Ray of Hope - 83rd Draw

[ihtesham88]

Here's what my take of the present situation...Anyone who has a score of 440 & above shouldnt worry & should wait for the ITA...They would mostly be through by mid feb...Anyone in the range of 400-439 who do get a NOI from OINP in the coming weeks , should not take a chance looking at the trends & unpredicability of CIC & should right away apply for OINP . Each of the previous years , Jan draws have a set a precedent for the things to follow in the whole year...My take is that 2018 is gonna follow the trends of 2016 wherein scores will hover around the 440 plus mark .Hence making OINP the safer & the only option

But the draws for 2017 shown the trend, otherwise.

started from 468 in Jan'17 then 459,453,447 & 431 till march 2017 with increased number of ITAs in each draw.

Let the size of ITA's increase, fall in crs is must.

with the target of 74k ITA thru FSW, if draw happens twice a month, they still have to issue about 3,100 ITAs per draw. We saw even more than two draws in few months last year.

So keeping in mind the increase of about 4K in PNP Quota, increase of 4K in FSW and considering the plan till 2020, the fall in CRS is looking obvious. Rest God and CIC knows better.

 

[Varunaimar]

If the cut-off would be 444 again for the next deaw, I won't be surprised. It's trully unpredictable.

In my opinion, they have emptied out everyone above 444 from 17 Jan 2018 onwards in the most recent draw. Next draw might see numbers going lower, but not by much. Remember that there are almost 4400 people between 441 to 450 of which about 1700 having 444 and above went through on Jan 24. So they won't have to dig too deep to fill 2750 slots. My call would be that the cut off will float in high 440s for some time unless they have back to back draws.

 

[Maziar]

Thanks Sundar..
But let's wait and see.
Could somebody share me the link for TEF exam preparation....
Struggling and trying ...

https://www.lefrancaisdesaffaires.fr/outils-preparation-tef/

 

[Kiki_tonia]

One trend I have observed is that January 2016 and 2017 both had 3 draws. So am hoping that 2018 will not be left out and we will have a draw next week;

2016 EE draw list;
January 6
January 13
January 27

2017 EE draw list;
January 4
January 11
January 25

so hopefully, 2018 EE draw list will look like this;
January 10
January 24
January 31

But well, one thing we have come to realize is that CIC is unpredictable.

 

[JJ_87]

It is very clear that we are going to see the same number of ITAs for every draw. 2750*2= 5500 ITAs in a month.
And 5500*12= 66000 in 2018.
Since there is a target for 72000 , we may see a max of 3 back to back draws(72000-66000=6000)
Hence there is only possibility for higher crs to get an invitation in the near future.
Guys am not being pessimistic as I have been in pool since June and seen many ups and downs.
In the mean time if anybody below 442 gets a PnP noi please go for it, because direct ita is a mere luck for you.
Am also losing my hopes for direct ita as I have to learn French(which is impossible for me at this stage)... and eagerly hoping for oinp.

its not 72000, its 74900 and they are not ITA targets, they are successful PR targets.

 

[Fhussain]

With the way things are going.. I am

One trend I have observed is that January 2016 and 2017 both had 3 draws. So am hoping that 2018 will not be left out and we will have a draw next week;

2016 EE draw list;
January 6
January 13
January 27

2017 EE draw list;
January 4
January 11
January 25

so hopefully, 2018 EE draw list will look like this;
January 10
January 24
January 31

But well, one thing we have come to realize is that CIC is unpredictable.

Not expecting a draw even on 7th Feb leave alone 31st Jan.. The reason is the trend of 2 draws each month... after 7th Feb they will have 14th and 28th (Wednesday)for the 2 draws.. keeping ITAs to 2750 each draw shows that its a planned approach. Fortunately for them with this magic number of 2750 they are getting profiles with higher CRS .. which is unfortunate for us..

 

[Varunaimar]

these 2750 draws are depressing... I have no hope for a 420 draw anytime soon anymore.

I'm packing up my life in South Africa now and going to go travel Europe for a bit and maybe settle there, thankfully I have a UK passport so I can still do that until Brexit next year.

Still hoping for Brexit to be scrapped, idiotic decision that one

Just wondering why you're so invested in getting into Canada because you have a UK passport unlike many of us here (Kolpak deal ? ). Anyway bro, not my place to make assumptions or anything about your intentions and I wish you well, but 420 seems highly unlikely.

 

[Varunaimar]

H1B scare will create an impact after 4-5 months. It will not create an immediate impact. Folks who are affected by H1B scare have to get their WES evaluated, prepare for IELTS and might not crack it the first attempt. So it is not going to create an immediate impact is what my assumption is.

That's what I thought as well, but i guess people there can crack IELTS more easily than us because logically they use English everywhere unlike us

 

[harman_778]

But the draws for 2017 shown the trend, otherwise.

started from 468 in Jan'17 then 459,453,447 & 431 till march 2017 with increased number of ITAs in each draw.

Let the size of ITA's increase, fall in crs is must.

with the target of 74k ITA thru FSW, if draw happens twice a month, they still have to issue about 3,100 ITAs per draw. We saw even more than two draws in few months last year.

So keeping in mind the increase of about 4K in PNP Quota, increase of 4K in FSW and considering the plan till 2020, the fall in CRS is looking obvious. Rest God and CIC knows better.

The trends for 2017 & 2018 are not the same ....2017 saw increased ITA in every draw in Jan which lead to drastic reduction in scores whereas in 2018 , the no of ITA's is stuck to 2750 hence next to negligible drop in the cut off

 

[maplenow]

I am writing my PhD thesis at the moment. But, I find myself reading more of the ROH pages than the articles for thesis

Friends, do not despair. I understand the feeling of getting rejected, not making it to the mark, being limited by the circumstances that are not in your control, getting stuck with some stupid paper works because the bureaucracy sucks, being forced to worry about your birthday (when actually we should be celebrating it), and so on. Despite all these obstacles our amazing friends have got what they aspired for and so will we. Being patient and motivated is a virtue and will only do us good, not just here in the ROH threads, but also in everything that we do.
I say this not because I have had a lot of success but because I had to deal with failures. So, I cannot help but remain optimistic about the future.

 

[Varunaimar]

The trends for 2017 & 2018 are not the same ....2017 saw increased ITA in every draw in Jan which lead to drastic reduction in scores whereas in 2018 , the no of ITA's is stuck to 2750 hence next to negligible drop in the cut off

Completely agree. The only way we possibly might see a reduction in draw is if less people join our day or if there are back to back draws

 

[Kiki_tonia]

With the way things are going.. I am

Not expecting a draw even on 7th Feb leave alone 31st Jan.. The reason is the trend of 2 draws each month... after 7th Feb they will have 14th and 28th (Wednesday)for the 2 draws.. keeping ITAs to 2750 each draw shows that its a planned approach. Fortunately for them with this magic number of 2750 they are getting profiles with higher CRS .. which is unfortunate for us..

After their big announcement in November 2017 to increase the numbers accepted into the FSW, CEC & FST class, and of which I presume their aim is to get more people interested in applying for PR in Canada, why will they suddenly turn around and begin to issue less ITAs and fewer draws? That will indeed defeat the purpose of "Canada Immigration Plan for 2018-2020". So I strongly believe that this shortcoming is for a while and we shall see things turnaround soon.

 

[Manish Parashar]

"THOSE WHO STAY WILL BE CHAMPIONS"
Don't loose hope friends......if people at 430s 440s will start to loose hope....then what about us who are down in the dumps at 410s - 420s

 

[ypaul]

Can somebody share the TEF exam preparation link...
I have no idea of this exam.
Where do I get proper information about it?

TEF is french language test, I haven't given it as I don't know any french but from what I have read online, its a hard exam and is perceived non-trivial even by people from france. If you have years of experience of french, then you should consider it otherwise its going to be useless.

You may read more about it over here:
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/tef-test-is-easy-or-difficult.368401/

 

[ankitptrivedi]

There is no way they can achieve the intake targets by keeping the draw size at 2750, so sooner or later they will increase the draw size. Those who might have missed it, read this post : https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/posts/6667329/