Ray of Hope 68th Draw

[Mithu3]

Is this really true?

[Draws pattern] Know when there will be a draw
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/draws-pattern-know-when-there-will-be-a-draw.480148/

There's no rule for this and nothing is written in stone! Thanks for the encouragement though, this is a Ray of hope thread after all! Thumbs up!

Hey andie, sa83 is just replying on the above thread..

 

[Globetrotter2017]

Is this really true?

[Draws pattern] Know when there will be a draw
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/draws-pattern-know-when-there-will-be-a-draw.480148/

No it isn't true. On June 27, there was a maintenance, however on June 28th there was a draw.

 

[abhishek_89]

According to this no draw takes place next day of maintenance contrary to expectations of ppl here.

The last time maintenance happened on a Tuesday was June 27th and there was a draw on June 28th (Wednesday).

 

[abhishek_89]

Is this really true?

[Draws pattern] Know when there will be a draw
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/draws-pattern-know-when-there-will-be-a-draw.480148/

Read the whole thread, there was a draw on May 17 (Wednesday) after a scheduled maintenance on May 16 (Tuesday).

 

[abhishek_89]

Yes it is very possible. Especially those applying under CEC.

Currently the processing is happening quicker for FSW than CEC..There are 4 FSW folks who already have PPR who submitted application in May..

 

[andieangel]

So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,

This is my analysis.


601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)

Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.

So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get

601-1200 199
451-600 764
441-450 200
431-440 2070

Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs

If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution

601-1200 400
451-600 1400
441-450 500
431-440 2550

Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs


Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.

PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon.

How dare you??? Kidding! Great analysis, you're invited to Yukon party! But you have to bring drinks!

 

[TanakaM]

Currently the processing is happening quicker for FSW than CEC..There are 4 FSW folks who already have PPR who submitted application in May..

Possibly, but on average CEC will always be quicker.

 

[andieangel]

I know this is ray of hope and I am one the many hopefuls here....I was only quoting what that link says in order to gather other's opinion about it. Furthermore that link was not posted by me..

There might be a draw and might not! We'll see! Hoping for one every week!

 

[Globetrotter2017]

How dare you??? Kidding! Great analysis, you're invited to Yukon party! But you have to bring drinks!

Hey Andie,

Game of thrones starts today.

Thanks for the invite for the Yukon pardie... And don't worry about drinks, I don't drink.

 

[tjsecondtry]

But will my application get rejected since I had clicked on the option of all provinces? Or the rejection is only if we specifically select quebec?

I don't think all provinces is a problem. But if you want to go to Quebec, you aren't allowed to use EE.

 

[andieangel]

Hey Andie,

Game of thrones starts today.

Thanks for the invite for the Yukon pardie... And don't worry about drinks, I don't drink.

GOT, yeah I know, my husband is a huge fan!

Wait, you don't drink at all or? Like no water or anything?

 

[Globetrotter2017]

GOT, yeah I know, my husband is a huge fan!

Wait, you don't drink at all or? Like no water or anything?

Just water.
I guess I am one of the youngest aspirants here.
I am 25 and yes I don't drink and no, it's not cos of my religion.

 

[Globetrotter2017]

GOT, yeah I know, my husband is a huge fan!

Wait, you don't drink at all or? Like no water or anything?

When I come to croatia, which is very soon, please tell you husband to take me to Dubrovnik.

 

[andieangel]

Thx...Where does it say one month grace period? That appears to be correct since it doesn't look like it was in effect for the 6/28 draw, I just don't see where the grace period is stated.

I have to find it, sorry, I've read it somewhere I didn't make it up, I promise!

 

[andieangel]

Just water.
I guess I am one of the youngest aspirants here.
I am 25 and yes I don't drink and no, it's not cos of my religion.

Good decision, change it!