Ray Of Hope - 87th Draw

[abhishek_89]

Does this mean that CIC did not meet their target immigrants last year? As per the data, around 65k was immigrated into Canada last year against the target of 73k. So ca

This could be the landed immigrants data and the PR targets they try to achieve each year might be the number of PR approvals in that particular year. As I said previously, CIC has no control of what the PR visa holder does. So an approved PR applicant, after visa stamping, can choose to not land and CIC will get to know this maybe 6 months down the line when that visa expires.

I got my visa approved in Aug 2017 and I could land and complete my PR formalities till May 2018 (almost 10 months after visa approval). So I would be part of the 2017 PR target but not in the landed list of 2017.

 

[abhishek_89]

My point is when there is a set process then there is no need to target a specific set of people and lure them. It's not as if there is a dearth of people applying.

The article is written in the website of an immigration company and not by the Govt of Canada and of course immigration companies would try to lure more people into Canada because that's how they earn more. BTW it was written by the same immigration company that owns this forum!

The fact is the criteria to obtain a Canadian PR is same for somebody who works in the US or India or China or Antarctica. Nobody has an advantage over the other.

 

[Midnight Blessing]

The article is written in the website of an immigration company and not by the Govt of Canada and of course immigration companies would try to lure more people into Canada because that's how they earn more. BTW it was written by the same immigration company that owns this forum!

The fact is the criteria to obtain a Canadian PR is same for somebody who works in the US or India or China or Antarctica. Nobody has an advantage over the other.

I completely agree with you. Its just the news that has highlighted the TRUMP issue over the H1B trauma to make it their hot news which is actively or passively influencing the number of applicants applying from US. But it is very true that there are huge wave of applicants looking to settle in Canada from US, specially this year. & I have seen a lot of people getting their PR processed within 21 days from US & OINP within 2 months, whereas an applicant from the subcontinent zone is taking around 3-4 month to get their PR mostly through direct ITA in 2018.

 

[Varunaimar]

Exactly marketing BS. If the Dec 20 cut off was 446, it basically means pool was cleaned up of applicants with above 446. So 3 weeks down the line, 2750 applicants have to enter newly or improve their scores to above 446 for the cut off to go above 446. So if the next cut off is 446 on Jan 10, there is no point highlighting it as the lowest ever cut off in the 1st draw of any year!

I might be poorly informed but how many IELTS results came out before the Jan 10th draw which occurred after a 3 week gap?

 

[abhishek_89]

I completely agree with you. Its just the news that has highlighted the TRUMP issue over the H1B trauma to make it their hot news which is actively or passively influencing the number of applicants applying from US. But it is very true that there are huge wave of applicants looking to settle in Canada from US, specially this year. & I have seen a lot of people getting their PR processed within 21 days from US & OINP within 2 months, whereas an applicant from the subcontinent zone is taking around 3-4 month to get their PR mostly through direct ITA in 2018.

About the processing time, it could be true, as most applications which are straight-forward get delayed due to the security checks and that should be fine as long as the criteria for applying for PR is same for all the applicants.

 

[abhishek_89]

I might be poorly informed but how many IELTS results came out before the Jan 10th draw which occurred after a 3 week gap?

Only 1 IELTS result on Dec 29th.

The problem with trying to tag back IELTS results to the higher pool composition is that we don't know if folks who got the previous IELTS result on Dec 15th updated their EE profile on time for the Dec 20th draw. If not, they also would be considered for the Jan 10th draw. Also, during that timeframe, WES could have processed lesser applications as there were holidays.

Hence, there are a lot of factors which makes it impossible to find the exact reason for a negative or positive spike in the number of applicants entering or improving their scores.

 

[Varunaimar]

Only 1 IELTS result on Dec 29th.

The problem with trying to tag back IELTS results to the higher pool composition is that we don't know if folks who got the previous IELTS result on Dec 15th updated their EE profile on time for the Dec 20th draw. If not, they also would be considered for the Jan 10th draw. Also, during that timeframe, WES could have processed lesser applications as there were holidays.

Hence, there are a lot of factors which makes it impossible to find the exact reason for a negative or positive spike in the number of applicants entering or improving their scores.

Thanks, this makes sense. Shall we agree that the two biggest factors that contribute to applicants entering the pool or improving their scores stem from ECA and IELTS results? There are other factors such as TEF scores, IELTS remarking and CEC class applicants but such applicants aren't significant against those waiting for IELTS and ECA results.

Let's look at the similarities:

1. For Jan 10th draw, IELTS results came on 15th December and 29th December. However only a few people (apparently) could update their IELTS scores before 20th December (almost all IDP candidates and a few BC candidates). Majority of them updated their profiles after 20th Dec and apparently WES also slowed down due to holidays.
   1. For the upcoming draw, if we apply the same metrics, many people will be getting their TRF numbers in the coming week and there has also been only a single IELTS result in this period, so they may or may not make it to the upcoming draw. Note that there was Easter holidays as well, during which WES was closed for a while. The only factor we do not know is how well people have done in IELTS, but if the rate at which people hitting CLB 9 remains the same as last year or has marginally increased, we should see a DROP in the CRS next week, because Jan 10th 2018 draw was a 3 week wait but this wait is 13 days old today.
2. As per pool statistics released along with March 26 draw, the number of candidates entering the pool above 440+ has fallen back to 2017 levels of 180/day. This is similar to the 186/day statistics as on Jan 10th. Of course, these are just speculative numbers, but it gives me hopes that CRS will not rise if a draw happens tomorrow or on the coming Wednesday.

 

[hope2018]

The article is written in the website of an immigration company and not by the Govt of Canada and of course immigration companies would try to lure more people into Canada because that's how they earn more. BTW it was written by the same immigration company that owns this forum!

The fact is the criteria to obtain a Canadian PR is same for somebody who works in the US or India or China or Antarctica. Nobody has an advantage over the other.

I didn't notice that article is written by an immigration company. So I stand corrected on that part. But the point I was trying to make was in any process there is always scope of subjectivity and here that could be in the form of how visa officer considers applications from US. It could mean faster processing for them and less ADR requests. For others it could mean a slower process. This is inspite of criteria being the same for everyone which I am not questioning at all. It would be interesting to see at end of the year how it looks. And honestly speaking I would want to be proved wrong when I see those statistics as that would in interest of everyone.

 

[premchandar.au]

Thanks, this makes sense. Shall we agree that the two biggest factors that contribute to applicants entering the pool or improving their scores stem from ECA and IELTS results? There are other factors such as TEF scores, IELTS remarking and CEC class applicants but such applicants aren't significant against those waiting for IELTS and ECA results.

Let's look at the similarities:

1. For Jan 10th draw, IELTS results came on 15th December and 29th December. However only a few people (apparently) could update their IELTS scores before 20th December (almost all IDP candidates and a few BC candidates). Majority of them updated their profiles after 20th Dec and apparently WES also slowed down due to holidays.
   1. For the upcoming draw, if we apply the same metrics, many people will be getting their TRF numbers in the coming week and there has also been only a single IELTS result in this period, so they may or may not make it to the upcoming draw. Note that there was Easter holidays as well, during which WES was closed for a while. The only factor we do not know is how well people have done in IELTS, but if the rate at which people hitting CLB 9 remains the same as last year or has marginally increased, we should see a DROP in the CRS next week, because Jan 10th 2018 draw was a 3 week wait but this wait is 13 days old today.
2. As per pool statistics released along with March 26 draw, the number of candidates entering the pool above 440+ has fallen back to 2017 levels of 180/day. This is similar to the 186/day statistics as on Jan 10th. Of course, these are just speculative numbers, but it gives me hopes that CRS will not rise if a draw happens tomorrow or on the coming Wednesday.

Influx should taper regardless. It cannot go on and on after all

 

[Varunaimar]

Influx should taper regardless. It cannot go on and on after all

With more awareness today as compared to 2017, I'd expect the influx to increase.

 

[journey21]

Influx should taper regardless. It cannot go on and on after all

Yes but for now, at least in the near future, the taper would be of minimal effect

 

[shersingh]

Influx should taper regardless. It cannot go on and on after all

Oh there are tons of people who are giving IELTS and waiting for clb9... Plus ircc folks have not been helpful, whenever there is a hope they surprise us with a 3 weeker.

 

[shersingh]

Oh there are tons of people who are giving IELTS and waiting for clb9... Plus ircc folks have not been helpful, whenever there is a hope they surprise us with a 3 weeker.

To give an idea, the next IELTS date in my area is July 28(with 2 centers in the city).imagine why people are giving IELTS.

 

[vensak]

To give an idea, the next IELTS date in my area is July 28(with 2 centers in the city).imagine why people are giving IELTS.

For general IELTS of course. Academic should be just a bit easier. But then again some might have understood that they will need studies in Canada in order to get through.
I also guess that some people have book 2 or 3 sessions so that they will just cancel booking if they get cbl9 in a first try.

 

[abhishek_89]

I didn't notice that article is written by an immigration company. So I stand corrected on that part. But the point I was trying to make was in any process there is always scope of subjectivity and here that could be in the form of how visa officer considers applications from US. It could mean faster processing for them and less ADR requests. For others it could mean a slower process. This is inspite of criteria being the same for everyone which I am not questioning at all. It would be interesting to see at end of the year how it looks. And honestly speaking I would want to be proved wrong when I see those statistics as that would in interest of everyone.

You can check those stats on Immitracker..