Ray of Hope - 73rd Draw

[mumair88]

Any chance of draw tomorrow

 

[Pikecann]

Any chance of draw tomorrow

there's always hope

 

[wickerman]

I dont think there will be a draw this week. I am betting on October 4th.

 

[trumprefugee]

All lies, I am in USA right now and having no issues. Applying for Canada, just in case I couldnt extend my stay in USA. else I would any day prefer USA over Canada

I'm glad to hear you have not been the victim of hate crimes or know anyone who has been. I wish it were not true, but unfortunately hate crimes have been on the rise since Trump came to prominence in the 2016 election campaigns. See for example these links for details:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/cair-hate-crimes-muslims-spike-trump-win-170718034249621.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hate-crime-rise-2016-united-states-trump_us_59becac8e4b086432b07fed8
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/14/politics/charts-explain-us-hate-groups/index.html

 

[Harmin_15]

I was waiting for ielts results which was supposed to come out on 1st September but came on 20th Sepetember, else I would have filed my papers by now. Keeping my fingers crossed I hope draw doesn't go up. My scores are 436

 

[mvmt]

Congrats on your job offer! Maybe OINP wants to consider you under the job offer stream? However, you would need to get LMIA in order to get the nomination under the job offer stream.

Thank you Trumprefugee! I don't really know under which stream Ontario is considering my nomination as it is not mentioned in the letter, that's why I was hoping they had already reopened the intake of applications. As for the LMIA, I don't think it'd be viable and I haven't even tried to get it. I guess I'll have to keep on waiting to submit the application once it reopens.

Thank you and all the best for you!!!

 

[andieangel]

Strongly disagree qouta is for landing PRs not for ITAs so where the point of make up comes here in the past they reduced the number of ITAs to make up for paper applicants because at that time express entry were filling only 50% of their landing quota and from 2017 express entry is the main driver for economic immigrants landing so where does make up comes in between.

Suppose for example their quota was 100K landings for economic immigrants in 2016 that time 50K would have come from express entry and 50K were paper applicants from the past to clear the backlog, so eventually they filled up their quota.

From 2017 for example 100K quota of economic immigrants landings are there these 100K will come from express entry so where does the make up situation come up here?

And you can google about 2018 quota the minister clearly said that 2017 is a benchmark for future immigration target and it will only increase gradually from here because some agencies in canada want immigration quota to rise from 300K to 350-400K in next yr.

So even if they dont increase there quota suppose for example if it is still 100K landing quota for economic immigrants then they will have to replicate what they did in 2017 because if they keep on doing 2500-2700 ITA draws they will not be able to fill up their quota.

ITAs goes down because of workload as they cant set a specific number of ITAs so at some point ITAs will remain high number in months which are more productive then after some time they have to reduce the number

It’s like you’re reading my mind and nicely putting it in words and meaningful sentences. Thank you for this. I agree 100% with you.

 

[msayyad]

I'm glad to hear you have not been the victim of hate crimes or know anyone who has been. I wish it were not true, but unfortunately hate crimes have been on the rise since Trump came to prominence in the 2016 election campaigns. See for example these links for details:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/cair-hate-crimes-muslims-spike-trump-win-170718034249621.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hate-crime-rise-2016-united-states-trump_us_59becac8e4b086432b07fed8
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/14/politics/charts-explain-us-hate-groups/index.html

Not if you live in a city

 

[Jojolet]

That explains your writing styles and composition. I like your spirit too. Well-done

 

[abhishek_89]

I kinda disagree with your whole analysis ...no one here is saying that the scores wouldnt go below 400...they might but if they continue drawing 4000 people every 2 weeks then they might not even have a pool of people to draw in 12 months time ...moreover my take is that the 1st 6 months of 2017 saw the scores being dependant on the no of ITA's issued however since June changes , CRS score is driving the number of ITA's to be issued ...how else would you explain 2 draws in 2 months in June & July & shooting the scores from 413 to 449 . As for them exhausting their quota for the year , if they really had exhausted their quota then they wouldnt have come out with 3 draws in August...Had they Come out with 2 draws of 4000 each in Aug it would have lead to an ITA to 8000 people in a month whereas coming out with 3 draws in a month with 2700 odd people also translates into the same number of ITA's in august but the score drop was controlled . I still feel they are stalling the no of ITA's because they want the scores to go down but not that drastically as they might want the bottom cutoff for 2018 to be around CRS of 350-375 which is only possible if scores remain around 425-430 at year end 2017.

Based on my analysis during the April/May draws, on an average 3800 folks were getting added to the pool every 2 weeks with a CRS of 415 and above. So, don't even dream of the pool being emptied with 4000 ITAs distributed every 2 weeks.
The past 4 draws have shown that on an average 2800-3000 folks are getting added to the pool every 2 weeks with a CRS of 430 and above.

Immigration depends on government targets which are set prior to the start of the year. CIC cannot intake more than the target and need to work towards achieving the PR targets set. So PR targets determine the number of ITAs issued every year not the CRS.

In June/July, CIC would have re-evaluated their targets and set a new baseline for the number of ITAs being issued based on the remaining target for the year.

Based on my analysis, we would have around 7 draws remaining with around 20K ITAs remaining in 2017 which would total upto 90K ITAs in 2017. I am expecting the lowest cut off in the next 3 months to be around 420-425 (gut feel is 423) unless they hike the number of ITAs issued.

Keeping the same target of 90K ITAs for 2018 and around 25-28 draws next year, we would be averaging around 3200-3600 ITA's per draw next year (which would mean few months of 4000 ITA draws and few months of 2800 ITA draws). So, the CRS cut off would surely come down maybe to the lower 400 ranges (401-410) but the cut off going below 400 is in itself a distant possibility unless they increase the targets for 2018. CRS 350-375 cut off with around the same target in 2018 is not possible unless Canada has a serious issue that leads people not to migrate to that country.

 

[trumprefugee]

Thank you Trumprefugee! I don't really know under which stream Ontario is considering my nomination as it is not mentioned in the letter, that's why I was hoping they had already reopened the intake of applications. As for the LMIA, I don't think it'd be viable and I haven't even tried to get it. I guess I'll have to keep on waiting to submit the application once it reopens.

Thank you and all the best for you!!!

What's your NOC code? If you're in a skilled trade or in-demand (agricultural) skill, those streams are open:
http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPTRADES.html
http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPINDEMAND.html

 

[trumprefugee]

Not if you live in a city

I do think that it's safer in big cities overall, since big cities tend to be more diverse and with more open minded people. Unfortunately even and particularly in big cities, hate crimes in the US are rising. Big cities are also targets for terrorist attacks - remember the September 11, 2001 attacks happened in New York.

Hate Crimes in US Rising, Particularly in Big Cities
https://shieldformuslims.com/2017/03/15/hate-crimes-in-us-rising-particularly-in-big-cities/

Just recently, two Jewish women mistaken for Muslims were assaulted here in New York, the biggest city in the US, in a hate crime:
http://nypost.com/2017/09/14/jewish-women-mistaken-for-muslims-assaulted-in-hate-crime/

Earlier this year, in the city of Olathe, Kansas, two Indian engineers were shot at a bar in a hate crime
http://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/indian-killed-in-kansas-hate-crimes-in-us-are-rising-since-trump-assumed-office/story-zTBmdRsbsmI8hJJ1d88m5N.html

Some more articles about the rise in hate crimes in New York
http://time.com/4688420/anti-semitic-hate-crimes-new-york-city/
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/20/us/hate-crime-unit-new-york/index.html

 

[mvmt]

What's your NOC code? If you're in a skilled trade or in-demand (agricultural) skill, those streams are open:
http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPTRADES.html
http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPINDEMAND.html

My NOC is 8255. I meet all the requirements for the skilled trade stream, except I'm not currently living in Ontario, so I guess that makes me ineligible. Do you know if they are currently sending NOI to everyone in the pool??

 

[trumprefugee]

My NOC is 8255. I meet all the requirements for the skilled trade stream, except I'm not currently living in Ontario, so I guess that makes me ineligible. Do you know if they are currently sending NOI to everyone in the pool??

Great news for you! You will be eligible as soon as you move to Ontario for your new job. So get thee over to Ontario, and then submit your OINP application.

 

[wickerman]

I have a question that Ive been meaning to ask for quite some time.

I have 3 NOCs.

2004-2007 - NOC 2173
2007-2013 - NOC 2171
2015 to Present - NOC 1122.

Now in the application, the NOC I am specifying is 1122 (The NOC that you mention up top to immigrate).

The CRS score is calculated based on my overall work experience being more than 3 years (which it is). Which is what I specified.

My question is, because I am immigrating on NOC 1122 and because on that particular NOC 3 years hasnt passed, is this an issue when I submit my application? Will that in anyway reduce my overall CRS points? Or is the CRS points based on overall work ex (if it is, then there is no problem)?