz: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | bhanu1986: 456 | tharibak: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Angel1113: 456| missusd:456 | Akshay10: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | yigitsk: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455
  • 450-454 (Total 42) - nadal87: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | rose1207: 453 | strawy96: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | vivosvoco: 453 | Maya53: 453 | Uchyann: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Woqi114: 451 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | praveen22: 451 | captainUT: 451 | tonydlaw24: 451 | Chuaxin1: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 |
  • 445-449 (Total 60) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 |nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | os32: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | ArsheyaBegum: 447 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445
  • 441-444 (Total 40)- Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441
  • 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 6) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list. Also, if someone in the list with 459 got ITA please let me know.
Thank you for doing this @Angel1113. This chart is really helpful to see a clear picture of future draws and complete express entry pool. :)
 
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Sami123

Star Member
Nov 1, 2017
66
32
I am new to the forum. Add me at 456.

I have on question for experts here. Please help.

If I don't select my spouse, I am at 461. And by November I get work experience and my score goes to 461 as well. Should I wait or go alone. IELTS is another option. Please suggest.
Don’t wait the score is just rising I have been watching since three years every single year there is an increase of 10 points if you wait you would might never get it if it’s so important to you get it w as soon as you can this is my opinion and it’s all up to you nothing is guaranteed
 

LKRYA

Hero Member
Mar 8, 2018
263
241
Hey All! I finally got the Golden E-mail (ITA).
My journey was quite long.
I started up looking up from R.O.H 89. Stayed silently and observed.
Did IELTS 13 times and became potential with 448 in February 1st.
Lost 5 points again on 1st March on my birthday.
At last managed to increase my points to 459 and got the ITA.
I know, still I have a long way to go.

I should thank all of you in this group. Special thank goes to 13nitinsharma, NickSharma01, EnthuChap and Angel113 for all the valuble advises yo'll gave me. I shall remain intact in ROH and hope to see rest who struggle will get their ITAs soon.

I'm not a senior or a good predictor. But I feel there is a chance for everyone above 445 within 2019. Dont just wait for your fate. Try all avenues to improve your scores. Do not just keep this just a dream. Make it a reality.

All the best Amigos!!! :)
 

Akshay10

Full Member
Jul 24, 2019
26
21
There is this OINP tracker and according to that 35% NOI issued on 31st May were approved before today's draw.

So we still have 65% left from May and then June 12th NOIs will start to get approved before August 21st draw. Therefore don't expect crs to drop dramatically. My predictions are:

August 7: 458 will tie breaker at end of May or early June
August 21: 458 all cleared
Sept 4: 457
Sept 18: 456 will tie breaker around end of May
Oct 2: 456 with tie breaker somewhere in July.
AND THEN PROGRAM SPECIFIC DRAW MIGHT HAPPEN RUINING EVERYTHING.
Me at 456 with profile submitted later is never going to see an ITA. At least not in this year. :(:(:(

Sorry guys I was all about positivity but I am going to start working on my IELTS now. Otherwise my turn will never come.
Thanks mate. I am on the same boat as you.

I believe the high influx of 455+ candidates is probably due to cancellation of CSQ (Bill 9) in QC. From my discussion with few friends in QC, it seems like most of the are opting for express entry in the past few months. Note that most of them in QC may have french test results too.

There were about 16K CSQ applications scrapped and we have about 17K ITAs issued with 459+ from May 29th. This is no coincidence to my knowledge. While this is not the only factor for increase in score, this is a major contributor per my understanding. The 4 weeks gap didn't help either.

If my understanding is correct, we can see decrease of influx with higher scores in near future. Then it is all about clearing accumulated backlog.

My prediction would be 457 (Tie breaker around May end) for Aug 7th and 455 (With Tie breaker around June end) for Aug 21. I hope my predictions come true and we we get the ITA by Aug :)
 

Angel1113

Hero Member
Jun 6, 2019
808
937
Ontario
Category........
CEC
NOC Code......
4212
AOR Received.
24 June 2020
Med's Done....
05-06-2020
Hey All! I finally got the Golden E-mail (ITA).
My journey was quite long.
I started up looking up from R.O.H 89. Stayed silently and observed.
Did IELTS 13 times and became potential with 448 in February 1st.
Lost 5 points again on 1st March on my birthday.
At last managed to increase my points to 459 and got the ITA.
I know, still I have a long way to go.

I should thank all of you in this group. Special thank goes to 13nitinsharma, NickSharma01, EnthuChap and Angel113 for all the valuble advises yo'll gave me. I shall remain intact in ROH and hope to see rest who struggle will get their ITAs soon.

I'm not a senior or a good predictor. But I feel there is a chance for everyone above 445 within 2019. Dont just wait for your fate. Try all avenues to improve your scores. Do not just keep this just a dream. Make it a reality.

All the best Amigos!!! :)
Yeahhhh!!!! Many congratulations @LKRYA. This is a success you truly deserved. I am sure your story will inspire many more in this thread. Wishing you all the best for post ITA process from bottom of my heart. Now go out and party! ;)
 

Ishakharub

Member
Jan 9, 2019
10
13
Hi,

Please add me at 456.

I also have a question from seniors. I worked for 1.5/2 years part time while I was a student. Does that count as work ex?

Also, when are we expecting 456 to be picked up? I cant have more points as I already have a pefect Ielts score, masters degree and an year's experience. Max experience I can show is of 2 years. Would that work? It might be a silly question but I just had a doubt about this.

Thank you :')
 

Angel1113

Hero Member
Jun 6, 2019
808
937
Ontario
Category........
CEC
NOC Code......
4212
AOR Received.
24 June 2020
Med's Done....
05-06-2020
Hi,

Please add me at 456.

I also have a question from seniors. I worked for 1.5/2 years part time while I was a student. Does that count as work ex?

Also, when are we expecting 456 to be picked up? I cant have more points as I already have a pefect Ielts score, masters degree and an year's experience. Max experience I can show is of 2 years. Would that work? It might be a silly question but I just had a doubt about this.

Thank you :')
Added you.

I am no senior but work experience under CEC only counts after submitting work permit application. You cannot count any experience while being a full-time student.

456 will be picked within September hopefully.