Ray of Hope - 120th Draw

[13nitinsharma]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS

(Updated till 11:30 AM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:

• 460+ (Total 12) - Nsidhu: 463 | Ontario@Canada: 463 | Jabya: 463 | aartivig289: 463 | huesso: 462 | Mr_fabrizio: 462 | sudhach91: 462 | Kiran9999: 462 | ajangbar001: 461 | meet0708: 461 | parth7d: 461 | Yukti2406: 461

• 455-460 (Total 22) – DreamITA: 460 | epema.kz: 460 | Punitsingh: 459 | nadal87: 459 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | Kenneth89: 458 | #EEC: 457 | sarak1812: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | tharibak: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Angel1113: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | Folaroyal: 455 | yigitsk: 455

• 450-454 (Total 30) - chirag171987: 454 | atuls: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | madhav_91: 453 | vivosvoco: 453 | Teenz: 453 | Suhasrs: 452 | ArsheyaBegum: 452 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | praveen22: 451 | captainUT: 451 | tonydlaw24: 451 | 13nitinsharma: 450 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Shaanoh: 449 | Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 |nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | Tivativalu: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | Ranjitrip: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | LKRYA: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | SASH8288: 446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | Yiss: 445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 | MarvelousMitz: 445

• 441-444 (Total 36) - NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441

• 435-440 (Total 16) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435

• Below 435 (Total 5) - Life79: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Yes understood my birthday is on 16 Oct and ill loose 5 points post the same. Post receipt of ITA, even if documents are not submitted, CRS score will not bee impacted, is the understanding correct ?

Post ITA, once you submit your application and receive AOR, then only all your information is locked in EE system.

 

[NikSharma01]

Estimation for 26th June CRS score distribution based on previous CRS datas:
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 24, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624
441-450 5,872

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 10, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 317
451-600 1,668
441-450 5,360

Means in 14 days from May 10th to May 24th there were about:

601-1,200: (729-317= 412/14days = 29profile/day

451-600: (4624-1668=2957/14days = 211profile/day)

441-450: (5872-5360 = 510/14days = 36profile/day

So, by 29th May, the distribution will be approximately:

600-1200: 729 + 145 (29profile x 5days) = 874

451-600: 4,624 + 1055(211profilex5days ) = 5679

441-450: 5872 + 180(36profilex5day) =6052

Number of nvitation issued on 29th May is 3350. So, the 874profile with 600+points would have all received ITA. (3350-874 =2476)

Remaining 2476 will be taken from 451-600point range. So 5679-2476= 3203.

Therefore, after the invitation round on 29th May,the score distribution would be:

600+ = 0
451-600 =3203
441-450=6052

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315

It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)

By 12th June, the score distribution would be:
601-1,200 =448 (288 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7001 (5,646 + 1355(271x5))
441-450 = 6460 (6,315 + 145(29x5))

After the 12th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution should be:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-448=2902)
451-600 = 4,099 (7001 - 2902)
441-450 =6460

By 26th June, the scores will be:

601-1,200 = 448 (32 x14days)
451-600 = 7893 (4099 +(271x14=3794))
441-450 = 6866 (6460+ (29x17=406))

I think cutoff score will still be above 460 for 26th June draw.

Highly scrutinised and logical calculations I've seen so far. Well done dear!

However, remember that as the influx of applicants is increasing day by day, similarly a number of profiles are being expired each day. So, we can't completely rely on these figures, but yes with the help of these we may have only an estimate about the approximate number of applicants into the pool at the moment, not the exact details !

 

[NikSharma01]

Yes understood my birthday is on 16 Oct and ill loose 5 points post the same. Post receipt of ITA, even if documents are not submitted, CRS score will not bee impacted, is the understanding correct ?

As long as you've submitted your corresponding docs to claim the respective CRS before your birth date and have assigned with the e-AOR,, your profile will be locked, thus your score won't be impacted post the birthday.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Estimation for 26th June CRS score distribution based on previous CRS datas:
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 24, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624
441-450 5,872

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 10, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 317
451-600 1,668
441-450 5,360

Means in 14 days from May 10th to May 24th there were about:

601-1,200: (729-317= 412/14days = 29profile/day

451-600: (4624-1668=2957/14days = 211profile/day)

441-450: (5872-5360 = 510/14days = 36profile/day

So, by 29th May, the distribution will be approximately:

600-1200: 729 + 145 (29profile x 5days) = 874

451-600: 4,624 + 1055(211profilex5days ) = 5679

441-450: 5872 + 180(36profilex5day) =6052

Number of nvitation issued on 29th May is 3350. So, the 874profile with 600+points would have all received ITA. (3350-874 =2476)

Remaining 2476 will be taken from 451-600point range. So 5679-2476= 3203.

Therefore, after the invitation round on 29th May,the score distribution would be:

600+ = 0
451-600 =3203
441-450=6052

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315

It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)

By 12th June, the score distribution would be:
601-1,200 =448 (288 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7001 (5,646 + 1355(271x5))
441-450 = 6460 (6,315 + 145(29x5))

After the 12th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution should be:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-448=2902)
451-600 = 4,099 (7001 - 2902)
441-450 =6460

By 26th June, the scores will be:

601-1,200 = 448 (32 x14days)
451-600 = 7893 (4099 +(271x14=3794))
441-450 = 6866 (6460+ (29x17=406))

I think cutoff score will still be above 460 for 26th June draw.

Good Job done with great data points!

Yes, cut-off will be CRS: 459-461 with 3,350 ITA’s for June 26th draw.

 

[NikSharma01]

Is it possible to do a prediction for July draws considering the cut-off for next draw is 460.

Yes, at this point we can make the predictions only, as the score would be hovering in the 455-460 range during July. Maybe lower as well if there is an increase in the ITAs!

 

[LKRYA]

Good Job done with great data points!

Yes, cut-off will be CRS: 459-461 with 3,350 ITA’s for June 26th draw.

I wish all the lower mark of these prediction will be the next CRS score.

 

[Dheana90]

Good Job done with great data points!

Yes, cut-off will be CRS: 459-461 with 3,350 ITA’s for June 26th draw.

Thank you, dear.

 

[Dheana90]

Highly scrutinised and logical calculations I've seen so far. Well done dear!

However, remember that as the influx of applicants is increasing day by day, similarly a number of profiles are being expired each day. So, we can't completely rely on these figures, but yes with the help of these we may have only an estimate about the approximate number of applicants into the pool at the moment, not the exact details !

Yes. Thank you,dear.

I think my estimate should be called "the worse case scenario estimate", hahaha

I know these scores estimate quite scary to see but the exact number of applicants in the pool should be better than these estimate. As we can see from the current round, even though the ITA number stayed at 3350 and the range of 451-600 was (5000+), the cutoff score still drop by 5points, so it means the density of applicants with score of 465 and above is decreasing. If CIC conducts regular biweekly draw, even with 3350 ITAs per draw should be good to bring the score down faster. BUT, the higher ITA number the better of course. I would love to see an increase in ITA number from next draw until the end of the year,though. Amen.

 

[Dheana90]

I wish all the lower mark of these prediction will be the next CRS score.

Amen to that. Highly possible considering the influx of applicants with high score decreases and if the number of ITA increases, the cutoff score should drop further, I believe .

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

He is correct in saying that. I have been in Canada for 5 years and trust me, its not a place for a non-IT or non-banking person.

Okay guys. That's it. The oracles are here. The truth has been spoken.

Non IT, Non Banking boys, let's go home. It's over.

 

[crjusuf]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS

(Updated till 11:30 AM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:

• 460+ (Total 12) - Nsidhu: 463 | Ontario@Canada: 463 | Jabya: 463 | aartivig289: 463 | huesso: 462 | Mr_fabrizio: 462 | sudhach91: 462 | Kiran9999: 462 | ajangbar001: 461 | meet0708: 461 | parth7d: 461 | Yukti2406: 461

• 455-460 (Total 22) – DreamITA: 460 | epema.kz: 460 | Punitsingh: 459 | nadal87: 459 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | Kenneth89: 458 | #EEC: 457 | sarak1812: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | tharibak: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Angel1113: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | Folaroyal: 455 | yigitsk: 455

• 450-454 (Total 30) - chirag171987: 454 | atuls: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | madhav_91: 453 | vivosvoco: 453 | Teenz: 453 | Suhasrs: 452 | ArsheyaBegum: 452 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | praveen22: 451 | captainUT: 451 | tonydlaw24: 451 | 13nitinsharma: 450 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Shaanoh: 449 | Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 |nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | Tivativalu: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | Ranjitrip: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | LKRYA: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | SASH8288: 446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | Yiss: 445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 | MarvelousMitz: 445

• 441-444 (Total 36) - NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441

• 435-440 (Total 16) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435

• Below 435 (Total 5) - Life79: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

455

 

[Dheana90]

Okay guys. That's it. The oracles are here. The truth has been spoken.

Non IT, Non Banking boys, let's go home. It's over.

Bahaha...I'm ROTFL when reading your post, hahahaha...Just ignore them,dear

 

[crjusuf]

I am currently at 458 and my birthday is on 28th July.
In case if there will be 3 draws of 3350 until then do I have a chance to make it before that.

We share the same birthday!

 

[donsyete]

Wow what a finding only IT people will find a job , don't get me wrong Indian job market and society is sick of this IT people what if someone is not interested in IT , do u think there is only IT job available in Canada , if u know how to drill u will get job , if u how to plast u will find a job well u could even get job of paper boy and live decently,,, world is not only IT , in India its the best paying job and in Ontario there are only IT job ???
That was a horrible finding if u are a nurse or physiotherapist u are much better of than an IT guy with much more job security, even plastic injection moulding operator earns much much better ,,, another fun fact an electronics or mechanical engineer or civil engineer becomes an IT professional in India

I agree that hi-tech and financial sector are more dominant in high-paying job markets. But some of us want to live here because we love other aspects of Canada as well, not just the career. No matter what industry you work in, you will need all other services and products to live to you fullest extend in Canada, and that's also the market and the source of employment.

Totally agree with this. I have a lot of friends and relatives in Canada who just recently migrated to Canada in the past 5 years. They are all doing well. And I am talking about all over Canada (Toronto, Windsor, Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg). I am just shock that one person would think that the world operates mostly with IT peeps. Let us not diminish or downgrade the importance of other profession and its demand in Canada. Healthcare professionals and Engineers (Mechanical, ECE and civil) are highly in demand in many parts of Canada. Even wide ranges of jobs for butchers, applied science graduates are very much available. Hence, the different requirements in PNP.

The stress of unemployment coupled with an extremely high cost of living along with a bleak and cold weather means people quickly go into depression if they can't land jobs soon.
For people who are moving from usa and have dollars saved up they will be ok. But immigrants from south asia will be in for a shock.

Totally agree not everyone can cope up with the challenge especially if they have kept a closed mindset. They should be open to do anything first upon landing but will eventually land their dream job. I know that this is for a fact because a lot of my friends and relatives have done this path. Again, why would you assume ONLY people coming from the USA have enough dollars saved up? Isn't the requirement for an EE applicant is to have enough money to settle in Canada in the 1st few month, hence, the need to bring real money and not loaned money? I think I could say for a lot of South Asians that they save and prepare well for migration. So it is unfair to say SOUTH ASIANs will be in for a shock. It is like saying that they have less savings and are less knowledgeable of the challenge. You will be shocked that a lot of South Asians are well off and are migrating not solely for the job but for the environment, weather and great benefits. Please do not give the idea that South Asians are poor and only migrate because they need to earn immediately and would tend to go back home if they cant find their dream job in Canada.

I think we should not be stating this type of generalization. Everyone applying thru the EE have saved up well enough to be able to settle down in Canada and be secured in the first few months. At least, I know that is the case from all my friends and relatives who have gone through the same process and are now in Canada, and also to those I know now who are all waiting for PR approval after AOR.