Ray of Hope - 121st Draw

[SithLord]

Me too brother.

I'm going to be here too for a while brother. Although my reasons are different. I spent over a year in these Ray of hope threads for motivation to get the ITA. Looks like I need to find that motivation again to get through this tough period since my PPR never seems to arrive.

Feeling low at the moment. Hopefully, I can regain what I had lost in these threads again.

To us all Canadian Dreamers, we will all eventually make it some day

 

[BLACKPILL]

Looks like score will start decreasing gradually now as people above 450 are piling up. But don't worry 456 will be cleared in august for sure. Hang in tight our time will come.

I saw your worrying message at work earlier today. We are on the same boat. I am in Northern Alberta and working full-time as a lab tech. Work permit expiring next September. I have CRS point of 456 lol. As I told you before, assuming there will be another delay in late September, there are 6 draws ahead. And each draw reduces 1 point from current one we should still have 456 in the end. Moreover it is very likely to decrease more than 1 point each draw. I assume the huge backlog will be somewhere 450-454. We are not in too much trouble.

 

[SithLord]

You were accurate, please share ur prediction for next draw, thx

Expecting next draw to be on July 10th and cut-off 460

 

[Angel1113]

I saw your worrying message at work earlier today. We are on the same boat. I am in Northern Alberta and working full-time as a lab tech. Work permit expiring next September. I have CRS point of 456 lol. As I told you before, assuming there will be another delay in late September, there are 6 draws ahead. And each draw reduces 1 point from current one we should still have 456 in the end. Moreover it is very likely to decrease more than 1 point each draw. I assume the huge backlog will be somewhere 450-454. We are not in too much trouble.

Thank you I really needed to hear that. Fingers crossed!!!

I feel like program specific draw might be conducted at the end of September as FST draw this year was conducted a little bit early than usual (May15).

 

[BLACKPILL]

Thank you I really needed to hear that. Fingers crossed!!!

I feel like program specific draw might be conducted at the end of September as FST draw this year was conducted a little bit early than usual (May15).

That is why I say time is sufficient but not ample. After that specific draw then comes the election, the Sheer government will take over within 3 months after October leaving a gap till December ish. I don't think the new government will increase ITAs and might change the system in 6 months. The conservatives created EE but not sure they still like it.

 

[imusi]

I guess there are no IELTS TEST results being declared till the next draw..one exam is on 29th and the other one is on July 6th.

CD TEST is more frequent... here in my city it’s happening like every other day

 

[Islander5548]

Do you guys think there will be draws in 446-449 area? Disheartening really to see this go up to the 460s.

 

[Angel1113]

Do you guys think there will be draws in 446-449 area? Disheartening really to see this go up to the 460s.

Honestly nobody call tell anything for sure right now. Score is really high right now and decreasing slowly but it doesn't mean it can't come down. If there is B2B draw or ITAs per draw increase there is hope for people under 450 by end of year or starting of 2020. In mean time try to increase your score. Good luck!!

 

[Islander5548]

Honestly nobody call tell anything for sure right now. Score is really high right now and decreasing slowly but it doesn't mean it can't come down. If there is B2B draw or ITAs per draw increase there is hope for people under 450 by end of year or starting of 2020. In mean time try to increase your score. Good luck!!

Thank you. I maxed out on IELTS. Got CBL 10 and got two degrees. Only way i can increase my points is to wait until Next year April to complete three years experience. Thats a lot of time to wait but there is no other way.

 

[JinalDesaiSharma]

hi everyone!
i received my ITA today morning Yay!!
My spouse is here in Canada and I have shown him as Non-accompanying spouse during the EE Profile. Filing the PR individually is not a big issue but in the meantime while completing my EE application, there is question for the non-accompanying spouse asking "PLEASE EXPLAIN WHY NOT".

my individual reason for filing it individually was high CRS points. If I added my spouse then the CRS would be around 443 whereas right now individually I have 465 due to which i got my ITA.

my spouse came to Canada as dependent a less than six months ago and waiting for his IELTS results and ECA would result into me missing many draws. He is still not sure whether we completely want to migrate to Canada or not due to the family ties, but I am filing it because I am eligible to file PR.

My reason would be very generic because of the CRS. How else can I explain why I am filing it individually?

 

[imusi]

Thank you. I maxed out on IELTS. Got CBL 10 and got two degrees. Only way i can increase my points is to wait until Next year April to complete three years experience. Thats a lot of time to wait but there is no other way.

I envy you for being so young and having many years of opportunity...

 

[Islander5548]

I envy you for being so young and having many years of opportunity...

I am sure you’ll get through brother/ sister. Good luck

 

[Dream Come-True]

Seeing all this predictions calculations..I think I am done here standing at 453 losing 5 points by
End of August :-(

 

[Herlo]

Hi guys, I have made some estimation of the cut off score for for 121 draw which hopefully should happen on 10th July based on the previous CRS distribution as follow.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315

It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)

By 12th June, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =448 (288 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7001 (5,646 + 1355(271x5))
441-450 = 6460 (6,315 + 145(29x5))

After the 12th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution should be:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-448=2902)
451-600 = 4,099 (7001 - 2902)
441-450 =6460

June 21st CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =285
451-600 =5,980
441-450 =6,775

It means, in 9 days from 12th June to 21th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (285/9)
451-600 =209prof/day(5980-4099=881/9)
441-450 =24profile/day (6,775-6460=215/9)

By 26th June, the score distribution would be:
601-1,200 =445 (285 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7025 (5,980 + 1045(209x5))
441-450 = 6895(6,775 + 120(29x5))

After the 26th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-445=2905)
451-600 = 4,120 (7025- 2905)
441-450 =6,895

The 4,120 in the (451-600) are those sitting at 451-462 only. The density of these scores are unknown. Maybe most of them are sitting at 450s or 460s. No one really know.

By 10th July, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200= 448 (32x14days)
451-600= 7046 (4,120+ 2926(209x14)
441-450= 7301(6,895+ 406(29x14)

Approximately:
With 3350 ITAs
The cutoff score is 458-460

With 3500 ITAs
The cutoff score is 455-457

With 3750 ITAs
The cutoff score is 452-454

With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score is 449-453.

This is only estimation guys. So the cutoff score may will be lower on the draw date. So, look at this as worse case scenario only.

Hope your predictions come true dear !!!

 

[m.alassaad]

Time to register for Ielts again!