Well, I for one appreciate your opinion...Let me start out by remind everyone that because of my age/low score, I've got more reason to hope that the score drops than almost everyone here. But I need to be realistic to make appropriate long term plans to improve my maxed out score. So here are my thoughts on the next draw.
I didn't do my own predictions because it appears that several people are using very similar methodology to calculate the rate of new entrants into the pool. It's the rate of new entrants over the last cut off and the rate between the last cut-off and the projected new cut-off that are having most effect on the cut-off right now.
With that said, the folks that are looking at those rates are predicting a much smaller drop than those who say "last time it dropped x points from 440." When you also factor in the draws have been for roughly 500 fewer ITAs in the last two draws, it also suggests a much smaller drop. Based on the other folks analysis, I'm guessing the CRS will be 436 unless the number of ITAs increases again.
I know these thoughts won't make me any friends, but I don't want people to be crushed when the score doesn't drop as much as they think it should.
My master's in Toronto starts in January. I need to work harder on the French. I will get my score up no matter how long it takes. The only good side about being old is that they can't subtract any more points on my birthday, lol.
All the best with your masters, and hope you will get your PR before you get there.