Thank you. Yes will definitely try. When does your profile expire?
Ray of Hope - 112th Draw
- Thread starter RitzM
- Start date
It will only cutoff if your score exactly matchs the minimum score of the draw. Otherwise, there is no need to worry about cutoff points and date of EE profile. I know many whom have submitted profiles within days of the draw and still got invited beacuse where score was ever so slightly higher than the minimum crs score of that draw
Mathematical analysis of next CRS cut-off based on statistics shared by CIC in the last draw.
There was quantitative evidence that rate of applications was very high until 14 Feb, but decreased afterwards until 20 Feb because the cut-off in the last draw was 457 only.
The ratio of incoming candidates across 441-450 : 451+ is 1:2.63 which means for every one candidate added in the range 441-450, 2.63 candidates are added with a CRS score more than 450.
Let's assume x indicates the rate of incoming candidates in the range 441-450 post 14 Feb. We were provided data for 14 Feb. Furthermore, let's assume that the rate of candidates in the range 451-460 is 0.9x. This is so because the candidate pool tends to decrease with increase in scores.
In the last draw, the cut-off was 457 so 65 percent of the candidates in the range 451-460 were included. Also, the rate of applications in the range 441-450 was 600 per week until 14 Feb. Thus, we can form this equation:
[2.63 * x * 6/7] + [2.63 * 600 * 15/7] = 3350 + [0.9 * 0.65 * x * 6/7] + [0.9 * 0.65 * 600 * 15/7]
Solving this equation yields x as 441. Thus, candidates with more than 450 in the previous draw we're 958.
Candidates with 450+ in the next draw on 6 March = 3350 - 958 - (2.63 * 2 * 411) = 3120
As the lot size on 6 March should be 3350, there is a scope or 230 more candidates below 450.
Number of candidates at 450 = 5 weeks * [(600 * 15/35) +(441 * 20/35)] / 10 = 252
Thus, we can conclude that if 3350 candidates are picked in the draw on 06 March, with the rate of applications staying the same as the rate from 14 Feb to 20 Feb, the CRS cut-off would be 450 with tie-breaker as end of February.
PS: This analysis is based on numbers alone, no emotions or any other kind of subjective bias.
There was quantitative evidence that rate of applications was very high until 14 Feb, but decreased afterwards until 20 Feb because the cut-off in the last draw was 457 only.
The ratio of incoming candidates across 441-450 : 451+ is 1:2.63 which means for every one candidate added in the range 441-450, 2.63 candidates are added with a CRS score more than 450.
Let's assume x indicates the rate of incoming candidates in the range 441-450 post 14 Feb. We were provided data for 14 Feb. Furthermore, let's assume that the rate of candidates in the range 451-460 is 0.9x. This is so because the candidate pool tends to decrease with increase in scores.
In the last draw, the cut-off was 457 so 65 percent of the candidates in the range 451-460 were included. Also, the rate of applications in the range 441-450 was 600 per week until 14 Feb. Thus, we can form this equation:
[2.63 * x * 6/7] + [2.63 * 600 * 15/7] = 3350 + [0.9 * 0.65 * x * 6/7] + [0.9 * 0.65 * 600 * 15/7]
Solving this equation yields x as 441. Thus, candidates with more than 450 in the previous draw we're 958.
Candidates with 450+ in the next draw on 6 March = 3350 - 958 - (2.63 * 2 * 411) = 3120
As the lot size on 6 March should be 3350, there is a scope or 230 more candidates below 450.
Number of candidates at 450 = 5 weeks * [(600 * 15/35) +(441 * 20/35)] / 10 = 252
Thus, we can conclude that if 3350 candidates are picked in the draw on 06 March, with the rate of applications staying the same as the rate from 14 Feb to 20 Feb, the CRS cut-off would be 450 with tie-breaker as end of February.
PS: This analysis is based on numbers alone, no emotions or any other kind of subjective bias.
Well described in detail. Finally , it is all about mathematics and I wish and hope the above analysis is true.
Highly unlikely!! IQAS is damn slow lol.
Even I submitted my certificates around the same time I received my ITA. Right now, it feels like I will probably receive my PPR before my IQAS ECA arrives
I submitted it in this February only. So there is a lot of time left for my profile to get expired. My time was only wasted by WES verification. That's all!
Yes! If my current score wouldn't be helping me in a couple of draws to receive an ITA, then I will have to improve my scores.
You should submit your medical along with other required documents after getting ita.
Can you create a profile and receive ITA wothout the WES reports in hand??Highly unlikely!! IQAS is damn slow lol.
Even I submitted my certificates around the same time I received my ITA. Right now, it feels like I will probably receive my PPR before my IQAS ECA arrives