Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[skg1988]

From the point of view of elections, it's in the interest of the ruling government to increase PNPs and decrease direct ITAs. It is so because PNPs are more tailored to the needs of the province.

Every government plays vote bank politics. Look at Modi. Liberals are no different.

So far as I know CIC has different targets for PNPs. The target we are talking about is the Federal one. Did you mean 600+ candidates are being counted under the 81400 target?

 

[skg1988]

From my little understanding, the target is for immigration, ITAs are just invitations. They probably issued more ITAs because some were declined/ineligible/fake or whatever.

So as long as every ITA is accepted and ok, they will probably not go over the target.

Since we don't know statistics for the amount currently accepted, we can only speculate that if they are not issuing more ITAs is because they are on target.

I personally don't think it is about being welcoming or friendly or whatever, they are just people doing their jobs. If you were in their place and everything looks good, why would you send more/less ITAs? They don't want to go over the target or stay behind it. They will just adjust the draw sizes/frequency based on the current successful ITAs and immigration target.

IMO this time we had 4 weeks without draw was just to compensate the b2b draw we had earlier this year.

Or maybe they are just waiting for elections to increase draw size/frequency, maybe to appeal to currently citizens who were immigrants to vote in favour of the current government when they increase draw size or to send the bulk of post-ITA processing to the next government. I don't know, these are just speculations based on the worst of people I've seen on politics, I highly doubt they are like that.

Nevertheless, the 600+ candidates (12%-15% ) are known and they come under the PNP program so there has to be a minimum increase of 12-15 % in the 2019 targeted ITAs.

 

[sarak1812]

Next cutoff is 466 (+1/-1)
If held on 12th June .

455+ have to wait till July end probably there could be a possibility if 2 weeks schedule is followed

 

[Hopeful007]

1400 PNP issued to express entry candidates,whats our hope in the coming draw,I am on CRS 458....this is quiet interesting

They don't get the points right away though, they have to go through application process before they get the 600 points.

 

[EnthuChap]

Hey Guys,

What's wrong with CIC?
The target in 2017 was 71400, but ITAs issued were = 86023
The target in 2018 was 74900, but ITAs issued were = 89800

The target was increased by 3500 in 2018, and, therefore, 3777 extra ITAs were issued as compared to 2017.

The target in 2019 is 81400, and therefore expected ITAs should be around = 89800 + 6500 (81400-74900) = 96300
Till now, in 2019, ITA issued = 34600, and expected remaiming ITAs for 2019 = 61700.

2018: the number of draws = 25. Note: although a year has 26 fortnights, by making two 3-week draws CIC could reduce the draw numbers to 25.

By May-end CIC conducted 10 draws in 2018 and issued 31000 ITAs.
By May-end CIC conducted 10 draws in 2019 and issued 34600 ITAs.

Thus, by analogy, 15 draws are left for 2019, and this should result in around 4113 ITAs per draw if ITAs are uniformly distributed.

Some may argue that CIC has already sent extra 3600 ITAs in 2019, and I agree with this. But, the target is increased by 6500 so CIC should ideally send 2900 more ITAs as compared to 2018 in the remaining draws. For this, CIC should increase 200, 2900 divided by15 (remaining draws vide supra) ITAs in each draw as compared to 2018. So now draw size should be around 3950 for next 7 draws and 4100 for the remaining 8 draws.

For 2018, the target was increased by 3500 and CIC conducted 8 draws with 3900 ITAs, (8*400). For 2019, ??????????

I am unable to understand what's there in CIC's mind. Is CIC going to increase the draw size beyond 3900? Is it planning to send ITAs uniformly throughout the remaining year? And many more.....????????????

Suraj

True bro. We are aware of the maths and their own set targets. It just makes us al wonder when they will now open the floodgates. Surely now is the right time. They are running the show and can be assumed to know more. I'm hopeful for the very reasons you mentioned.

 

[skg1988]

True bro. We are aware of the maths and their own set targets. It just makes us al wonder when they will now open the floodgates. Surely now is the right time. They are running the show and can be assumed to know more. I'm hopeful for the very reasons you mentioned.

I am afraid that CIC could do some monkey business. I think that the people with the crs score more than 440 are well-deserved to receive an ITA with the set target for 2019. After a certain time, they will start losing points and which made me worried. Although I trust the skills that CIC has to crop the best immigrants, the uniform distribution throughout the year is highly suspicious.

For example, imagine a situation where one candidate has a score of 447 and by August end he loses 5 points due to age factor, and consequently he would reach to 442. From Sep onwards, CIC increases the ITAs and cut-off reaches to 443, in that scenario how could CIC explain that they have the best policies to crop the most deserving immigrants.

 

[EnthuChap]

I am afraid that CIC could do some monkey business. I think that the people with the crs score more than 440 are well-deserved to receive an ITA with the set target for 2019. After a certain time, they will start losing points and which made me worried. Although I trust the skills that CIC has to crop the best immigrants, the uniform distribution throughout the year is highly suspicious.

For example, imagine a situation where one candidate has a score of 447 and by August end he loses 5 points due to age factor, and consequently he would reach to 442. From Sep onwards, CIC increases the ITAs and cut-off reaches to 443, in that scenario how could CIC explain that they have the best policies to crop the most deserving immigrants.

First of all, higher CRS equals the best applicant is a total rubbish. Its the popular understanding but not true. It can however, in most cases, be equated to a younger applicant. Mind you, even a PHd holder gets more than 456 and he's not young but is meritorious. CIC can still boast of admitting high calibre candidates as they would have maintained a 450+ cutoff. So if that's the objective then they tick that one off.

From the other perspective, if they cared so much about higher CRS then 438 & 439 would not have been possible. It looks largely true now that second half of the year is a game-changer and would make or break. Surely many would lose points but I suppose that must be happening to many and the spread of such loss would be uniform throughout the year. Surely, 445 and below would be worst hit by that. It seems like CIC is making their own 'Endgame'.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Congrats Nitin, btw what is your NOC code.?

0124

 

[WantToImmigrate]

Floodgates floodgates floodgates!!!!

 

[Jabya]

Hello Awesome people here! Whats the cutoff prediction for June 12th draw according to available data?

My vague guess is 465+-1...?

 

[Punitsingh]

I declined 2 ITA because I got experience points before I completed 2 years of work experience. But when I was going to accept ITA they only conducted FSW draw. Now sitting at 456 with no ITA and my IELTS is going to expire in August.

You will go through in July, don’t worry

 

[Punitsingh]

Hello Awesome people here! Whats the cutoff prediction for June 12th draw according to available data?

My vague guess is 465+-1...?

464 +-1

 

[Angel1113]

You will go through in July, don’t worry

Thank you guys for giving me hope.

 

[Jabya]

464 +-1

Okay! Thats with 3350 ITA’s right? If ITA’s are 3900 then may be cutoff will be around 461+-1...?

 

[Punitsingh]

Okay! Thats with 3350 ITA’s right? If ITA’s are 3900 then may be cutoff will be around 461+-1...?

Ya that was for 3350, CRS 464 +-1
For 3900, CRS 462 +-1