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Ray of Hope - 83rd Draw

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,621
3,038
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
@abhishek_89 You have been predicting the cut off very well since long.. Though I guess now you should start predicting whether there would be a draw or not.. As this is more volatile than the cut off.
@Retruitious has done a good amount of research on this. Please read his post:
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-83rd-draw.540148/page-48#post-6685819

The conclusion which he came to was 'The only thing predictable about the draws is how unpredictable CIC is.' and this is absolutely true. Apart from the fact that they do draws on Wednesdays with a gap of 2 weeks (high probability), there is no way to know when they tweak that schedule.
 

iamxty

Champion Member
Mar 13, 2017
2,341
4,309
Singapore
Category........
PNP
NOC Code......
2174
App. Filed.......
09-07-2017
Nomination.....
01-08-2017
AOR Received.
07-09-2017
File Transfer...
04-11-2017
Passport Req..
08-03-2018
Hi @legalfalcon, @BillHyatt, @vensak, @abhishek_89, & @iamxty

Your opinion is highly appreciated in this regards. Request you to share any experiences or events you might came across We certainly do not want to leave our spouse behind but it's just a logical way to get PR as soon as possible and later try with Spouse nomination program.

Thank you in advance.
If your spouse has ECA and IELTS, it may help boost your CRS. I’d rather have my application delayed for a few months (please note I added my husband after AOR) than leaving him behind. :)

As others have said, spousal sponsorship takes much longer than the EE.
 
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broutilde

Star Member
Dec 17, 2017
54
4
try after some time, it'll work alright. I am assuming, jokes aside, that too many people are trying to check if they have an ITA simultaneously. Must be a Black Friday sale like situation.
You were right, now I'm logged in but I have no new message even though I received an email saying that my appllication was updated :/
 

zagcollins

Champion Member
Sep 9, 2017
1,313
757
Category........
FSW
You were right, now I'm logged in but I have no new message even though I received an email saying that my appllication was updated :/
yeah am not sure about that application updated mail. Even I have received it in the past, but nothing in the account.
 

broutilde

Star Member
Dec 17, 2017
54
4
yeah am not sure about that application updated mail. Even I have received it in the past, but nothing in the account.
Well that sucks...I got 494 points, I was pretty sure I was going to be selected this round :( Too early to celebrate...
 

Varunaimar

Hero Member
Jan 25, 2018
718
419
India
Category........
FSW
Visa Office......
Ottawa
NOC Code......
2132
App. Filed.......
18-03-2018
AOR Received.
20-05-2018
IELTS Request
29-12-2017
Med's Done....
08-05-2018
Passport Req..
20-09-2018
VISA ISSUED...
04-10-2018
LANDED..........
26-04-2019
hi Varun,
i learnt from previous discussions that CIC will ask you why not your spouse accompanying you. its a tricky question, no will raise doubts.
if you say yes, they will include her while your calculating your CRS. your 458 will become around 435 in no time.
I myself has 456 but with spouse it was 431. have got her ECS done and sitting at 439 now. if required she will appear for IELTS to amass another 8-10 points atleast (its very easy to get this much).
i suggest you do some research before making final call.
experience holders, any comments please?
cheers, Sonny
Because I have a valid reason. My kid's academic year would be going on and my wife has to stay back and look after him. Once I get CoPR sometime like October, I can start their process.

But I really don't think they will ask why your spouse isn't accompanying. There can be hundreds of valid reasons like looking after aged parents etc.
 

KJB

Star Member
Oct 2, 2017
62
28
Hi, I am facing intermittent issues to login to CIC--My Application. Is any one has similar problem?
 

keyur sharma

Hero Member
Dec 3, 2016
676
190
34
Barrie
Category........
CEC
Job Offer........
Yes
Pre-Assessed..
Yes
App. Filed.......
1/07/2017
Doc's Request.
12/08/2017
Nomination.....
12/07/2017
AOR Received.
12/08/2017
IELTS Request
31/05/2017
Med's Request
12/08/2017
Med's Done....
12/09/2017
Passport Req..
26/10/2017
VISA ISSUED...
29/11/2017
LANDED..........
30/11/2017
No draw today guys
 

keyur sharma

Hero Member
Dec 3, 2016
676
190
34
Barrie
Category........
CEC
Job Offer........
Yes
Pre-Assessed..
Yes
App. Filed.......
1/07/2017
Doc's Request.
12/08/2017
Nomination.....
12/07/2017
AOR Received.
12/08/2017
IELTS Request
31/05/2017
Med's Request
12/08/2017
Med's Done....
12/09/2017
Passport Req..
26/10/2017
VISA ISSUED...
29/11/2017
LANDED..........
30/11/2017
Well that sucks...I got 494 points, I was pretty sure I was going to be selected this round :( Too early to celebrate...
U will be selected in next draw which will be on 7th feb
 
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Anitbiotic

Full Member
Nov 28, 2017
45
11
:)
During 2015 (except January 2015), Fridays was the favored day for draws which has since 2016 changed to Wednesdays although draws have taken place on other days too. Through 2015, 19 times draw took place on Friday, thrice on Saturday and once on Tuesday. Since 2016, draws have taken place 52 times on Wednesday, 5 times on Friday and twice on Thursday.

Draws during months with 5 Fridays in same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016:
If we consider all 3 occurrences with 5 Fridays in the same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and all 8 occurrences with 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016, then following have been my observation:

1) Fridays in May 2015: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draw took place only on the 22nd (incidentally, at 35 days this was also the longest wait between consecutive draws).

2) Fridays in July 2015: 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st out of which draws took place on the 10th and the 17th.

3) Fridays in October 2015: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 2nd and the 23rd.

4) Wednesdays in March 2016: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 9th and the 23rd.

5) Wednesdays in June 2016: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draws took place on the 1st, 15th and the 29th.

6) Wednesdays in August 2016: 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st out of which draws took place on the 10th and the 24th.

7) Wednesdays in November 2016: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 2nd, 16th and the 30th.

8) Draws in March 2017: Draws took place on Wednesday the 1st (out of Wednesday the 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th) and Friday the 24th.

9) Draws in May 2017: Draws took place on Thursday the 4th, Wednesday the 17th and 31st and Friday the 26th (out of which Friday the 26th was a double draw for PNP and FSTC respectively and which I’m considering as a single draw).

10) Wednesdays in August 2017: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 31st out of which draws took place on the 2nd, 9th and the 23rd.

11) Wednesdays in November 2017: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draws took place on the 1st, 8th and the 15th (out of which on the 1st was a double draw for PNP and FSTC respectively and which I’m considering as a single draw).


Number of draws during months having 5 Fridays through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays since 2016:
  • 1 Draw happened once: May 2015
  • 2 Draws happened 5 times: July 2015, October 2015, March 2016, August 2016, March 2017
  • 3 draws happened 4 times: June 2016, November 2016, August 2017, November 2017
  • 4 draws happened once: May 2017


Probability of draws for January 2018 (a month with 5 Wednesdays):
January 2018 is the current instance of a month with 5 Wednesdays which were on 1st, 10th, 17th, 24th and still going on today the 31st. Out of them, 2 draws have taken place on the 10th and the 24th. So the possibility of only 1 draw happening can be clearly ruled out. Also, today being the last likelihood of a draw this month, 4 draws happening can be ruled too (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw). That leaves us with just 2 possibilities:
  • 55.55% or 5/9 times probability that there will not be another draw today beyond the 2 draws that already happened this month.
  • 44.44% or 4/9 times probability that there will another draw today adding to the 2 draws earlier this month.

Not satisfied, I looked at the number of draws in the month preceding that month with 5 consecutive Fridays through 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 consecutive Wednesdays since 2016 (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw).
  • 2 followed by 1 means 2 draws in April 2015 were followed 1 in May 2015
  • 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in June 2015 were followed 2 of them in July 2015
  • 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in September 2015 were followed 2 of them in October 2015
  • 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in February 2016 were followed by 2 of them in March 2016
  • 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in May 2016 were followed by 3 of them in June 2016
  • 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in July 2016 were followed by 2 of them in August 2016
  • 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in October 2016 were followed by 3 of them in November 2016
  • 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in February 2017 were followed by 2 of them in March 2017
  • 3 followed by 4 means 3 draws in April 2017 were followed by 4 of them in May 2017
  • 1 followed by 3 means 1 draw in July 2017 was followed by 3 draws in August 2017
  • 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in October 2017 were followed by 3 of them in November 2017
  • 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in December 2017 have already been followed by 2 draws in January 2018


Probability of draws during months with 5 Fridays in same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016, factoring in draws in exactly preceding month:
There have been 9 precedents when 2 draws in a month were followed by a month with either 5 Fridays in 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 Wednesdays since 2016. Out of them, only once did the following month have a single draw. In the remaining cases, a following month with either 5 Fridays in 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 Wednesdays since 2016, had 2 draws 5 times and 3 draws 3 times.

Probability of draws for January 2018 (a month with 5 Wednesdays), factoring in 2 draws from December 2017:
Since January 2018 has already had 2 draws, we can clearly rule out the possibility of 1 draw this month. December 2017 having 2 draws may get followed by January 2018 with following possibilities:
  • 62.50% or 5/8 times probability that there will not be another draw today beyond the 2 draws that already happened this month.
  • 37.50% or 3/8 times probability that there will be another draw today adding to the 2 draws earlier this month.

Visualization:
I tried to visualize the data for days between consecutive draws versus the draws themselves (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw). I couldn’t infer anything other than what I already covered earlier. Attachment follows:


Closing Notes:
I feel like I’m trying to solve a problem that does not exist. The only thing predictable about the draws is how unpredictable CIC is. I’m as well waiting in the pool, praying for a draw today! If it doesn’t happen, at least we’d have cut the fortnight of waiting into half! Or hopefully not but possibly longer wait.

Is your NOC code 2161( Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries) ?:)
 

urvashi123

Star Member
Oct 4, 2017
124
38
Toronto
Category........
CEC
Visa Office......
Toronto
NOC Code......
2174
App. Filed.......
24-02-2018
AOR Received.
24-02-2018
why there is no back to back draws now like before ? :(