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Ray of Hope - 69th Draw

GKB1990

Member
Jun 16, 2017
18
1
Sorry I will repeat, while creating my ee profile , I noted my first name full name family name in continuence. Why it is so ? have i entered some thing worong or it happens with every one. pl help.
 

harman_778

Star Member
Oct 19, 2016
194
405
Hmmm...

If I am reading this right

9th August - 433
16th August - 438
30th August - 435

For the draw on 16th August (just one week from the last), why do you predict the CRS cut off to go up? Shouldn't it go down?
My assumptions are all based on Bi weekly draw . Only exception to this rule would be for August . However if we do get lucky & get a draw on 9th Aug then this entire equation would change
 

Wacky1.nash

Hero Member
Jul 18, 2017
624
685
Singapore
if in any month we do get a draw in consecutive weeks then this analysis wont stand . Hence the prediction for bi weekly draws . ignore the 9th aug prediction
OK makes sense now.

I think your prediction is way too conservative though. You are predicting a decrease of only 3 points even though the spacing between draws is just 2 weeks... I think from rough extrapolation from past data the difference would atleast be about 5 to 6 points? Granted that it might be 4 to 5 as we get to the 420s, due to larger number of applicants in that CRS range.

I am also hoping for larger draws :)
 

Onayimi

Star Member
Mar 3, 2017
63
42
OK makes sense now.

I think your prediction is way too conservative though. You are predicting a decrease of only 3 points even though the spacing between draws is just 2 weeks... I think from rough extrapolation from past data the difference would atleast be about 5 to 6 points? Granted that it might be 4 to 5 as we get to the 420s, due to larger number of applicants in that CRS range.

I am also hoping for larger draws :)
His prediction seems pretty realistic to me because of the large number of new applicants with very high CRS getting in the pool daily.
 

harman_778

Star Member
Oct 19, 2016
194
405
OK makes sense now.

I think your prediction is way too conservative though. You are predicting a decrease of only 3 points even though the spacing between draws is just 2 weeks... I think from rough extrapolation from past data the difference would atleast be about 5 to 6 points? Granted that it might be 4 to 5 as we get to the 420s, due to larger number of applicants in that CRS range.

I am also hoping for larger draws :)
I hope what you saying comes true but we are seeing new people being added to the pool in the 430-440 category ( 28 per day ) , 420-430 category ( 20 per day ) , 440 & above ( 165 people per day ) . Entire dynamics of the pool is ais but the only issue is that the no of ITA's issued has gone down from 3800 to 3200
 

Nabs17

Star Member
Aug 3, 2017
168
221
A little too optimistic,eh? :p
The assumption is based on the last draw. 1400 new entrants above CRS 440 are added every fortnight. The remainder (3200 - 1400) = 1800 will be used up by CRS < 440. Given the CRS 431-440 range will have 2244+445 = 2,689, the cutoff is estimated at CRS 434.
 
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charanysg

Member
Aug 2, 2017
19
12
34
Ajax
Category........
FSW
AOR Received.
24-08-2017
LANDED..........
05-03-2018
My prediction , if the draw happens on 9th Aug is 433 & if it happens on 16th it would be 438 so it would have gone down by 3 points from the last draw
If the draw happens on 9th august, the CRS will be 433 and if it happens on aug 16th - crs would be 437.
But if it happens this week and the next week, the CRS wont rise up at any cost.
 

harman_778

Star Member
Oct 19, 2016
194
405
The assumption is based on the last draw. 1400 new entrants above CRS 440 are added every fortnight. The remainder (3200 - 1400) = 1800 will be used up by CRS < 440. Given the CRS 431-440 range will have 2244+445 = 2,689, the cutoff is estimated at CRS 434.
your analysis is wrong...there were 3263 new applicants with scores above 440 & above which got added to the pool in 3 weeks translating into 1100 per week .Hence , if they come out with a draw for 3200 people 2200 would be new entrants hence only 1000 people from the existing pool would get picked up every 2 weeks
 

Nabs17

Star Member
Aug 3, 2017
168
221
your analysis is wrong...there were 3263 new applicants with scores above 440 & above which got added to the pool in 3 weeks translating into 1100 per week .Hence , if they come out with a draw for 3200 people 2200 would be new entrants hence only 1000 people from the existing pool would get picked up every 2 weeks
Agreed. I stand corrected. So by this calculation, we are looking at a 437 cuttoff if draw takes place on 16th.
 

harman_778

Star Member
Oct 19, 2016
194
405
Agreed. I stand corrected. So by this calculation, we are looking at a 437 cuttoff if draw takes place on 16th.
yep ...437-438 would be the range unless CIC decides to surprise us all with a draw on 9th & then the Cut off could drop drastically to 432-433
 
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