Ray of Hope - 118th Draw

[sarak1812]

Please check last september's scenario it is exactly same as our scenario

2018
19th September - 3500 ITA - 441
24th September FST draw 400 ITA
3rd October - 3900 - 445

Based on previous scenario
2019 prediction
1st May - 3350 ITA - 450
15th May FST draw 400 ITA
22nd May - 3850 ITA 454

Also, if the draw is in on 29th May then there will be definetly increase in ITA's and the score will increase to 454

 

[indpnv]

yes i meant to say decrease in crs score . because after FST draw the normal draw score was less

Nope, check the rounds again in https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/submit-profile/rounds-invitations/results-previous.html

Sep 2018 FST draw: previous FSW draw= 441 and next FSW draw = 445
May 2018 FST draw: previous FSW draw = 440 and next FSW draw = 451
Nov 2017 FST draw: previous FSW draw = 436 and next FSW draw = 458 (High score here because of the introduction of tie breaking rule)

 

[Ajib]

Please check last september's scenario it is exactly same as our scenario

2018
19th September - 3500 ITA - 441
24th September FST draw 400 ITA
3rd October - 3900 - 445

Based on previous scenario
2019 prediction
1st May - 3350 ITA - 450
15th May FST draw 400 ITA
22nd May - 3850 ITA 454

Also, if the draw is in on 29th May then there will be definetly increase in ITA's and the score will increase to 454

If it happens on the 29th, that will mean it's a month gap between regular draws, that will definitely shoot the cut off beyond just 4 points

 

[indpnv]

Please check last september's scenario it is exactly same as our scenario

2018
19th September - 3500 ITA - 441
24th September FST draw 400 ITA
3rd October - 3900 - 445

Based on previous scenario
2019 prediction
1st May - 3350 ITA - 450
15th May FST draw 400 ITA
22nd May - 3850 ITA 454

Also, if the draw is in on 29th May then there will be definetly increase in ITA's and the score will increase to 454

Not really same as our scenario. Are you sure the express entry pool is the same as September 2018?

Edit: Also, keep in mind that for the September draw, the ITAs were 3500 and it jumped to 3900 in the next draw. Currently, we are at 3350 and not sure what the number of ITAs are for the next draw.

 

[NikSharma01]

No matter how long or how they choose to do it... the next draw will NEVER be up to 460
Regards

I'm also not in favour of this situation to be real. However, in worst case if the number of ITAs doesn't increase, the cut-off could go high and touch 460.

So, the bottomline is the cut off will be in the range of 455-460!

 

[sarak1812]

Nope, check the rounds again in https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/submit-profile/rounds-invitations/results-previous.html

Sep 2018 FST draw: previous FSW draw= 441 and next FSW draw = 445
May 2018 FST draw: previous FSW draw = 440 and next FSW draw = 451
Nov 2017 FST draw: previous FSW draw = 436 and next FSW draw = 458 (High score here because of the introduction of tie breaking rule)

Shouldnt we consider only Sept 2018 ?
Sep 2018 FST draw: previous FSW draw= 441 and next FSW draw = 445

The other two had PNP category too.

Our scenario is matching to September 2018 so my prediction is
Prev FSW draw 450 - FST - NEXT FSW on 22nd May/29th May 454/455

 

[sarak1812]

Not really same as our scenario. Are you sure the express entry pool is the same as September 2018?

Edit: Also, keep in mind that for the September draw, the ITAs were 3500 and it jumped to 3900 in the next draw. Currently, we are at 3350 and not sure what the number of ITAs are for the next draw.

I am sure the ITA number will increase to atleast 3500 this time and if optimistic it would be around 3850-3900

 

[indpnv]

Shouldnt we consider only Sept 2018 ?
Sep 2018 FST draw: previous FSW draw= 441 and next FSW draw = 445

The other two had PNP category too.

Our scenario is matching to September 2018 so my prediction is
Prev FSW draw 450 - FST - NEXT FSW on 22nd May/29th May 454/455

Correct me if I am wrong, PNP happened along with the FST draw which essentially removed 200 applicants from the next FSW draw. Pretty much the same as the September draw minus the 200 PNP profiles which would have been considered in the next FSW anyway.

September one was without a PNP draw, so you the PNP profiles would have been picked on Oct 3.

 

[sarak1812]

Correct me if I am wrong, PNP happened along with the FST draw which essentially removed 200 applicants from the next FSW draw. Pretty much the same as the September draw minus the 200 PNP profiles which would have been considered in the next FSW anyway.

September one was without a PNP draw, so you the PNP profiles would have been picked on Oct 3.

Yes in September there was no PNP so PNP were picked up in Oct 3 thats why it didn't shoot up the score . it was minimal increase from 441 to 445.

The same will happen now too.

 

[NikSharma01]

Correct me if I am wrong, PNP happened along with the FST draw which essentially removed 200 applicants from the next FSW draw. Pretty much the same as the September draw minus the 200 PNP profiles which would have been considered in the next FSW anyway.

September one was without a PNP draw, so you the PNP profiles would have been picked on Oct 3.

Was it for NOI or Nomination?
In the former case, it won't affect the present applicants in the pool,
however in the latter case there could be a slight effect only.

 

[sarak1812]

I am pretty sure there will be increase in ITA's to atleast 3850 in next draw because the last draw was for only FST and it would be
unfair for FSW candidates that they are waiting for 3 weeks .
Then to compensate there will increase in number of ITA's in next draw.

 

[NikSharma01]

I am pretty sure there will be increase in ITA's to atleast 3850 in next draw because the last draw was for only FST and it would be
unfair for FSW candidates that they are waiting for 3 weeks .
Then to compensate there will increase in number of ITA's in next draw.

Yes, usually after every FST draw a surge in the ITAs has been witnessed in the previous years. So, it makes the chances bright that the ITAs will be increased in the upcoming FSW draw.

 

[indpnv]

Was it for NOI or Nomination?
In the former case, it won't affect the present applicants in the pool,
however in the latter case there could be a slight effect only.

The draw was for people with the nomination, lowest score in that draw was 902.

 

[NikSharma01]

The draw was for people with the nomination, lowest score in that draw was 902.

If I'm not wrong it was on 14 May right?

In that case, 200 profiles will be omitted from the current 451+ applicants' list. So, a slight effect would be noticed for sure.

 

[indpnv]

Yes in September there was no PNP so PNP were picked up in Oct 3 thats why it didn't shoot up the score . it was minimal increase from 441 to 445.

The same will happen now too.

Sorry, but PNP getting picked in Oct 3 = minimal increase? No, there are other factors to consider also, the # of ITAs issued before and after the FST draw and the Pool itself.