Ray of Hope - 117th Draw

[hakweye]

Next draw prediction 448

With tie breaker date of Nov 2018. Next draw will be 450 unless they increase the ITA or have B2B draws

 

[jkaur95]

Another round of wait.. CRS 450, profile created on 30th Jan

 

[Ainpeespirant]

Hello! I'd like to ask a question on this forum. If one has an LMIA and gains 50 points and the LMIA is valid for only 6 months. Can we still claim 50 points after 6 months? Please reply. I'm in a similar situation and worried due to high cut offs.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Hey guys, still here. 450. Next draw will be the last one before losing points due to birthday...

What is your application submission date?

 

[SeniorStakes]

Guys,

We all know one week and three week draws are slightly inconsistent with IRCC's mandate of conducting draws in a manner which is fair to all. On this forum itself, we have seen the kind of Carnage 30 Jan draw had..Some people were left in limbo for months and others got their ITA out of nowhere.

Let's say a one week draw occurs. There are people who will enter the pool after that draw at a borderline score. They all will witness the same level of frustration we went through post 30 Jan.

Just because it's an election year and elections are hardly 5 months away, I doubt IRCC will resort to either a three-week draw or a one-week draw. They would probably wish to exemplify the way to do it consistently.

Coming to draw size, this one can increase to 3500 or even 3750 at some point in the second half of the year.

The backlog of 446-450 is around 2500. Number of draws until elections is around 11. Thus, the backlog itself will take up 230 spots of each draw if we have to consider from 445. Otherwise, from 447 onwards, the backlog will consume around 150 slots in each draw.

In addition, we should also remember that while we had 3750 / 3900 draws last year, we also had couple of three-week draws between May and October.

Thus, if the draw size increases, it would likely go beyond 3500 at least until October. Subtracting 230 from 3500 gives 3270, which is not a par score for a cut-off of 445.

Here is the summary:
1. If a one-week draw happens, good for folks above 447 as they all will get through. In this case, we should not be surprised if the next draw post this one-week draw happens to be a three-week draw and cut-off may again go to high 450s.
2. If no one-week draw until October, CRS cut-off can eventually reach 447 by October, although I think it will hover around 448 almost.

All of this is only until elections. Anything can happen afterwards.

In summary, folks below 447, I would recommend you to step up your game. Give IELTS etc. It's unfortunate that IRCC couldn't predict the current situation in Dec/Jan and resorted to draws with highly volatile CRS.

 

[nehadeep]

So again my prediction is rite. This year CRS will not go below 447.

Next draw prediction
CRS 450
ITAs 3350

What about the tie breaker date?

 

[matteis]

What is your application submission date?

January 28th. Risky, right?

 

[SeniorStakes]

January 28th. Risky, right?

No no, you should get through in the next draw. There were hardly 100-150 folks ahead of you in the yesterday's draw.

 

[keyur sharma]

What about the tie breaker date?

Tie break may be Jan 2019 with 450

 

[Noopur_23]

Guys,

We all know one week and three week draws are slightly inconsistent with IRCC's mandate of conducting draws in a manner which is fair to all. On this forum itself, we have seen the kind of Carnage 30 Jan draw had..Some people were left in limbo for months and others got their ITA out of nowhere.

Let's say a one week draw occurs. There are people who will enter the pool after that draw at a borderline score. They all will witness the same level of frustration we went through post 30 Jan.

Just because it's an election year and elections are hardly 5 months away, I doubt IRCC will resort to either a three-week draw or a one-week draw. They would probably wish to exemplify the way to do it consistently.

Coming to draw size, this one can increase to 3500 or even 3750 at some point in the second half of the year.

The backlog of 446-450 is around 2500. Number of draws until elections is around 11. Thus, the backlog itself will take up 230 spots of each draw if we have to consider from 445. Otherwise, from 447 onwards, the backlog will consume around 150 slots in each draw.

In addition, we should also remember that while we had 3750 / 3900 draws last year, we also had couple of three-week draws between May and October.

Thus, if the draw size increases, it would likely go beyond 3500 at least until October. Subtracting 230 from 3500 gives 3270, which is not a par score for a cut-off of 445.

Here is the summary:
1. If a one-week draw happens, good for folks above 447 as they all will get through. In this case, we should not be surprised if the next draw post this one-week draw happens to be a three-week draw and cut-off may again go to high 450s.
2. If no one-week draw until October, CRS cut-off can eventually reach 447 by October, although I think it will hover around 448 almost.

All of this is only until elections. Anything can happen afterwards.

In summary, folks below 447, I would recommend you to step up your game. Give IELTS etc. It's unfortunate that IRCC couldn't predict the current situation in Dec/Jan and resorted to draws with highly volatile CRS.

Hey what would you say for score of 447. I have Clb 10..cant increase more

 

[keyur sharma]

I don't agree with your assessment that because the number is currently more than last year they will not increase ITAs.
Recall that the ITA target for this year is supposed to be about 6500 higher than last year. With that in mind, isn't it likely that the pace for the remainder of the year could mimic the pace of the last year from May onwards? (i.e increased ITAs throughout the year)

last year in January only 2750 people were invited per draw and in feb and March 3000 people were invited per draw that’s and there were 2 PNP draws where only 450 people per draw invited so to meet there goal they increase numbers of ITAs.

This year there goal is 80000 ITAs. They already sent 31250 ITAs. If they do draws with 2 week gap for the whole year there will be 16 miner draws.

16*3350=53600 ITAs
53600+31250= 84850 which is higher than there goal. So if they want to reach at there target than they do t need to increase there numbers of ITAs per draw.

 

[keyur sharma]

Hello! I'd like to ask a question on this forum. If one has an LMIA and gains 50 points and the LMIA is valid for only 6 months. Can we still claim 50 points after 6 months? Please reply. I'm in a similar situation and worried due to high cut offs.

No you cannot claim 50 points.

 

[keyur sharma]

Another round of wait.. CRS 450, profile created on 30th Jan

You will get ITA soon 99% in next draw.

 

[Immigration_guru]

Hello! I'd like to ask a question on this forum. If one has an LMIA and gains 50 points and the LMIA is valid for only 6 months. Can we still claim 50 points after 6 months? Please reply. I'm in a similar situation and worried due to high cut offs.

No

 

[matteis]

No no, you should get through in the next draw. There were hardly 100-150 folks ahead of you in the yesterday's draw.

Hope your right, my friend. To be honest, I wasn't expecting to get through in this last draw. I thought tie-brake would be somewhere between December and January. So, I was almost sure next draw would be my time. However, this very early november tie-break date really set off a red flag for me. Little afraid that new tie-break date will be earlier in January next time. To sum up, I am not sure of anything now.