Ray of Hope - 72nd Draw

[Wandering Mind]

Friends I have a question...

ONIP invitation is valid for 6 months...suppose the 6 months validity is over and if I don't see any chances for an ITA directly and...I wish to take the ONIP route...but its expired...

How can I get ONIP invitation again?

Once your Notification of Interest (NOI) from Ontario expires, you can recreate your profile and wait to be invited again. However, when you'll be invited again depends on the remaining quota for this year.

Good luck.

 

[Karnesh]

I would like to understand couple of points if someone can clarify

• What is the yearly quota/number for express entry? When did it start (Jan 2017?)? When will it end (Dec 2017?) ? Is the next year count counted from Jan 2018 - Dec 2018?
• Does the target numbers includes the principal applicant + participants? If so, is there any clarity on what is the proportional count to be considered on a single ITA?
• How much of PNP's actually go through the express entry?

On the web, I could see that for 100 ITA's, 85 ITA's are actually submitted and 3% is rejected. In summary, 83/100 ITA's are actually being materialized

I am asking these questions to think about the draw sizes. As many of you know that the draw size and frequency greatly govern the CRS, I wish to do some more analysis around this to educate myself.

IMO, if the number of ITA's is below 3K, the score will hover around 430 considering the inflow of profiles. This is based on analysis of 6 months of data.

In two weeks, the number of aspirants joining/enhancing their scores to the range
> 600 === 150
450-600 === 500
441-450 === 275
431-440 === 500
421-430 === 400

If there is an IELTS result between the draws, there is an surge in the number of people > 430 ~ 1000 people (This is what the statistics says)
If there is no IELTS result, there is still an increase of around 500 people in this range.

If i back track this count for the previous couple of draws, if we fit in the numbers, we get the write crs number.

Based on this, unless we have a back to back draw, or draw count greater than 3500 the CRS will mostly hover around 430.

• What is the yearly quota/number for express entry? (http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-plan-2017.html)
• Does the target numbers includes the principal applicant + participants? -don't know. If so, is there any clarity on what is the proportional count to be considered on a single ITA?- I have not seen any report but when you start loosing points after 29 that means you're still young and either single or married and with or without Kids. (2016 Share for different categories from total issued ITA's - PNP-25%, FSW-25%, CEC- 45%, TRADERS-5%) (so CEC applicants are mostly young graduates or what.??) Now all files are entering through EE only so % can change in 2017. (FSW % Should go up as there're less back-logs to clear now and with Increased ITA's)
• ITA ISSUED SO FAR- Around 67K. (IF PNP 25% (2016 Avg. On higher side) PNP-17-20K, 5% Rejection/- 4-5K, Meaning we still have 25-30K ITA's left for FSW/FST/CEC class so we should have 10 more draws by December.)
• How much of PNP's actually go through the express entry?- Check 1st Link.
• ITA/Draw Size in future should depends on Number of applications received (Post-ITA) so far against Quota Left for category.
• Also when CRS goes down, number of dependents per application should also go up i guess.
• These are my observations which can be wrong as well. I am not an expert out here.
• I believe First 6 months are more important in terms of CRS going down with More ITA's and Others 6 can be managed as per In-flow of Application received in 7-8 Months.
• Sorry I scored only 6.5 in writing so forgive me if you don't understand above points clearly.

On the web, I could see that for 100 ITA's, 85 ITA's are actually submitted and 3% is rejected. In summary, 83/100 ITA's are actually being materialized- Can you share link for this information.?

link:- https://www.cicnews.com/2017/07/express-entry-report-canada-day-special-review-2017-so-far-079282.html

 

[jagan4u]

• What is the yearly quota/number for express entry? (http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-plan-2017.html)
• Does the target numbers includes the principal applicant + participants? -don't know. If so, is there any clarity on what is the proportional count to be considered on a single ITA?- I have not seen any report but when you start loosing points after 29 that means you're still young and either single or married and with or without Kids. (2016 Share for different categories from total issued ITA's - PNP-25%, FSW-25%, CEC- 45%, TRADERS-5%) (so CEC applicants are mostly young graduates or what.??) Now all files are entering through EE only so % can change in 2017. (FSW % Should go up as there're less back-logs to clear now and with Increased ITA's)
• ITA ISSUED SO FAR- Around 67K. (IF PNP 25% (2016 Avg. On higher side) PNP-17-20K, 5% Rejection/- 4-5K, Meaning we still have 25-30K ITA's left for FSW/FST/CEC class so we should have 10 more draws by December.)
• How much of PNP's actually go through the express entry?- Check 1st Link.
• ITA/Draw Size in future should depends on Number of applications received (Post-ITA) so far against Quota Left for category.
• Also when CRS goes down, number of dependents per application should also go up i guess.
• These are my observations which can be wrong as well. I am not an expert out here.
• I believe First 6 months are more important in terms of CRS going down with More ITA's and Others 6 can be managed as per In-flow of Application received in 7-8 Months.
• Sorry I scored only 6.5 in writing so forgive me if you don't understand above points clearly.

On the web, I could see that for 100 ITA's, 85 ITA's are actually submitted and 3% is rejected. In summary, 83/100 ITA's are actually being materialized- Can you share link for this information.?

link:- https://www.cicnews.com/2017/07/express-entry-report-canada-day-special-review-2017-so-far-079282.html

Good one !!! considering you didn't take time till Monday to respond...hahaha...great research for a Saturday night mate !!! Writing skills matter only for IELTS... not in ROH...here, just the message matters and u delivered it in a platter... thumbs up !!

 

[moose17]

How long did the medical exam take? Did they draw any blood?

We got our meds done in the Midwest. It took just a little over an hour for the 3 of us despite booking 3 consecutive 45-minute appointments. We were the only ones at the office that afternoon so they multitasked, overlapping who was doing what to burn through all the steps. There was a blood draw with 2 tubes, though I was told one was a backup. Overall it was very simple and quick and we were very happy with the office.

 

[kidl920317]

Pretty good analysis , agree with you(almost).
My question is- if CIC wait for IELTS result before conducting any draws, what is the scenario?
Who decides when and how frequently the draws are conducted?
Suppose they wait for IELTS result for conducting the draw and then do back to back draw, what happens in that scenario?
How much the CRS score falls in that case?

Trying to understand the modus operandi of CIC and what are the triggering factors of conducting draw?

Any suggestions?
God bless us all...

That's a very good point, I'm having the same concern as you now. CIC is totally unpredictable now because they can even greatly change the draw size as they will. And I've made a calculation, and there's only around 10k quota left for this year, if the target is 75k as they posted at the start of this year. They may even do one draw per month if they want. So I've been quite tensed even I'm siting @434 now, was only a point less than last draw. :\

 

[dna211]

For CEC, do they ask for offer letter or just the reference letter, once you get ita?

 

[Grewal222]

How long did the medical exam take? Did they draw any blood?

I

During the PR processing, CIC can give you blood pressure, heart attack, stress, headache...the list goes on =)) so you need to be always positive all the time

 

[Lala1234]

Once your Notification of Interest (NOI) from Ontario expires, you can recreate your profile and wait to be invited again. However, when you'll be invited again depends on the remaining quota for this year.

Good luck.

Thanks for your reply

 

[tjsecondtry]

Hope so ......
so you're likely to be there on PR urself too...that way check out what are the options on ur course fees...just in case you are able to land as a PR, then u stand a chance at much reduced fees and probably a partial refund...
so keep ur docs all ready...24hrs from ita u should file eAPR

Unless Ontario opens up ICT again, we are still a long way from ITA. But the docs are ready, just in case. And yes, the tuition would drop dramatically.

I'll arrive on a student visa, and persevere until we get an ITA and PR. It might be 2 more years. But we aren't giving up.

Thanks for your encouragement.

 

[trumprefugee]

Errr ... well! I just noticed that someone created a T-shirt in my name

http://movingtocanadasurvivalguide.com/

 

[lino82]

Unless Ontario opens up ICT again, we are still a long way from ITA. But the docs are ready, just in case. And yes, the tuition would drop dramatically.

I'll arrive on a student visa, and persevere until we get an ITA and PR. It might be 2 more years. But we aren't giving up.

Thanks for your encouragement.

where there's will,there's always a way...
& I'm sure your wait won't be that long...

 

[lino82]

Errr ... well! I just noticed that someone created a T-shirt in my name

http://movingtocanadasurvivalguide.com/

But I'm bit confused which part of it belongs to you ....Trump or Refugee ...
nevertheless, file a notice seeking royalty...& share with ROH 50% of the earnings
we will give testimony at court hearing

 

[Ascent]

Bonjour les bonnes personnes de Ray of Hope

Done with another IELTS yesterday, hope this time I hit the nail right and may the examiner be sympathetic.Everyone pray for me.

I hope every one is in best of spirit and things are fine at everyone's end including people who are impacted by IRMA.

 

[harman_778]

• What is the yearly quota/number for express entry? (http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-plan-2017.html)
• Does the target numbers includes the principal applicant + participants? -don't know. If so, is there any clarity on what is the proportional count to be considered on a single ITA?- I have not seen any report but when you start loosing points after 29 that means you're still young and either single or married and with or without Kids. (2016 Share for different categories from total issued ITA's - PNP-25%, FSW-25%, CEC- 45%, TRADERS-5%) (so CEC applicants are mostly young graduates or what.??) Now all files are entering through EE only so % can change in 2017. (FSW % Should go up as there're less back-logs to clear now and with Increased ITA's)
• ITA ISSUED SO FAR- Around 67K. (IF PNP 25% (2016 Avg. On higher side) PNP-17-20K, 5% Rejection/- 4-5K, Meaning we still have 25-30K ITA's left for FSW/FST/CEC class so we should have 10 more draws by December.)
• How much of PNP's actually go through the express entry?- Check 1st Link.
• ITA/Draw Size in future should depends on Number of applications received (Post-ITA) so far against Quota Left for category.
• Also when CRS goes down, number of dependents per application should also go up i guess.
• These are my observations which can be wrong as well. I am not an expert out here.
• I believe First 6 months are more important in terms of CRS going down with More ITA's and Others 6 can be managed as per In-flow of Application received in 7-8 Months.
• Sorry I scored only 6.5 in writing so forgive me if you don't understand above points clearly.

On the web, I could see that for 100 ITA's, 85 ITA's are actually submitted and 3% is rejected. In summary, 83/100 ITA's are actually being materialized- Can you share link for this information.?

link:- https://www.cicnews.com/2017/07/express-entry-report-canada-day-special-review-2017-so-far-079282.html

My response to the above observations made by you is as follows :-

• The quota that CIC has for express entry is not as per the No of ITA's issued but the actual applicants admitted in an year
• As per the express entry report issued this year for 2016 , it showed that for every ITA issued 1.3 times applicants got admitted
• This figure would be a lot higher for 2017 , the reason being , last year the scores stayed above 470 odd right through the year which meant that most people who got an ITA were single applicants or people in their twenties with no kids
• This year we saw the scores going down to as low as 413 which meant that lotsa familes or older people with families & kids got an ITA hence my take is that for every ITA issued in 2017 atleast 1.8-2.5 applicants would have got admitted in 2017
• With not much quota left , the the decreasing ITA trend might just continue until mid november wherein they might get a better idea of how many ITA's are still left to be given if at all there is a higher ITA rejection rate or acceptance rate
• The no of people in the entire express entry pool is only 58k with 400-450 category having only 12k people which basically means that if they continue inviting 3800 people in every draw then they might not have many candidates left in the pool for 2018 quota
• Lastly the 1st half of the year in 2017 showed that CRS scores was decided & kept reducing based on the number of ITA's issued hence the runrate of 3800 ITA's stayed static in each draw . However the past 2 months has shown that they have reversed the strategy wherein now the CRS score they want to fix every fornight decides the number of ITA's to be issued

 

[trumprefugee]

But I'm bit confused which part of it belongs to you ....Trump or Refugee ...
nevertheless, file a notice seeking royalty...& share with ROH 50% of the earnings
we will give testimony at court hearing

Both! That's why it's one word for me trumprefugee!

Yeah, you all help me get a trademark, and we'll use the earnings to fund our new business in Canada. Next door to the international fusion restaurant we previously discussed should be a souvenir shop with T-shirts and mugs.