Ray of Hope - 120th Draw

[crjusuf]

I agree that hi-tech and financial sector is more dominant in high-paying job markets. But some of us want to live here because we love other aspects of Canada as well, not just the career. No matter what industry you work in, you will need all other services and products to live to you fullest extend in Canada, and that's also the market and the source of employment.

I agree with you, there are tons of other industries supporting the banking and IT sector. While it may not be as lucrative as the banking and IT sector, they all play an important role in the macro economic sense of things.

 

[LKRYA]

When there was no need for a B2B draw it happened on Jan 30. And when there is much need for a B2B draw now, it is not happening.

When there was no need for a increased number of ITAs (3900), it happened in Jan. When there is much need for increased number of ITAs now, it is not happening.

 

[Borasantamora1]

When there was no need for a B2B draw it happened on Jan 30. And when there is much need for a B2B draw now, it is not happening.

When there was no need for a increased number of ITAs (3900), it happened in Jan. When there is much need for increased number of ITAs now, it is not happening.

What does "B2B" draw mean ??

 

[Angel1113]

What does "B2B" draw mean ??

Back to back draw. Means draw after one week of time instead of biweekly.

 

[navinball]

I agree with you, there are tons of other industries supporting the banking and IT sector. While it may not be as lucrative as the banking and IT sector, they all play an important role in the macro economic sense of things.

The stress of unemployment coupled with an extremely high cost of living along with a bleak and cold weather means people quickly go into depression if they can't land jobs soon.
For people who are moving from usa and have dollars saved up they will be ok. But immigrants from south asia will be in for a shock.

 

[BLACKPILL]

The May draw is still to be blamed. Last draw there was 2000 people left and now there is 2600ish left. I think the 470 scared people and increased the intake of applicants. I am at 456, presumably 1800th within that 2600, and next draw there will be around 2-3k people added to 450+, and lets say half of them are higher than 457, I am at 1800+1600=3400th with 3350 invitations. Plus some uncertainty of 500, I believe anyone with 455 plus should not worry. My internal ranking is slowing increasing by couple hundred each time. Points will still drop to around 463-460 next round, and I will be invited by the end of August if they don't do any stupid special program. I am flying back to Hong Kong this August and hopefully I can get ITA, Hong Kong is not doing well when CCP is trying to take over.

 

[Dheana90]

Estimation for 26th June CRS score distribution based on previous CRS datas:
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 24, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624
441-450 5,872

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 10, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 317
451-600 1,668
441-450 5,360

Means in 14 days from May 10th to May 24th there were about:

601-1,200: (729-317= 412/14days = 29profile/day

451-600: (4624-1668=2957/14days = 211profile/day)

441-450: (5872-5360 = 510/14days = 36profile/day

So, by 29th May, the distribution will be approximately:

600-1200: 729 + 145 (29profile x 5days) = 874

451-600: 4,624 + 1055(211profilex5days ) = 5679

441-450: 5872 + 180(36profilex5day) =6052

Number of nvitation issued on 29th May is 3350. So, the 874profile with 600+points would have all received ITA. (3350-874 =2476)

Remaining 2476 will be taken from 451-600point range. So 5679-2476= 3203.

Therefore, after the invitation round on 29th May,the score distribution would be:

600+ = 0
451-600 =3203
441-450=6052

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315

It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)

By 12th June, the score distribution would be:
601-1,200 =448 (288 + 160(32x5days))
451-600 =7001 (5,646 + 1355(271x5))
441-450 = 6460 (6,315 + 145(29x5))

After the 12th June draw, with only 3350 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution should be:

601-1,200 = 0 (3350-448=2902)
451-600 = 4,099 (7001 - 2902)
441-450 =6460

By 26th June, the scores will be:

601-1,200 = 448 (32 x14days)
451-600 = 7893 (4099 +(271x14=3794))
441-450 = 6866 (6460+ (29x17=406))

I think cutoff score will still be above 460 for 26th June draw.

 

[zabrodov]

As for the processing time, varies from case to case. Some cases warrant in depth scrutiny that adds extra time to the clock. But usually in most cases takes 4-6 months after submitting e-apr and filing the requisite fees before your passport is ready to be stamped.

It’s around 6.5 - 9 months now

 

[Dheana90]

as per my understanding

2003 left on 29th May is very clear irrespective of people added between 24th to 29th because they are considered in the next draw calculation
along with 14 days calculation from 25th till 7th June.

Whoever adds profile between 24th to 29th May hardly matters because they are included on 2003.

See please understand the 5353 people were there in the pool til 24th but the draw was on 29th May
which clearly means if between 24th to 29th May anyone added the profile they were in that 2003 population.

And no one got ITA who was above 470 and added between 24th to 29th because the tie breaker was 23rd May

So, he was there with us till today in that 2003 pool leftover and probably he is removed from the pool today.

I hope I am able to convey my calculation

Please feel free to comment and advise

You have to count the profile added between 7th and 12th June. Please read the paragraph under CRS distribution table below:

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
401-450 36,457
441-450 6,315
431-440 9,609
421-430 6,444
411-420 6,726
401-410 7,363
351-400 40,605
391-400 7,181
381-390 8,669
371-380 8,318
361-370 8,533
351-360 7,904
301-350 23,300
0-300 3,632
Total 109,928
The numbers in this table reflect the total number of people in the pool overall, a few days before an invitation round. The score distribution may change as people submit new profiles and other profiles expire.

 

[Dheana90]

I have a question- when we are assuming applicants being added everyday, the CRS distribution table is as of June 7th, i.e. after the tie breaker day, but there are people above the cut-off who applied after June 7th who will receive ITAs in this draw, they should not be included in the applicants in pool as of today, right? I mean if we don't know the number of people who entered the pool above 465 after June 7th, we would not have a clear estimate of people(451 plus) being there in the pool as on June 12th.
Sorry I'm not really familiar with the calculations, just confused about this.

Tie breaker rules only applies to people who have the same cutoff score on the tie breaker date. E.g. if 2 people have the same score 465 that are sitting on the 3350 rank on the tie breaker date(6th June), the system will pick the one who submit the profile first. For example, suppose on June 6th, the tie breaker date, one submitted profile at 13:51:59 and one submitted at 13:52:05 so, the one submitted at 13:51:59 would received the ITA as s/he entered the pool first.

Tie break do not apply to people who have score above the cutoff score as they will be automatically selected for being above the cutoff score regardless of their profile submission (after the tie breaker date).

 

[WantToImmigrate]

12 hours in and 12 pages of ROH thread.. Trolls active.. old trolls from new troll profiles.. new troll profiles responding to posts from old troll profiles.. vice versa..

3200 ITAs.. 369+1.. That's a hoot and a half!

There are jobs for you.. but target a province.. search for your job in your domain/technology/role/profile.. on Indeed or company website

Hope for the best! Immigrate!

 

[Tg123]

We are sitting on 459... any chance in next two draws?

 

[royalking]

canada is inviting all these candidates without a proper plan. A lot of these folks in non IT fields won't find a job, will quickly exhaust their savings and return back.

Wow what a finding only IT people will find a job , don't get me wrong Indian job market and society is sick of this IT people what if someone is not interested in IT , do u think there is only IT job available in Canada , if u know how to drill u will get job , if u how to plast u will find a job well u could even get job of paper boy and live decently,,, world is not only IT , in India its the best paying job and in Ontario there are only IT job ???
That was a horrible finding if u are a nurse or physiotherapist u are much better of than an IT guy with much more job security, even plastic injection moulding operator earns much much better ,,, another fun fact an electronics or mechanical engineer or civil engineer becomes an IT professional in India

 

[sarak1812]

You have to count the profile added between 7th and 12th June. Please read the paragraph under CRS distribution table below:

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
401-450 36,457
441-450 6,315
431-440 9,609
421-430 6,444
411-420 6,726
401-410 7,363
351-400 40,605
391-400 7,181
381-390 8,669
371-380 8,318
361-370 8,533
351-360 7,904
301-350 23,300
0-300 3,632
Total 109,928
The numbers in this table reflect the total number of people in the pool overall, a few days before an invitation round. The score distribution may change as people submit new profiles and other profiles expire.

Yes I did admit my wrong calculation of the number of people in pool ..
I agree with your calculation

 

[WantToImmigrate]

We are sitting on 459... any chance in next two draws?

Any chance - in case there are regular fortnightly draws, strictly my opinion - yes there are chances..
If not, could be sometime towards end or mid July