Ray of Hope 68th Draw

[LalluBhaiya]

Hello Guys, I need small clarification regarding EE profile under section - Application/profile details -> Provinces and territories of interest.

As per Ontario application guide, they encourage us to select either "Ontario" or "All Provinces and Territories" to indicate our interest in immigrating to Ontario. When I select "All Provinces and Territories" checkbox, it must automatically select all the provinces check box but unfortunately that's not happening. I am not sure if that has any impact on my profile for not getting NOI from Ontario for HCP stream.

I also observed that when I select All option, it gives me a declaration for British Columbia and Ontario. That somehow gives me a relief that it actually selects all the provinces in the background but does not reflect so on the screen.

Please correct me if I am wrong or suggest if I should select Ontario deliberately.

Thanks.

I am confused after reading your post. I applied for federal and am pretty sure that there was no option for "all provinces", so I chose 'ontario' though I am applying for federal (and never applied for provincial) because I saw some posts saying it is just a field does not make a difference which province you choose, did I do something wrong? plz reply urgently, I am getting anxious seeing this post.

 

[vickeysaw]

So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,

This is my analysis.


601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)

Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.

So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get

601-1200 199
451-600 764
441-450 200
431-440 2070

Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs

If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution

601-1200 400
451-600 1400
441-450 500
431-440 2550

Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs


Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.

PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon.

I completely agree with this analysis. My independent calculations suggest similar numbers.

 

[iamxty]

Of course you are! Our friend @xibalban have started this Yukon party thing, he should be here... I miss him! Hope he's ok!

Don't summon the devil! Hahaha just kidding I miss him too!
Our dear friend @xibalban is ok. He may be here on Wednesday

 

[LalluBhaiya]

I am confused after reading your post. I applied for federal and am pretty sure that there was no option for "all provinces", so I chose 'ontario' though I am applying for federal (and never applied for provincial) because I saw some posts saying it is just a field does not make a difference which province you choose, did I do something wrong? plz reply urgently, I am getting anxious seeing this post.

anybody?

 

[mytimet]

GOT fans winter is here...heart pounding

 

[Msolanki]

How dare you??? Kidding! Great analysis, you're invited to Yukon party! But you have to bring drinks!

Can u elaborate more on Yukon party, so that I can register my participation

 

[iamxty]

Can u elaborate more on Yukon party, so that I can register my participation

It is open to everyone! However, we are still looking for our official mascot, will you volunteer as one?

 

[sacmanitin]

So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,

This is my analysis.


601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)

Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.

So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get

601-1200 199
451-600 764
441-450 200
431-440 2070

Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs

If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution

601-1200 400
451-600 1400
441-450 500
431-440 2550

Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs


Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.

PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon.

This is good work ..I calculated a similar number with ~437 cutoff at 3029 ITA .. so our different assumption is boiling down to same . Good luck for these numbers to get better for everyone's benefit .

 

[SazzadHN]

So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,

This is my analysis.


601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)

Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.

So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get

601-1200 199
451-600 764
441-450 200
431-440 2070

Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs

If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution

601-1200 400
451-600 1400
441-450 500
431-440 2550

Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs


Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.

PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon.

So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,

This is my analysis.


601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)

Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.

So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get

601-1200 199
451-600 764
441-450 200
431-440 2070

Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs

If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution

601-1200 400
451-600 1400
441-450 500
431-440 2550

Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs


Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.

PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon.

Nice analysis - praying so that this becomes true!

 

[trumprefugee]

Guyssss!!! I had a dream last night, there was a draw with cut off 405!!! I was thrilled with joy! Then I woke up!

Oh I hate waking up from such a good dream! I don't see why people wish you "sweet dreams" because it's painful to wake up from a sweet dream. A few months before the US presidential election last year, I had a terrible nightmare that Trump won the election ... and while it was nice to wake up from it, it eventually came true!! Here's to hoping your wonderful dream will come true later this year!

 

[Globetrotter2017]

I think you did a great job, I would like to see more positive outcome, let's say next draw below 430, but we just have to wait and see!

Could I say I love ya or would that fall into adultery?

On a serious note, thanks Andie and I wish you the very best.

I truly hope and pray that we all get to Canada sooner than later.

God bless.

 

[Globetrotter2017]

This is good work ..I calculated a similar number with ~437 cutoff at 3029 ITA .. so our different assumption is boiling down to same . Good luck for these numbers to get better for everyone's benefit .

Thanks mate! I know how you got 3029 but I rounded it up to 3200 for 437.

 

[sa83]

This is good work ..I calculated a similar number with ~437 cutoff at 3029 ITA .. so our different assumption is boiling down to same . Good luck for these numbers to get better for everyone's benefit .

sad for me as i am @ 436...

 

[Aryaesh]

Is Ontario still issuing nominations ?
if yes, will they inflate the score for the next draw?

 

[affy1985]

I am confused after reading your post. I applied for federal and am pretty sure that there was no option for "all provinces", so I chose 'ontario' though I am applying for federal (and never applied for provincial) because I saw some posts saying it is just a field does not make a difference which province you choose, did I do something wrong? plz reply urgently, I am getting anxious seeing this post.

Dear All,

This is Affy85...

Good morning and prayers that all of us land in Canada...This is going to be a big family of ours.

I have been closely watching ROH thread sbut didnt quite get a chance to engage...So here I am...

First and foremost please visit this link :

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/provincial/apply-how-ee.asp

It says the following:
2. Get an Express Entry stream nomination (or have your nomination confirmed)


If you do not yet have an Express Entry stream nomination
If you are already in the Express Entry pool, and you wish to be considered for the PNP, there are two ways you can get a nomination under a province or territory’s Express Entry stream:


Apply to the province or territory directly
Visit a province or territory’s website to find out their criteria for their PNP Express Entry stream. If you are interested and you meet their requirements, submit an application to one of their Express Entry streams.

If a province or territory agrees to nominate you, you must:

1. Update your Express Entry profile to show that you have a nomination (or create a profile if you have not already – see step #1).
   1. Choose the province or territory from the drop-down menu. It will show up after you change the previous answer to “yes.”
2. Update your profile to show you are interested in that province or territory, if you have not already.
3. Contact the province or territory, outside of your account, and give them your:
   • Express Entry profile number
   • Job Seeker Validation Code
4. Wait for the province or territory to confirm your nomination with IRCC.
   • You will get a message in your account when the province or territory confirms your nomination. You will find this at the top of the Application/profile details page in your account.
5. Accept or reject (“do not accept”) the nomination in your account.
   • If the province or territory offers you a nomination through your account, you will have 30 calendar days to either accept or reject it. To do this, click either the “accept” or “do not accept” button in your account.
   • If you accept the nomination, the system will find that you meet the requirements for the PNP. You will get a letter (in PDF format) in your account that confirms your nomination. You will be awarded 600 additional points that will help you to quickly get invited to apply. The province or territory will contact you directly and send you a copy of your nomination certificate. (If you already got 600 points for a job offer, you will not get more points for a nomination. In either case, the additional points only apply once.)
   • If you reject or ignore the nomination, you will stay in the Express Entry pool. You may be invited to apply under any program that you have been found eligible for.

A province or territory finds your profile and contacts you through your account
Provinces and territories can search the pool of Express Entry profiles to find candidates to nominate. To be nominated when you are already in the Express Entry pool:

1. A province or territory searches the pool and finds your profile.
   • They may find you if you said you were interested in them when completing your profile, or if you said you are interested in “all provinces and territories.”
2. The province or territory sends a “notification of interest” letter to your account.
   • The letter tells you to contact the province or territory to discuss your options. This letter is not a nomination and does not guarantee you will be nominated.
3. If you want to be nominated by that province or territory, you must contact them directly and apply to their PNP Express Entry stream. (This process will happen between you and the province or territory – you will not use your account.)
   • The province or territory will assess your application.
   • You must give them your Job Seeker Validation Code.
4. If the province or territory approves your application, you will get a message in your account. It will ask you to accept or reject (“not accept”) the nomination.
   • If the province or territory offers you a nomination through your account, you will see it at the top of your Application/profile details page. You will have 30 calendar days to either accept or reject it. To do this, click either the “accept” or “not accept” button in your account.
   • If you accept the nomination, the system will find that you meet the requirements for the PNP. You will get a letter in your account that confirms your nomination. You will be awarded 600 additional points that will help you to quickly get invited to apply. The province or territory will contact you directly and send you a paper copy of your nomination certificate. (If you already got 600 points for a job offer, you will not get more points for a nomination. In either case, the additional points only apply once.)
   • If you reject or ignore the nomination, you will remain in the Express Entry pool. You may be invited to apply under any program that you have been found eligible for.

Note: You can get more than one notification of interest at a time, but can only have one nomination at a time. If you have an offer for nomination in your account, but want to be nominated by a different province or territory, you must reject the nomination (click the “not accept” button). Then the other province or territory can send you their nomination.

3. Get an invitation to apply for permanent residence (once you have accepted your nomination)
To apply for permanent residence under Express Entry, you must first be invited to apply. If we invite you to apply, you will get a message in your account. You can then apply online.

You have 90 days to submit your online application for permanent residence once you are invited to apply.

Note: When you accept a nomination, you are awarded 600 additional points in the Comprehensive Ranking System(CRS). This will help you get invited to apply.

4. Fill out your application
If you are invited to apply for permanent residence, you will receive a letter in your account that will tell you:

• which program you may apply to,
• how many points you were given,
• the deadline for submitting your application, and
• the next steps you should take.

You will then:

• fill out your online application
• upload your supporting documents, and
  • pay your application fees.

Note: Your application must be submitted electronically, through your account.

5. If the province or territory withdraws your nomination
If a province or territory withdraws your nomination before you are invited to apply for permanent residence, you must withdraw your profile from the Express Entry pool and submit a new profile.

If the province or territory withdraws your nomination after you are invited to apply for permanent residence, but before you submit your application, you must:

• decline the invitation, and
• withdraw your current profile and submit a new one.

If, in this case, you choose to apply for permanent residence anyway, we will refuse your application and your fees will not be refunded.

In either of these cases, if you do not follow the directions above, you could be found inadmissible. This means you could be banned from applying to come to Canada for any reason for five years.

This clearly states that if you click all provinces then they can send u NOI's thats it...U accept or not its upto U.And where is Quebec mentioned in first place.Your application gets rejected if u get nomination and then the province withdraws it and then u still apply for PR.Thats what it says...

I myself clicked all provinces and I got NOI from Ontario...But havent accepted it yet.I was all tensed after this message doing circles on ROH....Please guys dont scare all of us...If anyone has any more updates on this please do respond.

Regards,
Affy