Ray of Hope - 69th Draw

[tjsecondtry]

Hmmm. Fees isn't the issue. It's worth taking a chance. Seeing the current scenario, seems like CIC doesn't want to go beyond 440. The sudden rush after 27 July of people above 440 is surprising. Seems like ontario gave nominations to many people because otherwise we have never seen such a hike suddenly.

And may be that's why the draw didn't happen last week because the number above 440 wasn't too high.

Or maybe it's just that a bunch of the outstanding ITAs started to be accepted, so they think smaller draws will complete the quota. But whatever their reason, I agree that it's worth the effort if you can get a few more points.

 

[mqamar1994]

Thank you. At my advanced age, it's going to take that and probably TEF too. But we're determined

I remember you are at 384. A Masters degree plus points for canadian eductaion should take you well over 400. I dont think you will lose points because of anything else. The scores will come down by that time hopefully for you to receive ITA or else you have OINP

And also Masters PNP Stream for Ontario

 

[CA_India]

I hope we see another draw in two weeks time. I believe that's a realistic expectation.

 

[qwerty69]

Hey guys,

I just updated my calculations with today's draw. Some things to consider since the last draw:

• Overall, the rate of new profiles per day decreased by ~5%
• The rate of new profiles over 600 increased by 15%. This was expected, as more people are taking that route after the increase in points (and confirmed by the pause of the OINP due to increased backlog).
• The rate of new profiles for 451-600 considerably decreased. More than 20%.
• Huuuuuge increase in the rate of new profiles for 441-450. The rate was more than double.
• The rate for the rest of the ranges over 400 stayed about the same.

Considering the new rates and the 3,200 ITAs issued, these are my projections:

• If we have a draw on August 9: ~3,200 ITAs @ 432 +/- 1
• If we have a draw on August 16: ~3,200 ITAs @ 436 +/- 2
• If we have a draw on August 23 (oh God, please no): ~3,200 ITAs @ 440 +/- 4

Now considering biweekly draws for the rest of the year with 3,200 ITAs:

• The score should go below 430 on September 13
• The score should go below 420 on December 6. Sorry guys, this is not a linear progression unless some variables change (More ITAs, back to back draws, decreased rate of new profiles over 430).
• The score shouldn't drop below 410 this year. I say this because I expect something similar to what happened this year on 2018, or the variables I mentioned change. If that doesn't happen, the score won't reach 410 for a very long time.

 

[siju22]

Hey guys,

I just updated my calculations with today's draw. Some things to consider since the last draw:

• Overall, the rate of new profiles per day decreased by ~5%
• The rate of new profiles over 600 increased by 15%. This was expected, as more people are taking that route after the increase in points (and confirmed by the pause of the OINP due to increased backlog).
• The rate of new profiles for 451-600 considerably decreased. More than 20%.
• Huuuuuge increase in the rate of new profiles for 441-450. The rate was more than double.
• The rate for the rest of the ranges over 400 stayed about the same.

Considering the new rates and the 3,200 ITAs issued, these are my projections:

• If we have a draw on August 9: ~3,200 ITAs @ 432 +/- 1
• If we have a draw on August 16: ~3,200 ITAs @ 436 +/- 2
• If we have a draw on August 23 (oh God, please no): ~3,200 ITAs @ 440 +/- 4

Now considering biweekly draws for the rest of the year with 3,200 ITAs:

• The score should go below 430 on September 13
• The score should go below 420 on December 6. Sorry guys, this is not a linear progression unless some variables change (More ITAs, back to back draws, decreased rate of new profiles over 430).
• The score shouldn't drop below 410 this year. I say this because I expect something similar to what happened this year on 2018, or the variables I mentioned change. If that doesn't happen, the score won't reach 410 for a very long time.

gud analysis mate. not an easy calculation. To understand better, is there a possibility in the coming draws that they will consider specific streams only or it will be general?

 

[Sachinkumar]

I am at 434, now started a process of ECA of my wife's qualifications. Hope after that 8 or 9 points will be added.

 

[tjsecondtry]

I remember you are at 384. A Masters degree plus points for canadian eductaion should take you well over 400. I dont think you will lose points because of anything else. The scores will come down by that time hopefully for you to receive ITA or else you have OINP

And also Masters PNP Stream for Ontario

The part that is a leap of faith is that nothing will change in a way that impacts me negatively. I already have foreign master's points, so the canadian master's will only get me to 414. But as long as Ontario sticks at 400, that should be enough. But I need to at least get bare minimum TEF to make the 67 points. 1 year master's won't help for that :-(

 

[tjsecondtry]

I hope we see another draw in two weeks time. I believe that's a realistic expectation.

I think we'll know in 2 weeks whether we should consider 2 or 3 weeks as the current "typical"

 

[tjsecondtry]

I am at 434, now started a process of ECA of my wife's qualifications. Hope after that 8 or 9 points will be added.

That should lock you in if it doesn't drop enough while you are waiting. Smart move.

 

[Sachinkumar]

That should lock you in if it doesn't drop enough while you are waiting. Smart move.

Can you suggest how much time WES take to provide ECA! I know that typically it takes 20 business days; however, many told that due to heavy rush they might take one or two months. Did anyone here got their WES report recently in 20 days timeframe?

 

[GavinSouthAfrica]

Can you suggest how much time WES take to provide ECA! I know that typically it takes 20 business days; however, many told that due to heavy rush they might take one or two months. Did anyone here got their WES report recently in 20 days timeframe?

My WES fell into the 20 day mark , proper timeline in my signature.

I think the only cause for delay is if your university doesn't send their transcripts quickly

 

[bluewaters87]

Hello People and friends,

People i got nominated by OINP yesterday(02/08/2017) at 10:18 am ottawa time and immediately accepted by 10:20am and the CRS score got updated to 995.
Draw happenned at 1:32 PM ottawa time and the cut off time in Ministerial Instructions says that 12:24 UTC .
Do u think i will get ITA ?

 

[tjsecondtry]

Hello People and friends,

People i got nominated by OINP yesterday(02/08/2017) at 10:18 am ottawa time and immediately accepted by 10:20am and the CRS score got updated to 995.
Draw happenned at 1:32 PM ottawa time and the cut off time in Ministerial Instructions says that 12:24 UTC .
Do u think i will get ITA ?

I think 12:24 UTC is 8:24 Ottawa. But you will get it in the next draw

 

[mqamar1994]

The part that is a leap of faith is that nothing will change in a way that impacts me negatively. I already have foreign master's points, so the canadian master's will only get me to 414. But as long as Ontario sticks at 400, that should be enough. But I need to at least get bare minimum TEF to make the 67 points. 1 year master's won't help for that :-(

All the degrees and enormous experience you have will get you a job offer too

 

[GavinSouthAfrica]

Hello People and friends,

People i got nominated by OINP yesterday(02/08/2017) at 10:18 am ottawa time and immediately accepted by 10:20am and the CRS score got updated to 995.
Draw happenned at 1:32 PM ottawa time and the cut off time in Ministerial Instructions says that 12:24 UTC .
Do u think i will get ITA ?

I heard the draw happened at around 8:30am, so you just missed it.

But you're obviously in at the next one, maybe go do your medicals now so there is no delay afterwards?