Hi guys, I have made some estimation of the cut off score for for 121 draw which hopefully should happen on 10th July based on the previous CRS distribution as follow.
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315
It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:
601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)
By 12th June, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =448 (288 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7001 (5,646 + 1355(271x5))
441-450 = 6460 (6,315 + 145(29x5))
After the 12th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution should be:
601-1,200 = 0 (3350-448=2902)
451-600 = 4,099 (7001 - 2902)
441-450 =6460
June 21st CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =285
451-600 =5,980
441-450 =6,775
It means, in 9 days from 12th June to 21th June, there were:
601-1,200 = 32profile/day (285/9)
451-600 =209prof/day(5980-4099=881/9)
441-450 =24profile/day (6,775-6460=215/9)
By 26th June, the score distribution would be:
601-1,200 =445 (285 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7025 (5,980 + 1045(209x5))
441-450 = 6895(6,775 + 120(29x5))
After the 26th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3350-445=2905)
451-600 = 4,120 (7025- 2905)
441-450 =6,895
The 4,120 in the (451-600) are those sitting at 451-462 only. The density of these scores are unknown. Maybe most of them are sitting at 450s or 460s. No one really know.
By 10th July, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200= 448 (32x14days)
451-600= 7046 (4,120+ 2926(209x14)
441-450= 7301(6,895+ 406(29x14)
Approximately:
With 3350 ITAs
The cutoff score is 458-460
With 3500 ITAs
The cutoff score is 455-457
With 3750 ITAs
The cutoff score is 452-454
With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score is 449-453.
This is only estimation guys. So the cutoff score may will be lower on the draw date. So, look at this as worse case scenario only.