Ray of Hope - 97th Draw

[at4446]

If IRCC is to skip draw this Wednesday, it will be crystal clear that they do not want CRS to fall below 440 this year...which will be heartbreaking for many people including me

pretty sure f they do the draw it will clear all the 440s and there might be a chance for 439! if no draw, people below 440 should not waste their time anymore!

 

[world101]

If there is one thing every one must remember, it is this. CIC is NOT deliberately trying to deprive low CRS people of ITAs.

Remember that CRS fills a vacuum. Without CRS, there is no way to prioritize. It would be impossible to agree on who gets in and who waits. CRS is NOT meant to judge people's skills. It exists because there is no alternative to it.

CIC is treating 440 and above only as good score

No they are not. The sheer number of people above 440 obviates the possibility of those below 440 to get in. It's just the game, and some people are ahead in their game than others.

But more importantly, CIC DO NOT CARE, and hear me out on this loud and clear. CIC do not care that people above 440 are displacing those below 440 this year. CIC would NOT care if people above 450 were doing the same to those below 450. And CIC would NOT care if people above 420 were doing the same to those below 420. CIC is NOT "looking" at the CRS to decide who is "good enough" to be invited. CIC is "using" CRS to "automate" without ambiguity, and with accountability, who to invite.

There is no way people above 440 can be foreseen to excel in their careers more than those below 440. There is no way a 490er stands taller in highly skilled work than a 420er. And guess what, CIC know this. They know this more firmly than those unfortunate souls who are cursing their careers (and other factors) for not giving them chunky CRS for a smoother ITA sail.

This should be evident by the fact that past ITA, high CRSers are not given any priority. Those who are above 500 don't get their meds waived off. If you have a driving offense to explain, you aren't getting an easy ride even if you have an exceptional score of 1201 CRS.

looking at the trend this year it seems like there is a 3 week gap draw with a draw size increase in the beginning of each quarter

1. When #ITA amped from 2750 to 3000 (Feb 7) -- this wasn't a 3 week draw. This wasn't the beginning of a new quarter either.

2. When #ITA went from 3000 to 3500 (April 11), it wasn't a 3 week draw either.

3. When the 3 week draw happened in March, there wasn't an increase in number of ITAs.

The above statement is generalizing from just ONE instance -- the one in June when #ITA increase coincided with a "partially" 3 week draw. It wasn't technically a pure 3 week draw.

But the statement is affirming this with such a conviction that feeble hearted people would take it as an official stand.

Now, I get that desperate minds and hearts make irrational conclusions and distort their reality to give credence to their theories. I have been a victim of my own many times. But it is important to not say things with such a certitude that can potentially affect people's decisions.

If there's one thing all the 96 draws so far tell us, it is that there is NO pattern. It is tweaked as a response to situations. These situations are numeral (# people in the pool, tie breakers, targets, etc), political (government changes), or economical (skill shortages, strategic skill pools), or others.

I am ranting all this so as to assure that no one is looking down on you because of low CRS. But, and in equal measure, NO ONE cares if low CRS people are finding it harder this year. No one is against you, and no one is with you in this game. CIC would welcome you if you play well. And you play well by raising your CRS, period.

 

[navinball]

CRS is kind of 'dumb'. there is no way it can tell if a person is smart or dumb or can make it in canada. it assumes a 25 yr old graduate from satyabhama university working in infosys is the same as a 40 yr old with a phd from MIT working in an Artificial intelligence field. its easy to tweak the CRS tool to make it award more points to the latter but i dont know why they dont want to do it.

 

[Nothing_but_the_truth]

Now, I get that desperate minds and hearts make irrational conclusions and distort their reality to give credence to their theories. I have been a victim of my own many times. But it is important to not say things with such a certitude that can potentially affect people's decisions.

Now, I completely agree with all that you've said here and you did a brilliant job in disproving all the "irrational conclusions" and I couldn't possibly agree more with the CRS theory of whether or not it actually is a tool in indicating skills of an applicant. the CRS is absolute bull crap in that aspect.
However, this thread is labeled ray of hope for a reason and it is the tiny speck of light at the end of the tunnel or whatever phrase you may want to use that the members here are trying to spread amongst each other even if they knew deep down about all the stuff you ranted about above and I don't think any above average intelligence person here is making conclusive decisions based on the theories stated here. At times that's all people need, now while your post is brilliant in my personal opinion, I don't think you should go about demoralizing people, it is a ROH thread after all.

I am not trying to be argumentative here and if you want to come back at me feel free to do so but it wasn't my intention to argue, just wanted to share my two cents.

 

[SithLord]

My Prediction:

Draw #97
Date: 22 Aug 2018
ITA Issued: 3 750
Lowest Score: 439

This might be one of the last draws to have 3 750... I feel they will go down to 3 500 shortly or even "skip a draw".

I'm 100% confident this will clear all above 440 in this draw 22 August 2018. Good luck All!!!

My lowest predicted CRS score for the year 2018 still remains at 434 which we could see at year end...but might not happen!

I will drop 5 points in October

 

[SithLord]

Still nothing from Ontario

 

[hellotipsy]

There will be an increase to 4000 in the next few draws! Hang in there!

 

[hellotipsy]

However, this thread is labeled ray of hope for a reason and it is the tiny speck of light at the end of the tunnel or whatever phrase you may want to use that the members here are trying to spread amongst each other even if they knew deep down about all the stuff you ranted about above and I don't think any above average intelligence person here is making conclusive decisions based on the theories stated here. At times that's all people need, now while your post is brilliant in my personal opinion, I don't think you should go about demoralizing people, it is a ROH thread after all.

Some people tend to forget about this but I agree. I saw some disparaging posts in previous ROH threads looking down on people in sub440 for not doing anything to increase their score and the tone is condescending. Not helpful at all considering the title of the thread

 

[Gibacho]

@abhishek89 whats ur prediction for tomorrow?
He has been pretty accurate all these while.
I am still at 437 - my wife's EOR turned out to be negative - and with a lot of $$ lost in the same, I am on the gloomy side of myself

 

[wvey]

How likely is it that there wont be any draw tomorrow?

 

[LizaK]

I am a 22 year old. As of now my CRS score is 458. Desperately waiting for a draw tomorrow. However, concerned by the predictions that it may not take place for a week.
Hope 458 is good enough..

 

[mark12345680]

I am a 22 year old. As of now my CRS score is 458. Desperately waiting for a draw tomorrow. However, concerned by the predictions that it may not take place for a week.
Hope 458 is good enough..

Are you for real? This thread isn't for you

 

[thefallenstar]

I am a 22 year old. As of now my CRS score is 458. Desperately waiting for a draw tomorrow. However, concerned by the predictions that it may not take place for a week.
Hope 458 is good enough..

458 is good. Get ready with your bag.

 

[Swordwater]

If there is one thing every one must remember, it is this. CIC is NOT deliberately trying to deprive low CRS people of ITAs.

Remember that CRS fills a vacuum. Without CRS, there is no way to prioritize. It would be impossible to agree on who gets in and who waits. CRS is NOT meant to judge people's skills. It exists because there is no alternative to it.



No they are not. The sheer number of people above 440 obviates the possibility of those below 440 to get in. It's just the game, and some people are ahead in their game than others.

But more importantly, CIC DO NOT CARE, and hear me out on this loud and clear. CIC do not care that people above 440 are displacing those below 440 this year. CIC would NOT care if people above 450 were doing the same to those below 450. And CIC would NOT care if people above 420 were doing the same to those below 420. CIC is NOT "looking" at the CRS to decide who is "good enough" to be invited. CIC is "using" CRS to "automate" without ambiguity, and with accountability, who to invite.

There is no way people above 440 can be foreseen to excel in their careers more than those below 440. There is no way a 490er stands taller in highly skilled work than a 420er. And guess what, CIC know this. They know this more firmly than those unfortunate souls who are cursing their careers (and other factors) for not giving them chunky CRS for a smoother ITA sail.

This should be evident by the fact that past ITA, high CRSers are not given any priority. Those who are above 500 don't get their meds waived off. If you have a driving offense to explain, you aren't getting an easy ride even if you have an exceptional score of 1201 CRS.



1. When #ITA amped from 2750 to 3000 (Feb 7) -- this wasn't a 3 week draw. This wasn't the beginning of a new quarter either.

2. When #ITA went from 3000 to 3500 (April 11), it wasn't a 3 week draw either.

3. When the 3 week draw happened in March, there wasn't an increase in number of ITAs.

The above statement is generalizing from just ONE instance -- the one in June when #ITA increase coincided with a "partially" 3 week draw. It wasn't technically a pure 3 week draw.

But the statement is affirming this with such a conviction that feeble hearted people would take it as an official stand.

Now, I get that desperate minds and hearts make irrational conclusions and distort their reality to give credence to their theories. I have been a victim of my own many times. But it is important to not say things with such a certitude that can potentially affect people's decisions.

If there's one thing all the 96 draws so far tell us, it is that there is NO pattern. It is tweaked as a response to situations. These situations are numeral (# people in the pool, tie breakers, targets, etc), political (government changes), or economical (skill shortages, strategic skill pools), or others.

I am ranting all this so as to assure that no one is looking down on you because of low CRS. But, and in equal measure, NO ONE cares if low CRS people are finding it harder this year. No one is against you, and no one is with you in this game. CIC would welcome you if you play well. And you play well by raising your CRS, period.

Good one but it is IRCC and not CIC anymore.

 

[samikdg]

I am a 22 year old. As of now my CRS score is 458. Desperately waiting for a draw tomorrow. However, concerned by the predictions that it may not take place for a week.
Hope 458 is good enough..

Apart from the CRS point which other have already mentioned, IMO 22 is not an age to be desperate for immigration unless there's a war/social unrest in your country. That is for people like us closer to 40 and understanding the life passing us by :/