Very hard to predict so far. But for sure, U.S. negotiators are putting more and more poison pills to both Canada and Mexico. However we are talking about very significant money, more than a billion per day just between Canada and US, so whoever is president, one cannot simply kill such a deal without significantly affecting the economy of his country. And Canada, in my opinion, is playing its cards well. In addition to the negotiation table, they are meeting several influential senators and member of the congress. Trump might try to kill nafta, I'm not sure that the Senate and the congress will let it happen.
Regarding our currency, no doubts that it would be affected if nafta is killed, but the U.S. dollar would also be affected. And one good thing that Canada did over the last decade was to sign trade agreements with others, like with Columbia, trans-pacific, European Union. Our economy still depends a lot on the U.S., but much less than before.
@Sam8119
You missed China!
. There is also a movement called CANZUK. I'll let you google that. We have moved all our eggs around the world. Will it hurt? Absolutely. Can we do it? Absolutely.
If the question was to me, and we are finally permitted to exercise our rights here WRT political thought, I'd say there is a significant chance it's going to die.
The US has made unrealistic demands to attempt to kill NAFTA. Example: they want something like 80% NA content from the auto sector to be made in NA. And 65% or something of that must be American. Including steel. Another is that every Canadian Government procurement, the contract must be awarded to an American company; to "offset Canada's smaller population". Access to protected markets, like dairy, etc.
The other side of the table has also made demands. I'm not sure the Prez is smart enough to catch on to what's happening, though. Example: Canada has a problem with labour standards in both Mexico and US. They have lower standards than we do, so they can make things cheaper -- making it harder to compete. So, on it's face, things like minimum wage, max hours per week, etc looks fine. However, look deeper -- health care is also something subsidized by employers (or is by taxes, each province is different). The Senate caught on -- senators have introduced a bill to correct employment standards (and some have wrote that they were embarrassed that Canadian negotiators had to tell them of the problem).
Is it dead, yeah maybe. But that introduces a YUGE problem. Canada is America's largest source of secure energy. Electricity, Oil, Gas, Uranium, etc. NAFTA regulates that. No NAFTA, well, you can do the math here.
Mexico and Canada are committed to the deal. They will persist, even if US backs out. UK mused this week that, they might want in to mitigate Brexit.
Take it all with a grain. Chrystia Freeland is on the job. She clenched the CETA deal, even when all thought hope was lost. Additionally, Ontario alone trades nearly $1bln/ day with just the US (more than 20 states list Ontario as top import/export partner). Add the other provinces, and we are up to Justin's figure of ~2.5bln USD / day trade. The Ways and Means committee in Congress does possess the ability to torpedo Trump ending NAFTA -- and they side 99.995% (just made up a number, because it's so close to total) with Justin's comments to them from Wednesday. Also important to note: Mexico and Canada entered into a pact to fight Trump trying to end this. Presently, Mexico definately seems to be taking cues from Canada's team, and after they certainly decompress together to compare notes.