Ray of Hope - 93rd Draw

[Fhussain]

Considering current trend what could be the cutoff in the next draw after 2 weeks with 3750..

 

[KyleXY]

This should happen every year but trend does not show so...

Yes, but during previous years, IRCC hadn't updated the EE rules of awarding 15 or 30 points for Canadian Education credential yet.

 

[special3220]

There was a draw in between ielts result being release not too long ago and it made little or no impact in that round of draw. So am not holding my breathe

On that draw score drooped by full 1 point. From 441 to 440. Also considering around 350-450 people were already in the score 441 and the fact they got cleared along with all the new entries and some from 440 as well, I would say in that two weeks around 3100 people entered in the pool above 441. That is 220 profile above 441 per day and if you consider the latest trend of 265+ above 441 in last two weeks I would say no IELTS definetly affected.

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

The calm after the storm

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

On that draw score drooped by full 1 point. From 441 to 440. Also considering around 350-450 people were already in the score 441 and the fact they got cleared along with all the new entries and some from 440 as well, I would say in that two weeks around 3100 people entered in the pool above 441. That is 220 profile above 441 per day and if you consider the latest trend of 265+ above 441 in last two weeks I would say no IELTS definetly affected.

Like i said LITTLE or NO effect

 

[ankurrana]

Yes, but during previous years, IRCC hadn't updated the EE rules of awarding 15 or 30 points for Canadian Education credential yet.

fair enough

 

[special3220]

Like i said LITTLE or NO effect

LOL 500 less people entered in the two weeks because of no IELTS and you call that little or no effect? What were you expecting? 5 points drop?

 

[NOMAD2017]

@special3220 Just leave 440 out of this theory. Think.. IRCC is trying to maintain the score at a certain level.. They are just making sure that Whatever happened last year, never happens again. As I told you before, I agree with you that 440 may not be the exact borderline for IRCC, but they are making conscious efforts so the cut-off doesn't plunge like it did last year. We might observe two more 3-week gaps between the draws in the second half of the year. Whenever the score starts dipping, they will play this card.

 

[at4446]

I agree to this analysis and it is really scary to see 260+ profile/day entering at 441+ range. It was around 190-220/day for last few months except for a brief period before the 9th May draw. If we extrapolate that rate till today, there would have been about 263*21~5500 profiles at 441+ before the draw. Means still 1750 such profiles are remianing in pool.
If IRCC continues with 3750 bi-weekly draws, it will take 25 draws for cut-off to come down to 440 again. In case they decide with 4000 bi-weekly draws, still it will take 5-6 draws.

In summary, extremely negative draw for all like me under 440. Not sure which way this trend is going.

what 25 draws to come back to 440? what are you even saying?

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

LOL 500 less people entered in the two weeks because of no IELTS and you call that little or no effect? What were you expecting? 5 points drop?

would that had been 2 much 2 ask for?

 

[NOMAD2017]

sor

If draw had happened on 6th June, cut off wud still have been around 440-442 as per the pool data available for 8th june. So IRCC wants to maintain above 440 theory and thats the reason draw didnt happen on 6th june is not correct

sorry I meant to say on 8th June there were 2900+ above 451...and 1100 above 441..So around 4000 in all were above 440 on 8th June...Deduct 520 (take 260 entrants per day on avaerage) from it and we get 3480 candidates above 440 on June 6th. With a draw size of 3500, the cut-off would have been 440. But their target was 3750 so they delayed the draw for a week to drive the cut-off up again. Lol @special3220 would want to kick me out of this forum after reading this the Notorious 440 theory seems to be true once again

 

[special3220]

@special3220 Just leave 440 out of this theory. Think.. IRCC is trying to maintain the score at a certain level.. They are just making sure that Whatever happened last year, never happens again. As I told you before, I agree with you that 440 may not be the exact borderline for IRCC, but they are making conscious efforts so the cut-off doesn't plunge like it did last year. We might observe two more 3-week gaps between the draws in the second half of the year. Whenever the score starts dipping, they will play this card.

You keep missing the point over and over again. I think you are not giving this a single moment of thinking instead you just keep saying the same thing again and again. Listen, there is no conspiracy and no conscious effort from the part of CIC this year. This year the scenario is completely different compared to last and the two main reasons behind this is the no of people entering above 440 and the systematic way in which CIC is doing the draws. Now, the large no of entry means score not going down much at all. Every week there is 2800-3300 people entering the pool above 441. Earlier in the year it was less and now it has increased a lot. If 2800 people enter above 441 every two week then how a draw of 2750 going to reduce score? the slight decrease every week that we saw recently was due to the no of ITAs per draw which was 3500.

Now lets tlak about CIC, they are not doing any sporadic, instead they have become very predictable. two months 2750 for 4 draws, then 3000 for next 4, and now 3750 most probably for the next three draws. They dont have to do any back to back, they dont need that because they are getting high scoring profile every two weeks anyway. There is no reason for them to set up something like, "we are not going to go down below this score or that score", because there is no need for that and also it doesnt make any sense at all.

The score is not going to plunge like last year because of the above two reasons. Now you want to improve your score, go ahead do that, all the best to you, but you keep coming with this weird negative takings which doesn't add up. Not everyone here has the opportunity to increase their score, you have the opportunity then use that.

I am tired of coming with data in order to make you understand but you keep sticking to your baseless theory. I am not gonna try anymore. You believe what you want to believe.

 

[NOMAD2017]

d

Doesnt make sense at all!!!!!!

doesnt make sense that's why someone with 451 and profile created in December 2017 received ITA today.

 

[NOMAD2017]

You keep missing the point over and over again. I think you are not giving this a single moment of thinking instead you just keep saying the same thing again and again. Listen, there is no conspiracy and no conscious effort from the part of CIC this year. This year the scenario is completely different compared to last and the two main reasons behind this is the no of people entering above 440 and the systematic way in which CIC is doing the draws. Now, the large no of entry means score not going down much at all. Every week there is 2800-3300 people entering the pool above 441. Earlier in the year it was less and now it has increased a lot. If 2800 people enter above 441 every two week then how a draw of 2750 going to reduce score? the slight decrease every week that we saw recently was due to the no of ITAs per draw which was 3500.

Now lets tlak about CIC, they are not doing any sporadic, instead they have become very predictable. two months 2750 for 4 draws, then 3000 for next 4, and now 3750 most probably for the next three draws. They dont have to do any back to back, they dont need that because they are getting high scoring profile every two weeks anyway. There is no reason for them to set up something like, "we are not going to go down below this score or that score", because there is no need for that and also it doesnt make any sense at all.

The score is not going to plunge like last year because of the above two reasons. Now you want to improve your score, go ahead do that, all the best to you, but you keep coming with this weird negative takings which doesn't add up. Not everyone here has the opportunity to increase their score, you have the opportunity then use that.

doesn't add up to you, as you just don't want to believe in this theory.. But makes all sense to me

 

[NOMAD2017]

h

You keep missing the point over and over again. I think you are not giving this a single moment of thinking instead you just keep saying the same thing again and again. Listen, there is no conspiracy and no conscious effort from the part of CIC this year. This year the scenario is completely different compared to last and the two main reasons behind this is the no of people entering above 440 and the systematic way in which CIC is doing the draws. Now, the large no of entry means score not going down much at all. Every week there is 2800-3300 people entering the pool above 441. Earlier in the year it was less and now it has increased a lot. If 2800 people enter above 441 every two week then how a draw of 2750 going to reduce score? the slight decrease every week that we saw recently was due to the no of ITAs per draw which was 3500.

Now lets tlak about CIC, they are not doing any sporadic, instead they have become very predictable. two months 2750 for 4 draws, then 3000 for next 4, and now 3750 most probably for the next three draws. They dont have to do any back to back, they dont need that because they are getting high scoring profile every two weeks anyway. There is no reason for them to set up something like, "we are not going to go down below this score or that score", because there is no need for that and also it doesnt make any sense at all.

The score is not going to plunge like last year because of the above two reasons. Now you want to improve your score, go ahead do that, all the best to you, but you keep coming with this weird negative takings which doesn't add up. Not everyone here has the opportunity to increase their score, you have the opportunity then use that.

I am tired of coming with data in order to make you understand but you keep sticking to your baseless theory. I am not gonna try anymore. You believe what you want to believe.

We can play with the data all day long...Here is my interpretation of the data..
on 8th June there were 2900+ above 451...and 1100 above 441..So around 4000 in all were above 440 on 8th June...Deduct 520 (take 260 entrants per day on avaerage) from it and we get 3480 candidates above 440 on June 6th. With a draw size of 3500, the cut-off would have been 440. But their target was 3750 so they delayed the draw for a week to drive the cut-off up again. Lol @special3220 would want to kick me out of this forum after reading this the Notorious 440 theory seems to be true once again

Cut-off is not gonna come down to 430s in near future, mark my words