Ray of Hope - 79th Draw

[raxdsouza]

Waiting for ur predictions bro...

Seeing CIC's tendency in having draws on the 1st Wednesday of every month, I am going with the below prediction:

Draw 79: Nov 29
Draw 80: Dec 6
Draw 81: Dec 20
Draw 82: Jan 3
Draw 83: Jan 10
Draw 84: Jan 24

Dec 6 and Jan 10 are 1-week gap draws. If it happens, should help to lower the CRS cut off!

 

[abhishek_89]

@ abhishek_89 , I have a question for you , the 15th Nov draw was based on the CRS pool as of Oct -26th or before that ? I do not think it was based on Oct 26th.

Based on the numbers below and if IELTS results are not coming out until Nov 22 (I think so,may be wrong ) , there will be less number of candidates entering with higher CRS score in a week .

if the draw happens based on Oct 26th CRS pool on Nov 22nd then for 2800 ITA

CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 163 [Invitation ]
451-600 759 [Invitation ]
441-450 260 [Invitation ]
431-440 1,586 [Invitation ]
421-430 3,421 [32 Candidate Invitation ]

Total = 2800

The above is simple math based on the CRS pool and # of ITA ,so the score would be around 430 if the draw is happening on 22nd. what other things can influences these numbers ? I am following your predication but just not sure how much % variations are possible.

The 78th draw happened on 15th Nov, so they invited those who were in the pool on 15th Nov and the pool composition on 15th Nov would not be same as the pool composition on 26th Oct.

The next draw will be based on the pool composition on that particular draw date.

On Nov 15th, just after the draw occurred, the pool composition was as below (as everyone above CRS 439 got ITA and moved out of the pool):
601-1200 0
451-600 0
441-450 0
431-440 ?
421-430 ?

 

[abhishek_89]

Looks like next draw if on Wednesday 22-Nov ,will be around with cut off 434-438

Below is how the pool looks ,and with 2800 ITA.

Range / 26-Oct / 9-Nov / Change / Result
601-1200 / 163 / 31 / -132 / Invitation
451-600 / 759 / 675 / -84 / Invitation
441-450 / 260 / 871 / +611 / Invitation
431-440 / 1586 / 2,256 / +670 / Invitation to 1223 candidates
421-430 / 3421 / 3590 / +169 / 0

If the draw happens on Nov 22nd, the draw would account for the pool composition on that particular day (Nov 22).

 

[MippiShick]

Looks like next draw if on Wednesday 22-Nov ,will be around with cut off 434-438

Below is how the pool looks ,and with 2800 ITA.

Range / 26-Oct / 9-Nov / Change / Result
601-1200 / 163 / 31 / -132 / Invitation
451-600 / 759 / 675 / -84 / Invitation
441-450 / 260 / 871 / +611 / Invitation
431-440 / 1586 / 2,256 / +670 / Invitation to 1223 candidates
421-430 / 3421 / 3590 / +169 / 0

Hopefully < 432.
Goodluck to us ALL. This wait is......exhausting!

 

[Mathews86]

Answers included

Dear sundar17feb99 ,

Thanks for your reply.

Just for clarification:

For question no: 1, yes a large no: of colleges will be affiliated to the university and mine is one of them. So I have to put it like
a. City/town of study (required) - Place of my college where I studied
b.Name of school/institution (required) - The university name

Please confirm whether my understanding is right?

For question no: 2, can we answer that as "No", since it applies to the spouse who is the Primary applicant in this case?


If anyone else have a different opinion kindly post your replies to my previous message.

Thanks

 

[vensak]

The 78th draw happened on 15th Nov, so they invited those who were in the pool on 15th Nov and the pool composition on 15th Nov would not be same as the pool composition on 26th Oct.

The next draw will be based on the pool composition on that particular draw date.

On Nov 15th, just after the draw occurred, the pool composition was as below (as everyone above CRS 439 got ITA and moved out of the pool):
601-1200 0
451-600 0
441-450 0
431-440 ?
421-430 ?

LOLOLOLOL
EE is an opened dynamic system. You can clearly see it on numbers. A draw did happen between those 26.10 and 9.11 and yet there were PNP applicants again. And draws did happen before with lower CRS score, but you can see people with 440+ in the pool.

Thinking about "everyone above CRS XYZ moved out of the pool" is very very very shortsighted.

 

[Samroze]

LOLOLOLOL
EE is an opened dynamic system. You can clearly see it on numbers. A draw did happen between those 26.10 and 9.11 and yet there were PNP applicants again. And draws did happen before with lower CRS score, but you can see people with 440+ in the pool.

Thinking about "everyone above CRS XYZ moved out of the pool" is very very very shortsighted.

That was as on Nov 15- after the draw obviously the numbers above crs 439 will be zero, but as on today there will definitely be additions. There is nothing funny about it.

 

[Samroze]

If the draw happens on Nov 22nd, the draw would account for the pool composition on that particular day (Nov 22).

Awaiting your predictions for Nov 22 and Nov 29 bro

 

[abhishek_89]

It better be < 432 for those of us who have waited.
Goodluck to us ALL. This wait is......exhausting!

The CRS cut off will surely be less than 432 if they issue 2750 ITA's on Nov 22nd.

 

[abhishek_89]

LOLOLOLO
EE is an opened dynamic system. You can clearly see it on numbers. A draw did happen between those 26.10 and 9.11 and yet there were PNP applicants again. And draws did happen before with lower CRS score, but you can see people with 440+ in the pool.

Thinking about "everyone above CRS XYZ moved out of the pool" is very very very shortsighted.

Please read my post again. I clearly mentioned that the pool composition would be as I showed just after the draw occurred. I basically meant to say the pool gets cleared when the draw happens and then applicants start filling in.

 

[vensak]

That was as on Nov 15- after the draw obviously the numbers above crs 439 will be zero, but as on today there will definitely be additions. There is nothing funny about it.

Your statement is not correct.
Why, because there were some accounts that were activated too late or the changes were not reflected soon enough. It takes up to 24 hours for any update you do to be visible.

For the sake of the draw, they will check that status on active profiles at certain points of time. Anybody whose change was released just a bit too late will not be included in the draw.
In addition for the ITA itself (as it seems to be done manually), it takes app. 1 day to be finished. And you account remains active until the very moment of receiving ITA

So at any given moment the amount of the applicants above 439 points was higher than 0 (be it at the moment when they took the "picture" of the pool for the draw, the moment of the announcing the ITA or the moment when last ITA for that draw was sent out.

 

[abhishek_89]

That was as on Nov 15- after the draw obviously the numbers above crs 439 will be zero, but as on today there will definitely be additions. There is nothing funny about it.

Exactly.

 

[Samroze]

Your statement is not correct.
Why, because there were some accounts that were activated too late or the changes were not reflected soon enough. It takes up to 24 hours for any update you do to be visible.

For the sake of the draw, they will check that status on active profiles at certain points of time. Anybody whose change was released just a bit too late will not be included in the draw.
In addition for the ITA itself (as it seems to be done manually), it takes app. 1 day to be finished. And you account remains active until the very moment of receiving ITA

So at any given moment the amount of the applicants above 439 points was higher than 0 (be it at the moment when they took the "picture" of the pool for the draw, the moment of the announcing the ITA or the moment when last ITA for that draw was sent out.

Wow looks you landed here from cic
I'm not a pro like you to think so deeply

 

[abhishek_89]

Your statement is not correct.
Why, because there were some accounts that were activated too late or the changes were not reflected soon enough. It takes up to 24 hours for any update you do to be visible.

For the sake of the draw, they will check that status on active profiles at certain points of time. Anybody whose change was released just a bit too late will not be included in the draw.
In addition for the ITA itself (as it seems to be done manually), it takes app. 1 day to be finished. And you account remains active until the very moment of receiving ITA

So at any given moment the amount of the applicants above 439 points was higher than 0 (be it at the moment when they took the "picture" of the pool for the draw, the moment of the announcing the ITA or the moment when last ITA for that draw was sent out.

If the account was not activated, then the applicant is not considered to be in the EE pool anyways. Please understand the logic behind mentioning the pool is cleared. It was to show that the numbers which you see 1 week after the draw are all added in that 1 week time frame.

 

[saimurali88]

If the draw happens on Nov 22nd, the draw would account for the pool composition on

I know you said this for illustrative purpose , but I badly want the draw to happen on 22nd bro