Ray of hope 108th

[abhishek_89]

Theory by myself

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of December 14, 2018
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 132
451-600 282
401-450 31,898
441-450 1,544
431-440 9,499
421-430 6,435
411-420 6,922
401-410 7,498
351-400 38,166
391-400 6,997
381-390 7,993
371-380 7,961
361-370 7,738
351-360 7,477
301-350 21,946
0-300 3,300
Total 95,724


I have read that in 2019, IRCC were planning to uncrease the number of ITA around the year ( though they mentionned that it will be increasing over the year) it will jump from 3900 to 4150/4400 by the end of 2019

Given the number of candidates in the 14th pool, people above 450 were 414.
I wonder if the draw is based on the numbers of invitations or point based
If on number of people required i believe that the cut off will be cut
If the draw is based on a point system, i believe that the number will be cut, considering the gap between 19 December till today

As CIC has PR targets, they have a plan on the number of invites to be issued each year. They just spread the invites across the year so they can keep getting those folks with higher scores as new applicants with higher scores keep entering the pool throughout the year.

So, if they decide to do a draw today and if they decide to invite 3900 applicants, they just pick the top 3900 applicants in the pool at the time of the draw. Thus, the score of the applicant ranked 3900 becomes the CRS cut off for that particular draw.

 

[abhishek_89]

And this hasn’t been updated for the current year yet ??

Not updated yet in their official site.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/documents/proof-funds.html

 

[Puka]

As CIC has PR targets, they have a plan on the number of invites to be issued each year. They just spread the invites across the year so they can keep getting those folks with higher scores as new applicants with higher scores keep entering the pool throughout the year.

So, if they decide to do a draw today and if they decide to invite 3900 applicants, they just pick the top 3900 applicants in the pool at the time of the draw. Thus, the score of the applicant ranked 3900 becomes the CRS cut off for that particular draw.

So if you look closely at the numbers, cut off number , cut off above 441 is 1958 candidates
Remaining number is 3900-1958=1942
So i believe these 1942 would be below 441 considering that no new applicants have entered with 441 and above points
Thats why i believe that the cut off wouldnt be as high as 445
I think it will be low since wes has made it harder for folks around the globe

 

[saltedwound]

Maybe there won't be a draw today. It is 1 PM EST already.

May be just like the draw on 19th Dec, CIC has gotten into a tradition of giving surprises.

Anyways, all I can do is pray and hope I get selected with my current CRS score..

 

[Raz0r]

So if you look closely at the numbers, cut off number , cut off above 441 is 1958 candidates
Remaining number is 3900-1958=1942
So i believe these 1942 would be below 441 considering that no new applicants have entered with 441 and above points
Thats why i believe that the cut off wouldnt be as high as 445
I think it will be low since wes has made it harder for folks around the globe

I think its going to be more than 441 unfortunately, but yeah, can never be sure. All the best to all.

 

[abhishek_89]

So if you look closely at the numbers, cut off number , cut off above 441 is 1958 candidates
Remaining number is 3900-1958=1942
So i believe these 1942 would be below 441 considering that no new applicants have entered with 441 and above points
Thats why i believe that the cut off wouldnt be as high as 445
I think it will be low since wes has made it harder for folks around the globe

I guess you are new here.

The pool data is as of Dec 14th. We had a draw on Dec 19th with cut off 439, which means after the draw happened on Dec 19th, there were 0 applicants remaining in the pool with 440 or above score.

Your assumption of no new applicants entering the pool would have been true only if the whole world was having a network outage or the CIC site was down.

Sadly, that's not the case and the average intake (including new applicants, increased CRS applicants, ITA declined applicants) to the pool every day of applicants above CRS 440 is around 250-300. This fills up the pool pretty quickly and hence when the next draw happens the cut off is still around the same mark as it was earlier.

 

[Puka]

I guess you are new here.

The pool data is as of Dec 14th. We had a draw on Dec 19th with cut off 439, which means after the draw happened on Dec 19th, there were 0 applicants remaining in the pool with 440 or above score.

Your assumption of no new applicants entering the pool would have been true only if the whole world was having a network outage or the CIC site was down.

Sadly, that's not the case and the average intake (including new applicants, increased CRS applicants, ITA declined applicants) to the pool every day of applicants above CRS 440 is around 250-300. This fills up the pool pretty quickly and hence when the next draw happens the cut off is still around the same mark as it was earlier.

Damn bro, you killed my dream lol
Do you have a website that shows live pool numbers?

 

[abhishek_89]

Damn bro, you killed my dream lol
Do you have a website that shows live pool numbers?

There is no website for live pool data. They update a recent pool distribution table only when they announce the draw results and only a few times have they updated the pool data without a draw.

 

[Puka]

There is no website for live pool data. They update a recent pool distribution table only when they announce the draw results and only a few times have they updated the pool data without a draw.

Guessed so
If there were a pool, we could forecast the coming cut off points, with a stable goven of 3900 ITA

 

[alongroad]

Its around 2 pm in CA. Any chance draw would happen today?

 

[nns14]

@abhishek_89
Dare I ask what the cut off will be if it happens on next Monday or Wednesday?

We will see 460+ for the first time in ages

 

[symoali123]

so it means no draw for today

waiting at 450

 

[Chinku04]

Hi Everyone,

If a candidate is having more than 460 CRS score and the draw comes around 450 CRS. Will the candidate get and invitation to apply for sure.? or if there are any cases where the candidates do not receive ITA even though they had more then the required CRS points.

Can people please share experiences and opinions on any situations heard off.?

Regards

 

[Krystine]

Hi Everyone,

If a candidate is having more than 460 CRS score and the draw comes around 450 CRS. Will the candidate get and invitation to apply for sure.? or if there are any cases where the candidates do not receive ITA even though they had more then the required CRS points.

Can people please share experiences and opinions on any situations heard off.?

Regards

Yes, if you have a CRS more than the cut-off, you will receive the ITA for 100%.

 

[Chinku04]

Yes, if you have a CRS more than the cut-off, you will receive the ITA for 100%.

Thanks Krystine

But has there been any cases where a person doesnt get ITA despite having high score. or heard of any situation like this?