My thoughts are that because of the 16 days we could see a slight uptick in the cutoff score, maybe to 443, or the same score of 442. 2 extra days at 200 or so profiles is 400 more that need to be accommodated.
Not to block out the ray of hope, but my observations are as follows. I think IRCC are trying to maintain a cutoff as close to 440 as possible. Every time we get close to breaking it, something happens to reset the draw scores to go up again. Nothing in this year mirrors last year, so we're now in new ground.
I also believe in this 440 theory because Ontario has not drawn less than 433 for their PNP HCP stream yet, which shows me that they don't believe the scores will drop soon anyway. It takes 90 days to get that PNP processed, so why offer candidates like me at 438 a PNP when the federal draws would offer all of us ITAs and there would be a waste of resources processing unnecessary applications where they would not be able to influence where we live. Ontario is one of the clearest signs that the scores are not going to suddenly drop and rescue everyone.
(Source:
http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPNEW.html)
I was just lucky that I am one o the few who got a PNP in time (1 day after the last draw - sigh) so I'll make the 11 July draw...2 days before my birthday and my CRS drops to 433, potentially relegating me to ITA limbo for a long time (long enough where my EE profile would expire and together with my lawyers fees and chunks of my documentation). I don't know what to say to those in this thread, but I think anything people can do to increase their scores above 440 is the way to go.