During 2015 (except January 2015), Fridays was the favored day for draws which has since 2016 changed to Wednesdays although draws have taken place on other days too. Through 2015, 19 times draw took place on Friday, thrice on Saturday and once on Tuesday. Since 2016, draws have taken place 52 times on Wednesday, 5 times on Friday and twice on Thursday.
Draws during months with 5 Fridays in same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016:
If we consider all 3 occurrences with 5 Fridays in the same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and all 8 occurrences with 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016, then following have been my observation:
1) Fridays in May 2015: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draw took place only on the 22nd (incidentally, at 35 days this was also the longest wait between consecutive draws).
2) Fridays in July 2015: 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st out of which draws took place on the 10th and the 17th.
3) Fridays in October 2015: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 2nd and the 23rd.
4) Wednesdays in March 2016: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 9th and the 23rd.
5) Wednesdays in June 2016: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draws took place on the 1st, 15th and the 29th.
6) Wednesdays in August 2016: 3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th and 31st out of which draws took place on the 10th and the 24th.
7) Wednesdays in November 2016: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 30th out of which draws took place on the 2nd, 16th and the 30th.
8) Draws in March 2017: Draws took place on Wednesday the 1st (out of Wednesday the 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th) and Friday the 24th.
9) Draws in May 2017: Draws took place on Thursday the 4th, Wednesday the 17th and 31st and Friday the 26th (out of which Friday the 26th was a double draw for PNP and FSTC respectively and which I’m considering as a single draw).
10) Wednesdays in August 2017: 2nd, 9th, 16th, 23rd and 31st out of which draws took place on the 2nd, 9th and the 23rd.
11) Wednesdays in November 2017: 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th out of which draws took place on the 1st, 8th and the 15th (out of which on the 1st was a double draw for PNP and FSTC respectively and which I’m considering as a single draw).
Number of draws during months having 5 Fridays through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays since 2016:
- 1 Draw happened once: May 2015
- 2 Draws happened 5 times: July 2015, October 2015, March 2016, August 2016, March 2017
- 3 draws happened 4 times: June 2016, November 2016, August 2017, November 2017
- 4 draws happened once: May 2017
Probability of draws for January 2018 (a month with 5 Wednesdays):
January 2018 is the current instance of a month with 5 Wednesdays which were on 1st, 10th, 17th, 24th and still going on today the 31st. Out of them, 2 draws have taken place on the 10th and the 24th. So the possibility of only 1 draw happening can be clearly ruled out. Also, today being the last likelihood of a draw this month, 4 draws happening can be ruled too (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw). That leaves us with just 2 possibilities:
- 55.55% or 5/9 times probability that there will not be another draw today beyond the 2 draws that already happened this month.
- 44.44% or 4/9 times probability that there will another draw today adding to the 2 draws earlier this month.
Not satisfied, I looked at the number of draws in the month preceding that month with 5 consecutive Fridays through 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 consecutive Wednesdays since 2016 (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw).
- 2 followed by 1 means 2 draws in April 2015 were followed 1 in May 2015
- 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in June 2015 were followed 2 of them in July 2015
- 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in September 2015 were followed 2 of them in October 2015
- 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in February 2016 were followed by 2 of them in March 2016
- 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in May 2016 were followed by 3 of them in June 2016
- 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in July 2016 were followed by 2 of them in August 2016
- 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in October 2016 were followed by 3 of them in November 2016
- 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in February 2017 were followed by 2 of them in March 2017
- 3 followed by 4 means 3 draws in April 2017 were followed by 4 of them in May 2017
- 1 followed by 3 means 1 draw in July 2017 was followed by 3 draws in August 2017
- 2 followed by 3 means 2 draws in October 2017 were followed by 3 of them in November 2017
- 2 followed by 2 means 2 draws in December 2017 have already been followed by 2 draws in January 2018
Probability of draws during months with 5 Fridays in same month through 2015 (except January 2015) and 5 Wednesdays in the same month since 2016, factoring in draws in exactly preceding month:
There have been 9 precedents when 2 draws in a month were followed by a month with either 5 Fridays in 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 Wednesdays since 2016. Out of them, only once did the following month have a single draw. In the remaining cases, a following month with either 5 Fridays in 2015 (except January 2015) or 5 Wednesdays since 2016, had 2 draws 5 times and 3 draws 3 times.
Probability of draws for January 2018 (a month with 5 Wednesdays), factoring in 2 draws from December 2017:
Since January 2018 has already had 2 draws, we can clearly rule out the possibility of 1 draw this month. December 2017 having 2 draws may get followed by January 2018 with following possibilities:
- 62.50% or 5/8 times probability that there will not be another draw today beyond the 2 draws that already happened this month.
- 37.50% or 3/8 times probability that there will be another draw today adding to the 2 draws earlier this month.
Visualization:
I tried to visualize the data for days between consecutive draws versus the draws themselves (I’m considering a double draw for PNP and FSTC happening on the same day as a single draw). I couldn’t infer anything other than what I already covered earlier. Attachment follows:
Closing Notes:
I feel like I’m trying to solve a problem that does not exist. The only thing predictable about the draws is how unpredictable CIC is. I’m as well waiting in the pool, praying for a draw today! If it doesn’t happen, at least we’d have cut the fortnight of waiting into half! Or hopefully not but possibly longer wait.
