Ray of Hope - 92nd Draw
- Thread starter AlliBatista
- Start date
With IRCC NO ONE truely knows but it sure would be a good thing IF it happens like you are predicting
It depends until when you are claiming the points for the work experience. At the time of the issue of the letter, if the duration of the work experience is more than required, then up to 6 months old letter would do. However, if you want to claim points for the recent experiences too, then get a recent letter.
Mention your spouse's name as per the passport throughout the application. Just because you got her name updated in your passport does not mean that you need to change her name everywhere in your application. If her passport bears the old name, the PPR will be issued on that name only.
Thanks friend. I managed to change the name in the EE profile with the married name. So taking an affidavit is fine to confirm its the same name in other docs?
Here is my story.
I made it to almost a CLB 10 and maxed out my IELTS to be at a CRS of 438. I am fairly new in the pool. About a week old but I have been on this process for quite some time now. NOC is 4021. I have been reading a couple of analysis of the CRS and following the trend. My greatest fear is that the CRS may not even come down to 438 this year and even if it does, it may have a tiebreaking in December 2017.
This is considering the number of 440+ people entering the pool on an everyday basis.
I'd love to hear people's opinion on this and glad to be proved wrong.
I made it to almost a CLB 10 and maxed out my IELTS to be at a CRS of 438. I am fairly new in the pool. About a week old but I have been on this process for quite some time now. NOC is 4021. I have been reading a couple of analysis of the CRS and following the trend. My greatest fear is that the CRS may not even come down to 438 this year and even if it does, it may have a tiebreaking in December 2017.
This is considering the number of 440+ people entering the pool on an everyday basis.
I'd love to hear people's opinion on this and glad to be proved wrong.
Buddy as you know it's tricky and there are a lot of ppl below your score even.
I think 438 has a very decent chance. My estimate is 80% which is great. So just relax and wait for the ITA.
I see there rather huge overheating.
1. Explanation of terms:
Application - what you submit after you get ITA. One application can have more than one applicant.
Applicant - person who has applied for PR (including babies).
Immigrant - person who has landed that year (need to check in a different report)
Nr of unique ITA - is calculated when checking amount of different EE profiles that were invited. (if you got first ITA and then you declined it and got next one 2 weeks later that is considered just 1 unique ITA)
Amount of issued visas - amount of those nice stamps sticked into a passport ( people that have visa free access and those that still have a different type of temporary visa do not need it.
2. Confirmed theories:
a - Steady PNP release (this could be seen each draw. PNP is also increasing toward 500 ITA per draw.
b. - Notoriety of EE - In 2017 more new EE were created than 2 years combined together.
c. - Lower amount of rejected / cancelled application - from 109k applications 96k was approved and 99k finalized(I know there is the overlap effect, as 2017 has part of applications with 2016 ITA, I am just simplyfing a bit, since it seems that the system has reached certain stability.). That means rather lower rejection rate than estimated (only 10%). Also there is not the decline rate included. But is seems that the decline rate is much lower as well.
3. Now the bad news.
If you check application send against visa issued, it does not seem so bad? Right? Wrong. Because you only need visa (and again stamping your passport with visa has nothing to do with your obligation to send your passport) if you are not already in Canada on some other valid visa or if you are not visa exempt country.
And yes like around 60% of principal applicants do reside in Canada. Yes not all dependant are there as well. But even if you take let say 40% of approved applicants that do no need visa, the result is not good. 92k x 1.4 = 129k
That is 40k more than what they need per year. So that means that hey do not need any back to back draws or any further increase of ITA.
1. Explanation of terms:
Application - what you submit after you get ITA. One application can have more than one applicant.
Applicant - person who has applied for PR (including babies).
Immigrant - person who has landed that year (need to check in a different report)
Nr of unique ITA - is calculated when checking amount of different EE profiles that were invited. (if you got first ITA and then you declined it and got next one 2 weeks later that is considered just 1 unique ITA)
Amount of issued visas - amount of those nice stamps sticked into a passport ( people that have visa free access and those that still have a different type of temporary visa do not need it.
2. Confirmed theories:
a - Steady PNP release (this could be seen each draw. PNP is also increasing toward 500 ITA per draw.
b. - Notoriety of EE - In 2017 more new EE were created than 2 years combined together.
c. - Lower amount of rejected / cancelled application - from 109k applications 96k was approved and 99k finalized(I know there is the overlap effect, as 2017 has part of applications with 2016 ITA, I am just simplyfing a bit, since it seems that the system has reached certain stability.). That means rather lower rejection rate than estimated (only 10%). Also there is not the decline rate included. But is seems that the decline rate is much lower as well.
3. Now the bad news.
If you check application send against visa issued, it does not seem so bad? Right? Wrong. Because you only need visa (and again stamping your passport with visa has nothing to do with your obligation to send your passport) if you are not already in Canada on some other valid visa or if you are not visa exempt country.
And yes like around 60% of principal applicants do reside in Canada. Yes not all dependant are there as well. But even if you take let say 40% of approved applicants that do no need visa, the result is not good. 92k x 1.4 = 129k
That is 40k more than what they need per year. So that means that hey do not need any back to back draws or any further increase of ITA.
I hate to say it but I think your observation is accurate. Eventhough in 2017 they failed with their admission target for the year with only 52k admission compared to their target of 69-73k, they did approve more than enough PR than they had too. 92k PR application were received most of which were approved and there were another 28k application which was still processing as of January 03, 2018.
This is a horrible stat for us, this means they don't really have to issue many more ITAs for the remaining months of 2018. They will eventually fill up their target even if they issue just around 20k ITAs in the last 7 months of 2018. However, I think they will issue more than that, but the theory we had previously regarding the need of more frequent draws seems way off the mark at this moment of time.
I hope I am wrong and someone shed some new lights on the report.
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HCP might open and that will be your only chance for OINP or try PNP of other provinces or job offers etc. ITA slim chances or even zero chance for anything less than 435