Ray of Hope - 77th Draw

[Tayyab29]

Hey - I have 462. Please let me know once you get invite. I think it will be issued through tomorrow.

hey man. di u get it? I got mine

 

[Tayyab29]

WOWWW! I can only reply mine tomorrow

dnt worry. my point are 459. If you have more or same, then u will get for sure

 

[absz]

dnt worry. my point are 459. If you have more or same, then u will get for sure

Mine is 469 date of submission 31st Oct

 

[abhishek_89]

Mine is 469 date of submission 31st Oct

Date of submission does not matter for you. It only matters for those with CRS exactly same as the cut off for this draw (CRS 458).
You will get ITA within 24 hours.

 

[Gogetter2017]

Got it, but can't open the messages. Now need to file the actual application ... Good luck to all.

 

[SrikanthRam]

Date of submission does not matter for you. It only matters for those with CRS exactly same as the cut off for this draw (CRS 458).
You will get ITA within 24 hours.

Hey Abhishek, after this brutal draw - do you have any revised predictions for ~435

 

[abhishek_89]

How does the Tie-breaking rule work for this draw (Draw 77 - CRS 458)?

Scenario 1: Your CRS is 459 or above, then ITA guaranteed.
Scenario 2: Your CRS is 457 or below, then wait for next draw. Sorry, no ITA this time!
Scenario 3: Your CRS is 458 and profile created on or before October 23, 2017 (15:58:27 UTC), then ITA guaranteed.
Scenario 4: Your CRS is 458 and profile created after October 23, 2017 (15:58:27 UTC), then wait for next draw. Sorry, no ITA this time!

 

[abhishek_89]

Hey Abhishek, after this brutal draw - do you have any revised predictions for ~435

If they continue with 2000 ITA's and 2 week gap draws, the cut off is not going to reach 435 anytime soon.
If they go back to the previous trend of 2800 ITAs and 2 week gap draws, the cut off will reach 435 in due course.

 

[abhishek_89]

By the same time next year all the folks between 300-350 will be having the similar conversation like using between 400-450. I know I'm too optimistic but yeah it will happen

Based on the PR targets announced last week, 300-350 CRS cut off is not happening till 2020 atleast!

 

[abhishek_89]

Congrats everyone.. I was at 445 and was expecting ITA.. Little did I know...when is the next cut off likely to be declared?

There is a good chance for the next draw to happen on Nov 15 but the most likely draw date is Nov 22.

 

[darkmago]

I GOT INVITED, OMG OMG OMG, I am soy Happy, I almost fainted, guys guys I am about to cry. I am serious.

 

[abhishek_89]

As both Draw 75 and Draw 76 occurred on the same day (Nov 1 - which was the predicted date for Draw 75), changing the draw numbers for the remaining draws. Predicted dates remain same though!

Draw Date Prediction: https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-72nd-draw.516087/page-50#post-6355354

I am predicting the remaining draw dates for 2017:

Draw 77: Nov 8
Draw 78: Nov 22
Draw 79: Dec 6
Draw 80: Dec 20

I am expecting 4 more draws in 2017.

Yet again CIC has a draw on the date I predicted OR Are they following these dates to schedule the draw?

 

[SrikanthRam]

If they continue with 2000 ITA's and 2 week gap draws, the cut off is not going to reach 435 anytime soon.
If they go back to the previous trend of 2800 ITAs and 2 week gap draws, the cut off will reach 435 in due course.

Just curious, isn't this draw roughly equal to 2800 as they will issue/have issued 2000 based on today's cut-off and 800 in the last one for PNP and FST?

 

[abhishek_89]

I have come up with the prediction for the 77th draw.

If it happens on:
Nov 08 - CRS 446 - ITAs 2776
Nov 09 - CRS 448 - ITAs 2764
Nov 10 - CRS 449 - ITAs 2820

The variance in the above calculation is +/- 3 CRS.

Please find below the CRS cut off on each date (in case the number of ITAs issued is more/less than the predicted ITA count):

Even my extended prediction had a minimum of 2398 ITAs (almost 400 more than the actuals) with CRS 451 as the cut off!

I won't be able to predict cut offs above 451 as the data provided by CIC has a 150 value range of 451-600 (need to figure out some method).

Hopefully the cut off goes below 451 soon and eases my job!

 

[abhishek_89]

Just curious, isn't this draw roughly equal to 2800 as they will issue/have issued 2000 based on today's cut-off and 800 in the last one for PNP and FST?

Yes, the only good news from today's draw is that the targets might still be around 2800 in the next draw and not 2000!

In an ideal situation going with the trend in the past few months, they should have issued 2800 every 2 weeks, so it should have been as below:
Nov 1 - 2800
Nov 15 - 2800

Instead, they have issued as below:
Nov 1 + Nov 8 - 2800

So will they issue 2800 on Nov 15? Keep your fingers crossed!