Draw 90 on May 23rd for 3500 :
Worst Case Scenario:
2100 (100 to 150 per day over 440 without IELTS result (normally 150 to 250, average 200))
500 (100 to 500 PNP nominations)
500 (remaining people on score 441)
400 (500 to 1000 people on score 440)
Cut off 440 with tie breaker.
Best Case Scenario:
1400 (100 to 150 per day over 440 without IELTS result (normally 150 to 250, average 200))
100 (100 to 500 PNP nominations)
500 (remaining people on score 441)
500 (500 to 1000 people on score 440)
500 (500 to 1000 people on score 439)
500 (500 to 1000 people on score 438)
0 (500 to 1000 people on score 437)
Cut off 437 with tie breaker.