I have been watching the immitracker, I even went as far back as other AOR months and this is what I have noticed:
After medicals passed is when there's the highest chance of rejection. Specifically 1 to 10 days after medicals passed. In this case, medicals passed takes 60 days, most rejections on the immitracker and also ADR come between days 60 to 70. I am yet to see any rejections after day 70. So if your AOR is past 70 days, you can breathe a sigh of relief. Going by this trend, I think it is safe to assume that R10 and A11.2 take place at this stage.This is also the stage where most people get ADR.
As soon as you pass R10, it changes to NA. The period between NA and IP2 is when security and criminality are checked. This is why the time line varies for many people because we all have various backgrounds.
After your security is passed, you move on to IP2 where your file is checked the last time by a senior officer for program integrity. This senior officer will also make the final decision or recommendation. This doesn't take a long time because it is just a review.