andieangel
Champion Member
Hahaha! I live 12 hours drive from Dubrovnik! To see Dubrovnik you need to buy plane ticket directly to that city!When I come to croatia, which is very soon, please tell you husband to take me to Dubrovnik.
Ray of Hope 68th Draw
- Thread starter WaseemWasii
- Start date
Good decision, change it!
Nah. I guess I am fine.
However, I adore the company of people when they are drunk.
@andieangel : You think I did a fairly accurate job on this?So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,
This is my analysis.
601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)
Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.
So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get
601-1200 199
451-600 764
441-450 200
431-440 2070
Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431
If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1
PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs
If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution
601-1200 400
451-600 1400
441-450 500
431-440 2550
Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431
If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1
PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs
Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.
PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon.
I completely agree with your predictions. I have a similar take. My CRS is 433 and I am hoping for a draw on
So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,
This is my analysis.
601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)
Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.
So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get
601-1200 199
451-600 764
441-450 200
431-440 2070
Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431
If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1
PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs
If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution
601-1200 400
451-600 1400
441-450 500
431-440 2550
Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431
If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1
PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs
Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.
PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon.
I completely support you.PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon.
You definitely didn't make it up! I've read it tooI have to find it, sorry, I've read it somewhere I didn't make it up, I promise!
Unfortunately, most people when they're drinking don't like the company of sober peopleNah. I guess I am fine.
However, I adore the company of people when they are drunk.
andieangel
Champion Member
Hahaha! So true!Unfortunately, most people when they're drinking don't like the company of sober people
I'll act drunk.Unfortunately, most people when they're drinking don't like the company of sober people
You won't know
Oh! We'll know! Drinkers are smart that wayI'll act drunk.
You won't know
CheersJust water.
I guess I am one of the youngest aspirants here.
I am 25 and yes I don't drink and no, it's not cos of my religion.
I thought I was alone here... I'm 24 (turning 25 in November) and I don't drink too
@andieangel Am I invited too?
You beat me by a year, I am 26 . Good to see you , anyone inviting me for Yakon party ?Just water.
I guess I am one of the youngest aspirants here.
I am 25 and yes I don't drink and no, it's not cos of my religion.
Reallylllll is this for FSW inland or Outland?.