Ray of Hope - 81st Draw

[AlliBatista]

Is CIC on vacation today?

 

[Jakilee]

Your estimates on the number of candidates left in the CRS 441-450 range is inaccurate.

We had around 1260 applicants @ CRS 441-450 range on Dec 18. The cut off was 446 for the Dec 20th draw so atleast half of the 1260 applicants would be remaining in the pool on Dec 20th without an ITA which means the numbers should be around 630 or more considering not all on CRS 446 would have got an ITA and more people would be in the 441-445 range than in the 446-450 range.

So, if the number of ITAs don't increase and remain constant at 2750 and the next draw happens on Jan 3rd, it would be extremely unlikely for the cut off to fall below CRS 440.

You ignored a very important factor. the last breakdown that was given was on 18th December, the last draw was two days later, if you remove 2750 from the last draw you will end up with just about 100 people left in the 441 to 450 range. However, given that there was about 36hrs between the last breakdown and the last draw, its safe to assume only 120 to 200 people enter the pool at 441 and above during that 36hrs.

Finally, British council offices are closed till January 2nd, 3 days holiday means lower number of new ECAs.

So my assumption is not really out of place if you factor in all this dynamics.

But like I said, its just permutation and I may be wrong.

 

[saimurali88]

Is CIC on vacation today?

They are open today as per their twitter handle.

 

[Snapdragon]

Just sharing my feelings:
I was born and live in a very mono-cultural society, full of stereotypes and prejudice. Having made some choices in my life that does not go hand in hand with the general values of the society here, I find it very difficult to live here as I feel I need to justify myself all the time instead of just living peacefully as myself. Canada in my eyes offers the opportunity to be accepted and respected no matter who you are and how you choose to live your life. And most importantly, I want my children to be proud of who they are instead of leading their lives scared and misunderstood.

 

[Sidish]

I have a feeling that we might see the 81st draw on 27th Dec.

Me too but it’s very unlikely

 

[Aryaansohaali]

I wanted to ask that what is the probability of not having a draw on 3 jan?? I am at 446 got hurt last time with tie breaker rule. I know I will receive an ITA if we have a draw on jan 3 but in case we don’t the CRS is bound to increase again. My problem is my PCCs are expiring in feb so desperately need an ITA by end of jan maximum. What do the experts say?? tia

 

[arthurbr]

I wanted to ask that what is the probability of not having a draw on 3 jan?? I am at 446 got hurt last time with tie breaker rule. I know I will receive an ITA if we have a draw on jan 3 but in case we don’t the CRS is bound to increase again. My problem is my PCCs are expiring in feb so desperately need an ITA by end of jan maximum. What do the experts say?? tia

Nobody knows for sure.

 

[Emnafrancks]

I wanted to ask that what is the probability of not having a draw on 3 jan?? I am at 446 got hurt last time with tie breaker rule. I know I will receive an ITA if we have a draw on jan 3 but in case we don’t the CRS is bound to increase again. My problem is my PCCs are expiring in feb so desperately need an ITA by end of jan maximum. What do the experts say?? tia

The probability of not having a draw on 3rd Jan is very low (<0.2). Don't fret. You'll definitely get an ITA on that date and I expect the CRS to be less than 446.

 

[nismavrik]

Hello seniors, I am at 420, what are my chances.

 

[benzboksas]

Oh well I can rant about this topic for hours if given the chance

I was born in the the gulf, im 32, with no sense of true identity. Hold a passport of a country where if I go back will always be considered an outsider, born in a country with the same privileges of a person who just landed on a resident visa just today morning.

Desperate to gain an identity from a country open to diversity and also gives me the privileges as one of their own. I always wished my parents thought about us when they decided to move abroad. Dont get me wrong, i honestly dont hold any grudges against them for this. they had a purpose and the fulfilled it according to their ambitions.

Whereas my ambitions are concerned, i wanna give my kids a better future and someday when they grow older they can look back and have no room for any regrets to where they are at that time.

Good luck to you! You're on the right path.

 

[Anu-89]

Is there a draw today??
What r my chances @427

 

[abhishek_89]

You ignored a very important factor. the last breakdown that was given was on 18th December, the last draw was two days later, if you remove 2750 from the last draw you will end up with just about 100 people left in the 441 to 450 range. However, given that there was about 36hrs between the last breakdown and the last draw, its safe to assume only 120 to 200 people enter the pool at 441 and above during that 36hrs.

Finally, British council offices are closed till January 2nd, 3 days holiday means lower number of new ECAs.

So my assumption is not really out of place if you factor in all this dynamics.

But like I said, its just permutation and I may be wrong.

I had a follow-up post on the same, it explains why people tend to get into the EE pool in the last few days before the draw.
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-81st-draw.534225/page-15#post-6602607

Around 400-500 folks would have got back into the EE pool (with CRS 441 and above) in the last 2 days before the draw (this includes new profile creations, those who improved their CRS, those who declined an ITA which was received previously). This is called last minute rush!

 

[Kevin Kav]

When I create an Express Entry profile, I did not see any area to insert my kids’ information, do you see any issue or any mistake that I made?

After creating the profile, when I logged in, just my wife name is there as a dependent.

 

[abhishek_89]

I wanted to ask that what is the probability of not having a draw on 3 jan?? I am at 446 got hurt last time with tie breaker rule. I know I will receive an ITA if we have a draw on jan 3 but in case we don’t the CRS is bound to increase again. My problem is my PCCs are expiring in feb so desperately need an ITA by end of jan maximum. What do the experts say?? tia

Very very low chance of not having a draw till Jan 3rd.

 

[shersingh]

I don't expect a draw today, but I would say keep an eye on Jan 3rd draw. It will be an important draw in defining how low/high the crs will be in 2018. If the numbers are raised, we can possibly estimate how fast/ low the crs will drop. And, importantly, let us hope they don't stick with the evil number : 2750

Remember that there are approx 3500 people in 431-440