Ray of Hope - 70th Draw!

[hegdvin]

I have come up with the prediction for the 70th draw.

If it happens on:
Aug 16 - CRS 426 - ITAs 3000
Aug 17 - CRS 427 - ITAs 3000
Aug 18 - CRS 428 - ITAs 3000

The variance in the above calculation is +/- 1 CRS.

Please find below the CRS cut off on each date (in case the number of ITAs issued is more/less than 3000):

What is your prediction for next Wednesday, 23rd August ? Your predictions have been pretty accurate.

 

[Acid]

I believe next draw whenever it happens will pretty much tell us about the rest of the year. We can expect a lot of candidates finally receiving their PNPs, which of course will push the CRS towards a higher side. I believe even in this case and with bi-weekly draws, CRS cut off should remain around 440 and with an odd extra draw in between, it may fall drastically. I have no data to support, just intuition and I also believe that as long as current liberal government stays in office, quotas for next years will remain on higher side. It is very important that we hang in there and don't lose hope. Those who are in 410 range, I honestly and genuinely feel, they have a chance in 2018, if not in 2017.

 

[ultimateenergy]

In your answer to "has x applied to IRCC before"... remember it includes all kinds of applications "visa, study or work permits".. if you applied before, then enter "yes" and ur uci number...

Ielts TRF number is the combination of numbers and letters at the down right side of the report... it has letters of the test center and your candidate number..

The wes report number is at the top right written as "ECA#" on ur report...

Romove work experience not related to ur main occupation and for which you do not claim points.. u can drop it later in personal history...

If u are open to receiving PNP offers.. choose all territories and provinces... then yes yes yes for questions..

Remember... if u receive an ITA.. it will be hard to do changes to your profile as any change will require detailed explanation and would increase the chances of rejecting your application..

ITA is a chance for you to prove all the details you claimed in your EE profile... any change would be bad to your application and this is different from updates (like getting a baby)...

Thanks so much for the comment! Because of you I just corrected an error on my application. I have previously applied for a study permit, but my application was not accepted due to insufficient funding. Since the application was not accepted and I was not refused a visa I did not mention it. Now I corrected it and included the UCI number I've been issued 3 years ago.

 

[DBOR]

Thanks so much for the comment! Because of you I just corrected an error on my application. I have previously applied for a study permit, but my application was not accepted due to insufficient funding. Since the application was not accepted and I was not refused a visa I did not mention it. Now I corrected it and included the UCI number I've been issued 3 years ago.

You're welcome mate ... im very happy that it helped you.. it could have been understood as misrepresentation by the officer if he is not an easy-going one..

 

[Dev_Canada]

What can be the expected cut off for the next draw?

 

[ultimateenergy]

You're welcome mate ... im very happy that it helped you.. it could have been understood as misrepresentation by the officer if he is not an easy-going one..

Yes, I also think that they would look at it as misrepresentation. You saved me from a tragedy Good they didn't have a draw yesterday! Now, I'm just hesitating about your comment on including only the work experience you claim points for. See in my case I included several NOC codes, since they all are interrelated and connected with my current NOC code. I mean that experience in other NOC codes helps me do my job well in my current NOC code. I've got all the references, except for one (where the company just issued me a letter stating my salary and position and no info on job duties).

 

[pessacanada]

I strongly believe that there are a lot of draws to come, and hopefully there would be back-to-back draws
When summer time is over, all CIC agents continue their working schedule normally without a big pause until Christmas holiday, so stay hopeful for increasing ITA issuance.
May 2018 be a LANDING year for all of us here! Everyone who is trying hard, supporting and helping each other deserve not only an ITA but, I certainly say, also a PR card. Let's stay positive hopeful!

PS: Do not forget about Thursday and Friday gifts by CIC (as you know CIC is unpredictable), so REFRESH party is not over for me, I'm just stretching my fingers and doing some exercices right now

 

[Nabs17]

A quick question,
EE profile asks for your spouse details and whether they will accompany you to Canada. However no similar details are asked regarding children. The only question where you can tell them about them is the number of dependants.
Is there a section where we have to give their details or is it understood that all dependants will get the PR with the principal applicant ?

 

[harman_778]

My analysis & prediction for next draw says that the scores wouldnt drop much if the draw were to happen on 23rd Aug 2017.

The scores might drop by 1 or 2 points & might be in the range of 431-432 . The reason for that is because 1000 plus candidates with scores of 440 or more have been getting added every week which takes up almost two third of the total draw pool hence leaving only 800-1000 people being picked up from the existing pool . In addition to this , 34 people are getting added every day ( 430-440 category) which translates into another 500 people getting added in 2 weeks time from the 430-440 category . Hence unless the no of ITA's are increased back to 3800 levels which lead to almost 1800 people being picked up from the existing pool ( over & above the 2000 which get added every 2 weeks with scores of 440 plus ) we will not see a drop of more than 1-2 points whenever a bi weekly draw happens.

Having said that , i do strongly believe that they might throw in an occassional weekly draw in between which could happen in Sep or Oct to do a one time clean up excercise .

Based on the above , chances are that scores would hover around the 415-420 levels by Dec 2017 & perhaps once the new quota for 2018 is allocated & we get back to draws of 3800 every 2 weeks then the scores would fall below 400 which could be around Feb-March 2018

PLease let me know how everyone feels about the analysis ....Happy to get your feedback as well on the same

 

[Wacky1.nash]

I really still cannot comprehend why did CIC issues that massive number of invitations in April and May. Of course I am happy for people who got invitations during that period, don't get me wrong, but honestly I could not find the logic behind that severe necessity to issue back to back draws with huge number of invitations that reached almost 3900 in one draw! I was thinking thoroughly about this, my only and simple explanation is that they were catching up with something and they had to cover a targeted quota.

This implies directly that the beginning/ end of a year to us, is completly different than what CIC considers. Think about it carefully, issuing huge number of invitations over 5 rounds in two months, after which they made only two draws in two months with much less invitations. For me this says a lot of things. I am a person who is logical and always trying to understand and find explanations.

Therefore, this is my conclusion:

• in order to target a number of immigrant in a certain year, you have to issue its latest invitations 5-7 months earlier, right? This is the average processing time for an express entry candidate. So, let's say I had already targeted a number of immigrants for 2017, but realized from the number of accepted invitations when I reached the latest month to take an action (April/ May 2017) that I'm far away from my target, what shall I do? Exactly what CIC did, sending enourmous amount of invitations in a short period to catch up with my plan (considering that starting from June, I have to send invitations for people who will arrive in 2018). Then after sending, I have to stop a bit, review my target, evaluate the process of the previous year, give my employees their vacations (because it's summer and they don't really enjoy the weather except in these days) relax and plan for the next year, and make two draws only to fill up missing numbers and get into the new year wisely, because I don't want the same rush that happened in April and May again. This is the summary of June and July.

Now, I'm in August, I will look back to the previous year (which was the first year to have such a big target) and observe the trends to balance the pool throughout the year.

Currently, I'm more able to make two-weeks draw with almost same number of invitations every round, knowing to a good extent what that will lead me to in terms of achieving my target for 2018.

The previous scenario was the only thing tgst give me explanation on how CIC acted over the last 4 months, I'm not saying it must be true, but it puts a logic behind things.

Discussions and other points of view are welcomed

Thank you!

I came to the same conclusion a couple of weeks ago. I think you explained it pretty well.

 

[Acid]

My analysis & prediction for next draw says that the scores wouldnt drop much if the draw were to happen on 23rd Aug 2017.

The scores might drop by 1 or 2 points & might be in the range of 431-432 . The reason for that is because 1000 plus candidates with scores of 440 or more have been getting added every week which takes up almost two third of the total draw pool hence leaving only 800-1000 people being picked up from the existing pool . In addition to this , 34 people are getting added every day ( 430-440 category) which translates into another 500 people getting added in 2 weeks time from the 430-440 category . Hence unless the no of ITA's are increased back to 3800 levels which lead to almost 1800 people being picked up from the existing pool ( over & above the 2000 which get added every 2 weeks with scores of 440 plus ) we will not see a drop of more than 1-2 points whenever a bi weekly draw happens.

Having said that , i do strongly believe that they might throw in an occassional weekly draw in between which could happen in Sep or Oct to do a one time clean up excercise .

Based on the above , chances are that scores would hover around the 415-420 levels by Dec 2017 & perhaps once the new quota for 2018 is allocated & we get back to draws of 3800 every 2 weeks then the scores would fall below 400 which could be around Feb-March 2018

PLease let me know how everyone feels about the analysis ....Happy to get your feedback as well on the same

Your predictions seem quite realistic, my only concern is more and more candidates receiving PNPs, as Ontario will issue nominations to most of the applicants before the end of the year.

 

[canadadreamer123]

I

My analysis & prediction for next draw says that the scores wouldnt drop much if the draw were to happen on 23rd Aug 2017.

The scores might drop by 1 or 2 points & might be in the range of 431-432 . The reason for that is because 1000 plus candidates with scores of 440 or more have been getting added every week which takes up almost two third of the total draw pool hence leaving only 800-1000 people being picked up from the existing pool . In addition to this , 34 people are getting added every day ( 430-440 category) which translates into another 500 people getting added in 2 weeks time from the 430-440 category . Hence unless the no of ITA's are increased back to 3800 levels which lead to almost 1800 people being picked up from the existing pool ( over & above the 2000 which get added every 2 weeks with scores of 440 plus ) we will not see a drop of more than 1-2 points whenever a bi weekly draw happens.

Having said that , i do strongly believe that they might throw in an occassional weekly draw in between which could happen in Sep or Oct to do a one time clean up excercise .

Based on the above , chances are that scores would hover around the 415-420 levels by Dec 2017 & perhaps once the new quota for 2018 is allocated & we get back to draws of 3800 every 2 weeks then the scores would fall below 400 which could be around Feb-March 2018

PLease let me know how everyone feels about the analysis ....Happy to get your feedback as well on the same

I too have received NOI on 12th april. Dint apply for it. Why do u say wasted? "Ontario NOI Recd ( & wasted ) - 12th April 2017".
Its valid till October 12th. I am hoping the PNP stream will open by then.

 

[andieangel]

Your predictions seem quite realistic, my only concern is more and more candidates receiving PNPs, as Ontario will issue nominations to most of the applicants before the end of the year.

PNP has their own qouta, not touching FSW qouta.

 

[Jojolet]

In your answer to "has x applied to IRCC before"... remember it includes all kinds of applications "visa, study or work permits".. if you applied before, then enter "yes" and ur uci number...

Ielts TRF number is the combination of numbers and letters at the down right side of the report... it has letters of the test center and your candidate number..

The wes report number is at the top right written as "ECA#" on ur report...

Romove work experience not related to ur main occupation and for which you do not claim points.. u can drop it later in personal history...

If u are open to receiving PNP offers.. choose all territories and provinces... then yes yes yes for questions..

Remember... if u receive an ITA.. it will be hard to do changes to your profile as any change will require detailed explanation and would increase the chances of rejecting your application..

ITA is a chance for you to prove all the details you claimed in your EE profile... any change would be bad to your application and this is different from updates (like getting a baby)...

Ok so when I started with my new ee profile after the expiration of the initial one, I noticed mu spouse and I now have UCI numbers, does that mean my response to the question should have been "Yes"? Pls respond urgently.

 

[andieangel]

My analysis & prediction for next draw says that the scores wouldnt drop much if the draw were to happen on 23rd Aug 2017.

The scores might drop by 1 or 2 points & might be in the range of 431-432 . The reason for that is because 1000 plus candidates with scores of 440 or more have been getting added every week which takes up almost two third of the total draw pool hence leaving only 800-1000 people being picked up from the existing pool . In addition to this , 34 people are getting added every day ( 430-440 category) which translates into another 500 people getting added in 2 weeks time from the 430-440 category . Hence unless the no of ITA's are increased back to 3800 levels which lead to almost 1800 people being picked up from the existing pool ( over & above the 2000 which get added every 2 weeks with scores of 440 plus ) we will not see a drop of more than 1-2 points whenever a bi weekly draw happens.

Having said that , i do strongly believe that they might throw in an occassional weekly draw in between which could happen in Sep or Oct to do a one time clean up excercise .

Based on the above , chances are that scores would hover around the 415-420 levels by Dec 2017 & perhaps once the new quota for 2018 is allocated & we get back to draws of 3800 every 2 weeks then the scores would fall below 400 which could be around Feb-March 2018

PLease let me know how everyone feels about the analysis ....Happy to get your feedback as well on the same

Thank you for your analysis, however I disagree and strongly believe that 400 is realistic till end of this year.