Ray of Hope - 121st Draw

[Kenneth89]

How are we sure the CRS score will drop below 460 before the nxt pnp draw

 

[crjusuf]

Hi, my score is 461. I missed today's draw. I am super worried as my birthday is on July 11th and the next draw on July 10th. How does the decrease in points work? How many points will I lose and will I lose it after 11th? Will I still get the ITA if the cut off next time is 461 and the next day there will be a decrease in points? In case I get ITA next time for 461 points, will my application be rejected due to a decrease in points after getting ITA?

Welcome to the forum, I see that this is your first post!

You will get a happy birthday gift from IRCC with a decrease in points on your birthday. If you made the cutoff for July 10th invitation, then the VO will more than likely make exception for the decrease in points and therefore your application will not be rejected because of the decrease in points that happened after the invitation. I'm in the same situation soon with the same score, hopefully we'll get it in the next one!

 

[Kenneth89]

I guess the PNP draw will be in August

 

[marunine281]

My score is 499 and am waiting for an ITA. I tried logging into my cic account, but i could not. After inputting ID and PW and hitting log in, I was kicked out and return to the top page.

 

[Nsidhu]

I really don't think that was a smart way of answering my question. I actually posted using my phone but it didn't come up here so i used my laptop. People make mistakes right. That was just really wrong coming for an old member of this forum.

i got it just now..

 

[marunine281]

Got it now!!!!!!!

 

[crjusuf]

Ray of Hope 121, our home for another 2 weeks

 

[crjusuf]

Got it now!!!!!!!

Congratulations, all the best for preparing your documents if you haven't already!

 

[chiboy4761]

Thanks all for the response, I really appreciate the amount of knowledge I've gained just by reading all your comments. Guess its time stop by for a bottle of cold beer.

i got it just now..

ITA JUST CAME IN NOW FOLKS

 

[crjusuf]

i got it just now..

Congratulations, you should update your signature ITA received!!

 

[Dark_Night]

Hi guys, I have made some estimation of the cut off score for for 121 draw which hopefully should happen on 10th July based on the previous CRS distribution as follow.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315

It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)

By 12th June, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =448 (288 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7001 (5,646 + 1355(271x5))
441-450 = 6460 (6,315 + 145(29x5))

After the 12th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution should be:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-448=2902)
451-600 = 4,099 (7001 - 2902)
441-450 =6460

June 21st CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =285
451-600 =5,980
441-450 =6,775

It means, in 9 days from 12th June to 21th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (285/9)
451-600 =209prof/day(5980-4099=881/9)
441-450 =24profile/day (6,775-6460=215/9)

By 26th June, the score distribution would be:
601-1,200 =445 (285 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7025 (5,980 + 1045(209x5))
441-450 = 6895(6,775 + 120(29x5))

After the 26th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-445=2905)
451-600 = 4,120 (7025- 2905)
441-450 =6,895

The 4,120 in the (451-600) are those sitting at 451-462 only. The density of these scores are unknown. Maybe most of them are sitting at 450s or 460s. No one really know.

By 10th July, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200= 448 (32x14days)
451-600= 7046 (4,120+ 2926(209x14)
441-450= 7301(6,895+ 406(29x14)

Approximately:
With 3350 ITAs
The cutoff score is 458-460

With 3500 ITAs
The cutoff score is 455-457

With 3750 ITAs
The cutoff score is 452-454

With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score is 449-453.

This is only estimation guys. So the cutoff score may will be lower on the draw date. So, look at this as worse case scenario only.

"
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315

It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)"

Keep in mind that the published number of candidates on the 29th of May was as at the previous Friday (24 May), so you should be using 14 days and not 9 when working out the number of candidates per day. It sometimes makes more sense when you do these calcs in a spreadsheet so you can check your numbers.

My predicted cut-off is also between 458 and 460 at 3350 ITAs, but if there is an influx as a result of those PNPs it could be 461.

 

[crjusuf]

Thanks all for the response, I really appreciate the amount of knowledge I've gained just by reading all your comments. Guess its time stop by for a bottle of cold beer.

ITA JUST CAME IN NOW FOLKS

Have a cold one for all of us still waiting for our turn, good luck in preparing your documents if you haven't already!

 

[Nsidhu]

Congratulations, you should update your signature ITA received!!

haha i have everything ready.. just need to go home and submit... then will update directly AOR

 

[DreamITA]

guys i'm really torn. i've already asked this question a million times but i'm still hesitant. I was at 450 and i lost to the tiebreaker. I managed to go up to 460 and only then the score jumped to 470. I have been waiting in the pool for 3 months now and i really can't take anymore bad surprises. A friend of mine keeps pressing me to re-sit for the ielts. I managed to get clb 9/9/10/10 without any preparation on my first try. If this time i get all 10s my score will go up to 466.
the next exam is scheduled for 7 july and the last date to sign up is 29 june. It can go either way; i sign up for IELTS and get drawn on july 10th anyway before even getting my results back OR the score doesn"t go below 461 for one or 2 draws so boosting my score even by 3 points will come in handy.

 

[Punitsingh]

The current inflow of applicants into the pool is as below:

On June 21 (5 days advance data)
5980+285=6265

After the draw 3350 files out of these got cleared, reducing the figures as 6265-3350=2915

It means 2915/9=323.889 Profiles got added in 9 days.

Now, the data as of 26 June (let's add missing record of files from June 22-26):
That means 323*5=1615 Got added in 5 days making the sum as 6265+1615=7885.

So, Total number of applications today before the draw were 7885,
and after the draw almost all of the 462+ profiles have got the ITAs. Hence, the remaining applications into the system are in the range of 451-462 as 2915+1615=4530

Now, its difficult to classify these profiles as per the CRS distribution without knowing the exact figures. Also, taking the tie-breaking rule into consideration this figure might be slightly variable.

Correct me if I've missed something.!!

Edit: If this trend of 323 continues then the number of applications entering into the pool till 10 july will rise to 323*14=4522

So, the total number of applications for 10 July draw will be 4530+4522=9052

Which is way too much!!!!

I politely disagree with above calculations on below point:
The calculation 2915/9 = 323.xxx doesn’t look correct i.e the figure 2915 is wrong.

Correct calculation is below:
451+ on 7th jun: 5646+288= 5934
Considering previous per day addition, 451+ added in next 5 days: 303*5= 1515
Hence 451+ on 12th June: 5934+ 1515= 7449
451+ after 12th June draw: 7449-3350= 4099
451+ on 21st June: 5980+285= 6265
Addition from 12th to 26th June: 6265-4099= 2166
Per day addition in 9 days: 2166/9= 241

Great to see it decreased from 303 to 241

Can somebody check, is ielts result date playing any role in these fluctuations?
Ielts results announced from 12 th to 21st jun= ????
Ielts results announced from 22nd to 26th June =????
It would be of great help if somebody helps to get this data.

We need to figure out why per day score changed from 240 to 303 and then back to 240.

One more thing, looking at just 2.28 CRS points decrease from 465 to 462, I am sure that per day addition was not 240 from 21st June to 26th June, it must have been much higher

I may be wrong in above calculation, any correction is welcomed. Let us correct each other and improve!