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Ray of Hope - 121st Draw

S

sarak1812

Hero Member
May 21, 2019
300
67
NikSharma01 said:
The current inflow of applicants into the pool is as below:

On June 21 (5 days advance data)
5980+285=6265

After the draw 3350 files out of these got cleared, reducing the figures as 6265-3350=2915

It means 2915/9=323.889 Profiles got added in 9 days.

Now, the data as of 26 June (let's add missing record of files from June 22-26):
That means 323*5=1615 Got added in 5 days making the sum as 6265+1615=7885.

So, Total number of applications today before the draw were 7885,
and after the draw almost all of the 462+ profiles have got the ITAs. Hence, the remaining applications into the system are in the range of 451-462 as 2915+1615=4530

Now, its difficult to classify these profiles as per the CRS distribution without knowing the exact figures. Also, taking the tie-breaking rule into consideration this figure might be slightly variable.

Correct me if I've missed something.!! :)

Edit: If this trend of 323 continues then the number of applications entering into the pool till 10 july will rise to 323*14=4522

So, the total number of applications for 10 July draw will be 4530+4522=9052

Which is way too much!!!!
Click to expand...
Hi,

in this draw there were 6265 candidates
but of you remember
in last pool the total was : 5934 candidates oout of which 3350 gone which means total is 2584

Now from current pool 6265 you need to deduct this 2584 because they were backlog and carry forward in this draw

So in 14 days 6265 - 2584 = 3681 were added

3681/14 = 262.9 every dday

then from 22 to 26 = 5 * 263 = 1314.6 == 1315

Now, the total is 3681 + 1315 = 4995 people

Now the backlog is 6265 - 3350 = 2915

Then in next draw that is on 10th July : the pool will be 2915 + 4995 = 7910 people approx

assuming 263 added per day
 
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C

chiboy4761

Full Member
Jun 26, 2019
30
5
My crs score is 465 and I submitted my profile on May 14th but I still haven't gotten an invitation to apply. will i be affected by the tiebreaker. Please guys help a brother I need an answer so I know where I stand
 
W

WantToImmigrate

Champion Member
Feb 4, 2019
1,076
534
chiboy4761 said:
My crs score is 465 and I submitted my profile on May 14th but I still haven't gotten an invitation to apply. will i be affected by the tiebreaker. Please guys help a brother I need an answer so I know where I stand
Click to expand...
Wait for 24 hours.. if you don't get an ITA by then, raise a ticket
 
A

Angel1113

Hero Member
Jun 6, 2019
808
937
Ontario
Category........
CEC
NOC Code......
4212
AOR Received.
24 June 2020
Med's Done....
05-06-2020
I have score of 456. I got R8 L9 S7.5 & W7 in first attempt. I still have a year of work permit left but my ielts is expiring on 20th of August. What should I do?? I live in northern ontario so I have to go to Toronto for Ielts test which is far. I was hoping to get an ITA before that but feel really sad now. Please advice!!!
 
T

tani_

Star Member
May 3, 2019
57
33
chiboy4761 said:
My crs score is 465 and I submitted my profile on May 14th but I still haven't gotten an invitation to apply. will i be affected by the tiebreaker. Please guys help a brother I need an answer so I know where I stand
Click to expand...



You will get it within 24 hours. Tie breaker is for those with CRS 462
 
M

Mspa

Star Member
May 28, 2019
64
22
Dheana90 said:
Hi guys, I have made some estimation of the cut off score for for 121 draw which hopefully should happen on 10th July based on the previous CRS distribution as follow.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315

It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)

By 12th June, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =448 (288 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7001 (5,646 + 1355(271x5))
441-450 = 6460 (6,315 + 145(29x5))

After the 12th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution should be:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-448=2902)
451-600 = 4,099 (7001 - 2902)
441-450 =6460

June 21st CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =285
451-600 =5,980
441-450 =6,775

It means, in 9 days from 12th June to 21th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (285/9)
451-600 =209prof/day(5980-4099=881/9)
441-450 =24profile/day (6,775-6460=215/9)

By 26th June, the score distribution would be:
601-1,200 =445 (285 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7025 (5,980 + 1045(209x5))
441-450 = 6895(6,775 + 120(29x5))

After the 26th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-445=2905)
451-600 = 4,120 (7025- 2905)
441-450 =6,895

The 4,120 in the (451-600) are those sitting at 451-462 only. The density of these scores are unknown. Maybe most of them are sitting at 450s or 460s. No one really know.

By 10th July, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200= 448 (32x14days)
451-600= 7046 (4,120+ 2926(209x14)
441-450= 7301(6,895+ 406(29x14)

Approximately:
With 3350 ITAs
The cutoff score is 458-460

With 3500 ITAs
The cutoff score is 455-457

With 3750 ITAs
The cutoff score is 452-454

With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score is 449-453.

This is only estimation guys. So the cutoff score may will be lower on the draw date. So, look at this as worse case scenario only.




Good analysis.I hope next draw come with 3900 ITAs
Click to expand...
 
W

WantToImmigrate

Champion Member
Feb 4, 2019
1,076
534
Angel1113 said:
I have score of 456. I got R8 L9 S7.5 & W7 in first attempt. I still have a year of work permit left but my ielts is expiring on 20th of August. What should I do?? I live in northern ontario so I have to go to Toronto for Ielts test which is far. I was hoping to get an ITA before that but feel really sad now. Please advice!!!
Click to expand...
Start preparing for IELTS..Wait for 3 more draws.. if you don't get an ITA by then, book the exam
 
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C

crs2019

Newbie
Jun 26, 2019
6
0
Hi, my score is 461. I missed today's draw. I am super worried as my birthday is on July 11th and the next draw on July 10th. How does the decrease in points work? How many points will I lose and will I lose it after 11th? Will I still get the ITA if the cut off next time is 461 and the next day there will be a decrease in points? In case I get ITA next time for 461 points, will my application be rejected due to a decrease in points after getting ITA?
 
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