Ray of Hope 67th Draw

[vickeysaw]

There is a flaw in this calculation. How have you come up with the 'Average no. of applicant inflow per day : 150'?

Is the average number based on the CIC data released as of June 22?
Have you included the average number of applicants entering the express entry pool with CRS 401 and above only?


Please find below the data released by CIC.

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 22, 2017

CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 355
451-600 2,216
441-450 809
431-440 1,082
421-430 1,172


Let me give you an average based on just the data mentioned as of Jun 22.

We had a draw on May 31 with CRS cut off as 413, which basically means after the draw happened on May 31, the number of active applicants with a CRS score of 413 and above in the Express Entry Pool is 0 as on May 31, 2017.

For calculation easiness, I am considering only the data of applicants above 421 CRS as of June 22.

On May 31 2017, 0 applicants above CRS 421 and above
On Jun 22 2017, 5634 (355+2216+809+1082+1172) applicants with CRS 421 and above

So based on the above 2 points, in 22 days (from May 31 to Jun 22) 5634 applicants entered the pool with CRS 421 and above.
Hence, Average no. of applicants entered EE pool per day with a CRS of 421 and above = 5634/22 = 256

Notes:
1) The average includes those who have improved their scores + new applicants.
2) The average is a bit on the higher side than usual as the June 6 changes were implemented during this timeframe.

I am using data which is being published by CIC from March 2017 till date for my calculations and the average intake per day to the Express Entry pool for CRS 421 and above is approximately 215.

Hi Abhishek,

Although your calculations look good for last draw, I do not agree (respectfully of course!!!).

I would like to share few more numbers to support my opinion (YES. I am that crazy to keep track of all this ... LOL):
22-Jun
601-1200 355
451-600 2216
441-450 809
431-440 1082
421-430 1172
411-420 1968
401-410 4432

26-May
601-1200 143
451-600 656
441-450 226
431-440 295
421-430 206
411-420 1878
401-410 4112

12-May
601-1200 229
451-600 704
441-450 229
431-440 245
421-430 303
411-420 2248
401-410 3994

28-Apr
601-1200 113
451-600 1023
441-450 318
431-440 462
421-430 453
411-420 2003
401-410 3942

Consider following cut-offs :
May 4 : 423 CRS
May 17 : 415 CRS
May 31 : 413 CRS

Considering these cut-offs it is safe to assume that the draws that happened on May 12 and May 26 had only NEW candidates above 420 (considering May 4 draw with CRS 423 close enough to 420 ).

So new candidates added in May 17 draw above 420 = 229+704+229+245+303 = 1710
May 17 draw happned 13 days after previous draw.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 131

Lets consider new candidates added in May 26 draw above 420 = 143+656+226+295+206 = 1526
May 17 draw happened 14 days after previous draw.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 109

Coming to my "pessimist" prediction considering 2 week draws with around 3500 ITA's:
July 12 : CRS 432+-2
July 26 : CRS 420+-2

 

[andieangel]

Hi Abhishek,

Although your calculations look good for last draw, I do not agree (respectfully of course!!!).

I would like to share few more numbers to support my opinion (YES. I am that crazy to keep track of all this ... LOL):
22-Jun
601-1200 355
451-600 2216
441-450 809
431-440 1082
421-430 1172
411-420 1968
401-410 4432

26-May
601-1200 143
451-600 656
441-450 226
431-440 295
421-430 206
411-420 1878
401-410 4112

12-May
601-1200 229
451-600 704
441-450 229
431-440 245
421-430 303
411-420 2248
401-410 3994

28-Apr
601-1200 113
451-600 1023
441-450 318
431-440 462
421-430 453
411-420 2003
401-410 3942

Consider following cut-offs :
May 4 : 423 CRS
May 17 : 415 CRS
May 31 : 413 CRS

Considering these cut-offs it is safe to assume that the draws that happened on May 12 and May 26 had only NEW candidates above 420 (considering May 4 draw with CRS 423 close enough to 420 ).

So new candidates added in May 17 draw above 420 = 229+704+229+245+303 = 1710
May 17 draw happned 13 days after previous draw.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 131

Lets consider new candidates added in May 26 draw above 420 = 143+656+226+295+206 = 1526
May 17 draw happened 14 days after previous draw.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 109

Coming to my "pessimist" prediction considering 2 week draws with around 3500 ITA's:
July 12 : CRS 432+-2
July 26 : CRS 420+-2

Great job!

 

[andieangel]

Hi Abhishek,

Although your calculations look good for last draw, I do not agree (respectfully of course!!!).

I would like to share few more numbers to support my opinion (YES. I am that crazy to keep track of all this ... LOL):
22-Jun
601-1200 355
451-600 2216
441-450 809
431-440 1082
421-430 1172
411-420 1968
401-410 4432

26-May
601-1200 143
451-600 656
441-450 226
431-440 295
421-430 206
411-420 1878
401-410 4112

12-May
601-1200 229
451-600 704
441-450 229
431-440 245
421-430 303
411-420 2248
401-410 3994

28-Apr
601-1200 113
451-600 1023
441-450 318
431-440 462
421-430 453
411-420 2003
401-410 3942

Consider following cut-offs :
May 4 : 423 CRS
May 17 : 415 CRS
May 31 : 413 CRS

Considering these cut-offs it is safe to assume that the draws that happened on May 12 and May 26 had only NEW candidates above 420 (considering May 4 draw with CRS 423 close enough to 420 ).

So new candidates added in May 17 draw above 420 = 229+704+229+245+303 = 1710
May 17 draw happned 13 days after previous draw.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 131

Lets consider new candidates added in May 26 draw above 420 = 143+656+226+295+206 = 1526
May 17 draw happened 14 days after previous draw.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 109

Coming to my "pessimist" prediction considering 2 week draws with around 3500 ITA's:
July 12 : CRS 432+-2
July 26 : CRS 420+-2

What about predictions for draws after above ones?

 

[ajithj]

So new candidates added in May 17 draw above 420 = 229+704+229+245+303 = 1710
May 17 draw happned 13 days after previous draw.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 131

The numbers you have quoted is as of 12th May which is 8 days from the draw on May 4th. So number of candidates added above 420 is 1710/8 = 214

Similarly for the second set of numbers is for May 26th which is 9 days from draw on May 17th. So number of candidates added above 420 is 1526/9 = 170

 

[ravidgohil@gmail.com]

414 & wait continues...

 

[lino82]

Can you provide the source for this information?

I've heard in this very forum that PNP applicants are processed faster because their documentation is already verified

If within 14 days Ontario is issuing nominations (as the case is these days) it is likely that they don't go for document verification or credibility check (contacting employers / police checks)...I'm sure they will
leave it to CIC as their responsibility ends with assessing eligibility for nomination...and of course collecting $1500
However what he said about 'least preference' also can't be true...
nomination just helps a candidate secure an ita...thereafter the process will remain same...only other scenario would be,if PNP files are handled separate and the number of officers at CIC handling same remain same despite the increase in nominations these days...

 

[vickeysaw]

The numbers you have quoted is as of 12th May which is 8 days from the draw on May 4th. So number of candidates added above 420 is 1710/8 = 214

Similarly for the second set of numbers is for May 26th which is 9 days from draw on May 17th. So number of candidates added above 420 is 1526/9 = 170

Well I am calculating days between stats. If you check dates between stats they the stats are 14 days apart. Hence I think my numbers are still valid.

In fact I made a small calculation error. and the actual number is even less. Here is updated calculation

So new candidates added in May 12 stats above 420 = 229+704+229+245+303 = 1710
May 12 stats are 14 days after previous stats of Apr 28.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 122

Lets consider new candidates added in May 26 draw above 420 = 143+656+226+295+206 = 1526
May 26 stats are 14 days after previous stats of May 12.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 109


Since my mind is pessimist I am going by 150 candidates per day

Again these are just my calculations and my predictions. Unfortunately, CIC dosent consult me before the draws

 

[vickeysaw]

What about predictions for draws after above ones?

Aug 9 : CRS 412+- 2

Aug 23 : CRS 405+-2

Sept 6 : Magic number 400

 

[vickeysaw]

414 & wait continues...

3-4 draws from now and you are in!

 

[ajithj]

Well I am calculating days between stats. If you check dates between stats they the stats are 14 days apart. Hence I think my numbers are still valid.

In fact I made a small calculation error. Here is updated calculation

So new candidates added in May 12 stats above 420 = 229+704+229+245+303 = 1710
May 12 stats are 14 days after previous stats of Apr 28.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 122

Lets consider new candidates added in May 26 draw above 420 = 143+656+226+295+206 = 1526
May 26 stats are 14 days after previous stats of May 12.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 109

The method of using days between stats will not be accurate. Let me give you an example:

lets say 200 people were added into pool with 420+ score on May 1st (This is between the stats of April 28th and May 12th). These 200 people got ITA on May 4th draw.

Now these 200 new candidates are not captured on stats on May 12th (since they already got ITA). So in your calculation you will be missing these new candidates who were added from April 28th to May 4th.

 

[Ginni0890]

Hello Guys, My spouse has ielt score of 2014. will I get credit for this or he has to appear again in ielts as old score is three years back.
Regards

 

[vickeysaw]

The method of using days between stats will not be accurate. Let me give you an example:

lets say 200 people were added into pool with 420+ score on May 1st (This is between the stats of April 28th and May 12th). These 200 people got ITA on May 4th draw.

Now these 200 new candidates are not captured on stats on May 12th (since they already got ITA). So in your calculation you will be missing these new candidates who were added from April 28th to May 4th.

Hmmm....You have a point. Since these stats are 4 days older I should be diving by 10 instead of 14. That means 170 and 150 candidates were added per day for the draws I mentioned !!!

Thanks for setting me straight. Thats why u are a star member and I am a newbie I guess

This means that by pessimistic estimates (180 candidates per day above 420, 2 week draws, 3500 ITA per draw) it will take roughly 4 draws to reach score of 420.

We really need back to back draws!!!

 

[abhishek_89]

Hi Abhishek,

Although your calculations look good for last draw, I do not agree (respectfully of course!!!).

I would like to share few more numbers to support my opinion (YES. I am that crazy to keep track of all this ... LOL):
22-Jun
601-1200 355
451-600 2216
441-450 809
431-440 1082
421-430 1172
411-420 1968
401-410 4432

26-May
601-1200 143
451-600 656
441-450 226
431-440 295
421-430 206
411-420 1878
401-410 4112

12-May
601-1200 229
451-600 704
441-450 229
431-440 245
421-430 303
411-420 2248
401-410 3994

28-Apr
601-1200 113
451-600 1023
441-450 318
431-440 462
421-430 453
411-420 2003
401-410 3942

Consider following cut-offs :
May 4 : 423 CRS
May 17 : 415 CRS
May 31 : 413 CRS

Considering these cut-offs it is safe to assume that the draws that happened on May 12 and May 26 had only NEW candidates above 420 (considering May 4 draw with CRS 423 close enough to 420 ).

So new candidates added in May 17 draw above 420 = 229+704+229+245+303 = 1710
May 17 draw happned 13 days after previous draw.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 131

Lets consider new candidates added in May 26 draw above 420 = 143+656+226+295+206 = 1526
May 17 draw happened 14 days after previous draw.
So number of candidates added above 420 per day = 109

Coming to my "pessimist" prediction considering 2 week draws with around 3500 ITA's:
July 12 : CRS 432+-2
July 26 : CRS 420+-2

The flaw everyone has in their calculation is that they mix up the draw date and the CIC data published date. Also, they ignore that a draw happened and flushed the pool with all above the CRS cut off. For example, for the draw that happened on May 17, CIC published data as of May 12. For the draw that happened on May 4, CIC published data as of April 28.

It is easier to calculate the actual numbers added to the pool when the CRS cut off goes up as the previous numbers would have been 0 as everyone would have been flushed out.

So let us look at the 2 instances apart from the June 28 draw where the cut off increased compared to the previous draw.

Case 1:
Mar 1 - CRS 434
Mar 24 - CRS 441 - 3749 ITAs

Data points:
On Mar 1, there are 0 applicants above CRS 441
On Mar 24, there are 3749 applicants above CRS 441
Average = 3749/23 = 163 applicants per day with CRS 441 and above

Case 2:
Apr 19 - CRS 415
May 4 - CRS 423 - 3796 ITAs

Data points:
On Apr 19, there are 0 applicants above CRS 423
On May 4, there are 3796 applicants above CRS 423
Average = 3796/15 = 253 applicants per day with CRS 423 and above

 

[rekhabishop]

Thanks for your reply. I was actually concerned because after he transfers the money to my account, I guess he will be left with around 2000 CAD, will that be a problem, since I ll have to submit his bank statement as well

I have a similar query. Could someone help?

 

[mqamar1994]

If within 14 days Ontario is issuing nominations (as the case is these days) it is likely that they don't go for document verification or credibility check (contacting employers / police checks)...I'm sure they will
leave it to CIC as their responsibility ends with assessing eligibility for nomination...and of course collecting $1500
However what he said about 'least preference' also can't be true...
nomination just helps a candidate secure an ita...thereafter the process will remain same...only other scenario would be,if PNP files are handled separate and the number of officers at CIC handling same remain same despite the increase in nominations these days...

Oh God you are so worried about those 1500 dollars right? I remember you quoted me saying something similar earlier.

Let me make this clear to you. I don't know about you but I've been waiting for this opportunity for over a year as soon as I became eligible. I don't want to sit my on my ass and wait for things to happen. So stop telling me or others what they should be doing.

 

[kuber101]

Definitely within the month of July

 

[jaybee2]

Hello Guys, My spouse has ielt score of 2014. will I get credit for this or he has to appear again in ielts as old score is three years back.
Regards

Hi!
IELTS is valid for only 2 years. Hence, your spouse's has expired.
He/she should retake same if you need the additional points!

All the best.