Ray of Hope - 117th Draw

[13nitinsharma]

Next draw prediction 448

It will be again 450 with 3350 ITA’s.

Backlog with 450 applicants will be cleared in 2 draws atleast (like the way they did with 451 score)

 

[Tamilan8]

Guys. Not to disappoint anyone waiting for ITA.. does upcoming election and it's results will impact express entry as a whole? I followed Alberta election closely and the way Immigration hardliners won the election is kind of frustrating.. would there be a major change to express entry program once conservatives consolidate power?

 

[jkaur95]

January 28th. Risky, right?

There was a draw on 30th Jan. why you didn’t get ITA that time?

 

[keyur sharma]

Guys. Not to disappoint anyone waiting for ITA.. does upcoming election and it's results will impact express entry as a whole? I followed Alberta election closely and the way Immigration hardliners won the election is kind of frustrating.. would there be a major change to express entry program once conservatives consolidate power?

There will be no big changes rules of Express entry but for sure CRS will go higher and they will reduce numbers of ITAs. And 99.99% conservatives will win this year.

 

[matteis]

There was a draw on 30th Jan. why you didn’t get ITA that time?

Because my score was below CRS 400 at that time. I increased to CRS 450 in March.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Hope your right, my friend. To be honest, I wasn't expecting to get through in this last draw. I thought tie-brake would be somewhere between December and January. So, I was almost sure next draw would be my time. However, this very early november tie-break date really set off a red flag for me. Little afraid that new tie-break date will be earlier in January next time. To sum up, I am not sure of anything now.

See Nov or Dec doesn't matter much because the density of 450 people before 30 Jan is much lower than density of people above 450. It's so because a lot of those who submitted before 30 Jan would have gotten through already.


Think of it like this - three months of 450 candidates before Jan 30 us equivalent in magnitude to 1/1.5 month of candidates post Jan 30.

I would say there would be at most 80-100 only ahead of you. Don't worry you will get through next time for sure.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Hey what would you say for score of 447. I have Clb 10..cant increase more

Three options -
1. Wait for a jackpot in the form of a one week draw.
2. Wait for at least three months until Aug / Sep or may be longer for the CRS to go below 447 in the normal way.
3. Learn French and increase one or two CRS points

I am not sure of other ways as it depends upon your profile. If married, can your spouse increase points through IELTS?

 

[matteis]

See Nov or Dec doesn't matter much because the density of 450 people before 30 Jan is much lower than density of people above 450. It's so because a lot of those who submitted before 30 Jan would have gotten through already.


Think of it like this - three months of 450 candidates before Jan 30 us equivalent in magnitude to 1/1.5 month of candidates post Jan 30.

I would say there would be at most 80-100 only ahead of you. Don't worry you will get through next time for sure.

Tks for the explanation. Very clear, as always. So, considering your math is correct and there are 100 candidates ahead of me, I have to hope that 451+ applicants' inflow remains under 232 per day. Is that right?

 

[EnthuChap]

For those who are interested in the CRS pattern.
Draw # Minimum CRS Score Required Date of Draw # of ITAs Issued
1 886 31-Jan-15 779
2 818 07-Feb-15 779
3 808 20-Feb-15 849 808 (*Canadian Experience Class only)
4 735 27-Feb-15 1,187
5 481 20-Mar-15 1,620
6 453 27-Mar-15 1,637
7 469 10-Apr-15 925
8 453 17-Apr-15 715
9 755 22-May-15 1,361
10 482 12-Jun-15 1,501
11 469 27-Jun-15 1,575
12 463 10-Jul-15 1,516
13 451 17-Jul-15 1,581
14 471 07-Aug-15 1,402
15 456 21-Aug-15 1,523
16 459 08-Sep-15 1,517
17 450 18-Sep-15 1,545
18 450 02-Oct-15 1,530
19 489 23-Oct-15 1,502
20 484 13-Nov-15 1,506
21 472 27-Nov-15 1,559
22 461 04-Dec-15 1,451
23 460 18-Dec-15 1,503
24 461 06-Jan-16 1,463
25 453 13-Jan-16 1,518
26 457 28-Jan-16 1,468
27 459 10-Feb-16 1,505
28 453 24-Feb-16 1,484
29 473 08-Mar-16 1,013
30 470 23-Mar-16 1,014
31 470 06-Apr-16 954
32 468 20-Apr-16 1,018
33 534 06-May-16 799
34 484 18-May-16 763
35 483 01-Jun-16 762
36 488 15-Jun-16 752
37 482 29-Jun-16 773
38 482 13-Jul-16 747
39 488 27-Jul-16 755
40 490 10-Aug-16 754
41 538 24-Aug-16 750
42 491 07-Sep-16 1,000
43 483 21-Sep-16 1,288
44 484 12-Oct-16 1,518
45 475 19-Oct-16 1,804
46 472 02-Nov-16 2,080
47 470 16-Nov-16 2,427
48 786 30-Nov-16 559 786 (*Provincial Nominee Programs only)
49 497 16-Dec-16 1,936
50 475 22-Dec-16 2,878
51 468 04-Jan-17 2,902
52 459 11-Jan-17 3,334
53 453 25-Jan-17 3,508
54 447 08-Feb-17 3,644
55 441 22-Feb-17 3,611
56 434 01-Mar-17 3,884
57 441 24-Mar-17 3,749
58 431 05-Apr-17 3,753
59 423 12-Apr-17 3,923
60 415 19-Apr-17 3,665
61 423 04-May-17 3,796
62 415 17-May-17 3,687
64 199 26-May-17 400 199 (*Federal Skilled Trades candidates only)
63 775 26-May-17 143 775 (*Provincial nominee programs only)
65 413 31-May-17 3,877
66 449 28-Jun-17 3,409
67 440 12-Jul-17 3,202
68 441 02-Aug-17 3,264
69 433 09-Aug-17 2,991
70 434 23-Aug-17 3,035
71 435 06-Sep-17 2,772
72 433 20-Sep-17 2,871
73 438 04-Oct-17 2,801
74 436 18-Oct-17 2,757
76 241 01-Nov-17 505
75 673 01-Nov-17 290
77 458 08-Nov-17 2,000
78 439 15-Nov-17 2,750
79 452 06-Dec-17 2,750
80 446 20-Dec-17 2,750
81 446 10-Jan-18 2,750
82 444 24-Jan-18 2,750
83 442 07-Feb-18 3,000
84 442 21-Feb-18 3,000
85 456 14-Mar-18 3,000
86 446 26-Mar-18 3,000
87 444 11-Apr-18 3,500
88 441 25-Apr-18 3,500
89 441 09-May-18 3,500
90 440 23-May-18 3,500
91 902 30-May-18 700 902 (*PNP only); 288 (*FST candidates only)
92 451 13-Jun-18 3,750
93 442 25-Jun-18 3,750
94 442 11-Jul-18 3,750
95 441 25-Jul-18 3,750
96 440 08-Aug-18 3,750
97 440 22-Aug-18 3,750
98 440 05-Sep-18 3,900
99 441 19-Sep-18 3,500
100 284 24-Sep-18 400 284(FST Candidate Only)
101 445 03-Oct-18 3,900
102 440 15-Oct-18 3,900
103 442 29-Oct-18 3,900
104 449 15-Nov-18 3,900
105 445 28-Nov-18 3,900
106 445 12-Dec-18 3,900
107 439 19-Dec-18 3,900
108 449 10-Jan-19 3,900
109 443 23-Jan-19 3,900
110 438 30-Jan-19 3,350
111 457 20-Feb-19 3,350
112 454 06-Mar-19 3,350
113 452 20-Mar-19 3,350
114 451 03-Apr-19 3,350
115 451 17-Apr-19 3,350
116 450 01-May-19 3,350
(Source: Facebook post by Parthas Vivek in Immigrants in Canada group)

 

[Paladin_One]

last year in January only 2750 people were invited per draw and in feb and March 3000 people were invited per draw that’s and there were 2 PNP draws where only 450 people per draw invited so to meet there goal they increase numbers of ITAs.

This year there goal is 80000 ITAs. They already sent 31250 ITAs. If they do draws with 2 week gap for the whole year there will be 16 miner draws.

16*3350=53600 ITAs
53600+31250= 84850 which is higher than there goal. So if they want to reach at there target than they do t need to increase there numbers of ITAs per draw.

The targets that have been published are for ADMISSIONS into Canada, not ITAs, that's why last year, although the target admissions level was ~75000, by December they had issued a whopping 89,800 ITAs
(https://www.cicnews.com/2018/12/canada-breaks-express-entry-invitation-record-and-drops-minimum-score-to-lowest-of-2018-1211628.html#gs.987gkz)

People reject ITAs for all sorts of reasons, and people are rejected in their applications as well.
If just 10% of people who are issued ITAs either reject them or denied; your 80000 ITA target in reality becomes 88,888 actual ITAs being issued, which means using your logic
88,888 - 31250 = 57638 / 16 = 3602 ITAs every 2 weeks, an increase on the 3,350 number

 

[Noopur_23]

Three options -
1. Wait for a jackpot in the form of a one week draw.
2. Wait for at least three months until Aug / Sep or may be longer for the CRS to go below 447 in the normal way.
3. Learn French and increase one or two CRS points

I am not sure of other ways as it depends upon your profile. If married, can your spouse increase points through IELTS?

Thanks senior stakes!
So I am not in rush.. Just will be happy to get an ITA this year before I loose another 5 points. B'day on December 23. Learning French sounds painful and bugging spouse to score higher even more (with the crazy work schedules). So wondering whether to peace out for a while or choose my battles carefully But will be very disappointed I end up not getting an ITA at all this. I didn't expect myself to be in this spot especially after clb 10!

 

[13nitinsharma]

Hey man did you make it?

Not yet bro, I lost in tie-breaker yesterday.

May be in the next draw, I hope. Wait continues, Let's see

 

[SeniorStakes]

Tks for the explanation. Very clear, as always. So, considering your math is correct and there are 100 candidates ahead of me, I have to hope that 451+ applicants' inflow remains under 232 per day. Is that right?

Yes, absolutely

 

[13nitinsharma]

@SeniorStakes Buddy your math skills are just crazy! M not able to comprehend this pool distribution thing. Could you help me solve one riddle? With crs of 450 and submission on 28th march, do I and @DreamITA and @13nitinsharma get ITA in next draw?

Next two draws will be crucial and we'll definitely see CIC clearing the backlog of 450. The good part is, now the 450 score has been touched, it's just tie-breaker rule who will play a major role in next two draws.

If CIC keep continue with 3350 ITA's in the next two draws, then cut-off will remain at 450 and will be cleared too.

 

[winterisnotcoming]

I created my profile on 29th April , current status was submitted and date submitted was apr 29. Crs is above the 450 mark. Havent got any email uptill now.

What does Data collection date: April 26th mean?

Your help would be appreciated

1. You'll get with 24 hours.
2. Data collection means: distribution of applicants in the pool as per their respective CRS.

Is it possible to get ITA even if the profile is submitted after the data collection date? If yes, then what is the importance of the Data collection date?