Ray of Hope 67th Draw

[shaun75]

What a ride ROH 66 was, but as a newbie who read and f5'd my keyboard to death I need ROH 67 to be easier on my heart. Or if not we'll need to start talking about Whiskey again!

Congrats to all who got it in. Onwards to 500+ pages.

 

[BillHyatt]

Guys I have a question....

as a matter of time
how much is OINP taking vs Express entry (FSW) directly ?
I got a NOI from ontario with a 421 score, dont know if it is worth it.

It depends on security checks and your medical history. If they both are clear and nothing complicated then the average time for PNP will be 2-3 months while direct ITA average is 4 months. However, time will vary for each case depending on documents attached and security checks.

 

[ivancabrer]

Hello everyone, I've been very busy today.
Unfortunately my personal calculations were very close to the last draw, so now you can understand why I was so quiet. I wanted to be wrong so bad.
I thought it would be about 445 with 3800 ITAs, but because they only sent 3400 ITAs, the the number was higher (449), which is a very sour taste.

This time around I'll try to give back real hope, not just an optimistic calculation.
So, I'll assume the IRCC will continue sending 3400 ITAs, but because of this huge GAP I'll take a couple scenarios for next two draws.

Ok, without further ado, here's what I think next time around will be like:

Most pessimistic.
Asuming normal draw dates:
July 12th (Draw 67th): 431
July 26th (Draw 68th): 423

Most optimistic.
Assuming 2 consecutive draws (back to back):
July 5th (Draw 67th): 426
July 12th (Draw 68th): 415

Asuming 1 consecutive draw and 1 normal drawdates:
Scenario 1:
July 5th (Draw 67th): 426
July 19th (Draw 68th): 418
Scenario 2:
July 12th (Draw 67th): 431
July 19th (Draw 68th): 418


Anyways, I'm trying to be realistic, but with an optimistic point of view, if there's even such a thing.
The bottom line is that the downward trend should continue after these two draws.

As a side note:
I'm just taking into account the variations in each segment, and there's no way that I can know which of these variations are due to the recent changes, so maybe in next draws the variations in some segments could be less, and that could make the CRS fall a little faster than what I think.
Maybe in August it could go below 410, or at least return to where it was before the changes.
Also, if they send again 3800+ ITAs, the trend could be accelerated.

This was a very weird draw, so let's not get sad about this outcome.

Let's cheer up guys, a little bump on the road is nothing. We shall continue hoping for the best!

 

[KingKurly]

I believe there were 10 ppl who created their profile on the same day..

or i read somewhere the date tie breaker would happen after couple of draws.. anyone remember?

I guess then next draw might give us a clear idea rite!

 

[lino82]

What a ride ROH 66 was, but as a newbie who read and f5'd my keyboard to death I need ROH 67 to be easier on my heart. Or if not we'll need to start talking about Whiskey again!

Congrats to all who got it in. Onwards to 500+ pages.

do we really want to wait that long......
how about a draw with cut off at 420 by the time we him 150 pages...or even much before......

 

[astralsource]

Hello everyone, I've been very busy today.
Unfortunately my personal calculations were very close to the last draw, so now you can understand why I was so quiet. I wanted to be wrong so bad.
I thought it would be about 445 with 3800 ITAs, but because they only sent 3400 ITAs, the the number was higher (449), which is a very sour taste.

This time around I'll try to give back real hope, not just an optimistic calculation.
So, I'll assume the IRCC will continue sending 3400 ITAs, but because of this huge GAP I'll take a couple scenarios for next two draws.

Ok, without further ado, here's what I think next time around will be like:

Most pessimistic.
Asuming normal draw dates:
July 12th (Draw 67th): 431
July 26th (Draw 68th): 423

Most optimistic.
Assuming 2 consecutive draws (back to back):
July 5th (Draw 67th): 426
July 12th (Draw 68th): 415

Asuming 1 consecutive draw and 1 normal drawdates:
Scenario 1:
July 5th (Draw 67th): 426
July 19th (Draw 68th): 418
Scenario 2:
July 12th (Draw 67th): 431
July 19th (Draw 68th): 418


Anyways, I'm trying to be realistic, but with an optimistic point of view, if there's even such a thing.
The bottom line is that the downward trend should continue after these two draws.

As a side note:
I'm just taking into account the variations in each segment, and there's no way that I can know which of these variations are due to the recent changes, so maybe in next draws the variations in some segments could be less, and that could make the CRS fall a little faster than what I think.
Maybe in August it could go below 410, or at least return to where it was before the changes.
Also, if they send again 3800+ ITAs, the trend could be accelerated.

This was a very weird draw, so let's not get sad about this outcome.

Let's cheer up guys, a little bump on the road is nothing. We shall continue hoping for the best!

Hey, nice calculation. Did you try to calculate how many ITAs will they issue for 2017 until they satisfy the quota (until cca October)? That would tell a lot.

 

[langoorbandar]

I'm sitting at 439 today so missed it by 10 points. However, hope is my wife's ECA will come before next draw which should give us additional 8 points to take it to 447. Wishing everyone good luck and may 67th draw give us the ITAs we all want

 

[dkchaitanya]

You can wait for next 1-2 draws for now.

even iam also at 421 shall i wait or accept OINP?

 

[shaun75]

do we really want to wait that long......
how about a draw with cut off at 420 by the time we him 150 pages...or even much before......

At this rate we'll hit 150 pages by Saturday..... not sure about 420 by then though!

 

[Immime2017]

@Immime2017, now that the score distribution is out for 22nd June and the latest cut-off declared, do you still believe that the cut-off will go below 400?
I know, you rely on your math and that takes time, but please update us with your predictions and do drop by our RoH thread once in a while!!

There is bad news in the latest stats. The average number of candidates 401+ added per day over the past 4 weeks = 316 candidate.

If this trend continues, we will not see the score go to 400, given that they do only one ~3500 round every two weeks.
If it's just a temporary spike of candidates who just added their french/sibling points, in addition to graduating university/masters students, then we should expect the # of Candidates/day added to decrease in the next two rounds. I will watch the next two rounds closely to determine the trend of the # of Candidates added/day to predict what's going to happen moving forward.

 

[canada_dreamer]

Thanks I am in a dilemma whether I should go for that. I am currently at 419 points.

Oinp is currently processing applications in 10 days or less.

 

[mqamar1994]

It depends on security checks and your medical history. If they both are clear and nothing complicated then the average time for PNP will be 2-3 months while direct ITA average is 4 months. However, time will vary for each case depending on documents attached and security checks.

You mean to say the time for getting PPR?

 

[Karnesh]

Do we have a tracker on this website where we can see the status of the people who applied and got their nominations?

https://myimmitracker.com/en/ca/trackers/ontario-human-capital-priorities-stream-tracker

 

[canada_dreamer]

Do we have a tracker on this website where we can see the status of the people who applied and got their nominations?

Visit oinp specific threads. You can also try myimmitracker.

 

[Karnesh]

even iam also at 421 shall i wait or accept OINP?

Wait for 1-2 draws.