Here is how the CRS will go below 400 (Updated with more graphs)

[monavy]

I love the new changes. It will give us more transparency into the system moving forward, and will make predictions easier. For example, if they want to invite 30,000 more candidates, and we know that they take exactly 3500 per round, it will be easier and more accurate to predict the trends. Currently, I just make an assumption on how many candidates they will take based on the # of candidates they have been taking.

What new changes?

 

[ivancabrer]

I love the new changes. It will give us more transparency into the system moving forward, and will make predictions easier. For example, if they want to invite 30,000 more candidates, and we know that they take exactly 3500 per round, it will be easier and more accurate to predict the trends. Currently, I just make an assumption on how many candidates they will take based on the # of candidates they have been taking.

Do they say specifically how many candidates they will invite?, if they do, where can I find that link?

I ask because, even if they have sent a number of ITAs this year, and they told in 2016 the amount of people they want to receive for economic inmigration under the EE system, we currently don't have a way of knowing how many people reject their ITAs.
So my question is, will they start giving more information about the current statistics?

 

[monavy]

Do they say specifically how many candidates they will invite?, if they do, where can I find that link?

I ask because, even if they have sent a number of ITAs this year, and they told in 2016 the amount of people they want to receive for economic inmigration under the EE system, we currently don't have a way of knowing how many people reject their ITAs.
So my question is, will they start giving more information about the current statistics?

do you have a link where these changes are mentioned?

 

[can2174]

Hi Everyone,

Its good to see people predicting and doing analysis on CRS invites. I am a landed immigrant here in canada. I must say you guys are showing great enthusiasm as we used to show when we applied for PR in earlier process before EE.

I got to know about Express entry somewhere in Feb-march 2014 where CIC declared that they would come up with Expression of interest program from 1st Jan 2015. Until then I was preparing to apply for regular FSW program under which one needs to just score 67/100 points to be eligible and submit the application. I applied on 7th May 2014 and got PR on 19th May 2015, so it took me just 1 year for total turn around. During our times some ppl got CoPR in 7 months ,some got in 12 ..some in 16 or 18. Some are still waiting to hear about their PR.

It is very well known fact that only 50-60% of total applications submitted actually land in Canada, a of lot of candidates get rejected due to missing or invalid documents, some after getting PR don't land due to personal reasons, at least 20% of applications are stuck for no reason. Some after landing return back because they don't like weather or they are unable to secure a decent job. So even if IRCC is inviting 3500+ in each draw , the rate of processing the applications will go down , average processing time as promised is 6 months but for people from India,Philippines, Bangladesh the processing time will shoot up as local processing will take longer time as there are more candidates from these countries. So getting an ITA is not enough, it is entire journey that you have to be patient with.

Good luck to all.

 

[monavy]

Hi Everyone,

Its good to see people predicting and doing analysis on CRS invites. I am landed immigrant here in canada. I must say you guys are showing great enthusiasm as we used to show when we applied for PR in earlier process before EE.

I got to know about Express entry somewhere in Feb-march 2014 where CIC declared that they would come up with Expression of interest program from 1st Jan 2015. Untill then I was preparing to apply for regular FSW program under which one needs to just score 67/100 points to be eligible and submit the application. I applied on 7th May 2014 and got PR on 19th May 2015, so it took me just 1 year for total turn around. During our times some ppl got 7 months ,some got in 12 ..some in 16 or 18. Some are still waiting to hear about their PR.

It is very well known fact that only 50-60% of total applications submitted actually land in Canada, a of lot of candidates get rejected due to missing or invalid documents, some after getting PR don't land due to personal reasons, at least 20% of applications are stuck for no reason. Some after landing return back because they don't like weather or they are unable to secure a decent job. So even if IRCC is inviting 3500+ in each draw , the rate of processing the applications will go down , average processing time as promised is 6 months but for people from India,Philippines, Bangladesh the processing time will shoot up as local processing will take longer time as there are more candidates from these countries. So getting an ITA is not enough, it is entire journey that you have to be patient with.

Good luck to all.

Where does CIC say about a fixed number 3500 or 3600 draw size? does anyone have any link please?

 

[ivancabrer]

do you have a link where these changes are mentioned?

Here are the links for the numbers they give for the 2017 plan.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada Departmental Plan 2017 – 2018
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2016-10-31.asp

Supplementary Information 2017 Immigration Levels Plan
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/dp/2017-2018/dp.asp#sec06-1


But my question was to @Immime2017 , if they give any more information about the present executions of the plan, so we can make better assumptions when making the predictions for next rounds when they start inviting candidates in round number.

 

[ivancabrer]

Where does CIC say about a fixed number 3500 or 3600 draw size? does anyone have any link please?

In this example:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=1318&top=29

 

[21Goose]

In this example:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/helpcentre/answer.asp?qnum=1318&top=29

That's just an example. They aren't saying they will set a fixed draw size.

 

[ivancabrer]

That's just an example. They aren't saying they will set a fixed draw size.

You're right, but here:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2017/03/express_entry_improvementsspring2017.html

They say this:
___
Before June 6, 2017
Candidates in the pool are ranked by their CRS score

The Express Entry system ranks candidates in the pool by their CRS score alone.

At the time of an invitation round, all candidates with the same CRS score that corresponds to the minimum rank must be invited to apply, making it hard for the Department to manage invitation rounds.

On June 6, 2017
Candidates in the pool are ranked by their CRS score and the date and time their profile entered the pool to rank tied scores.

The Express Entry system will rank candidates in the pool by their CRS score. Where a CRS tie exists, all tied candidates will then be ranked based on the date and time of their profile submission.

Candidates who update their profile with any new information will keep their original date and time stamp.

A new time and date stamp will be issued to candidates:

• who choose to withdraw their profile to complete a new one instead of updating their original profile, and,
• whose profile has expired and they complete and submit a new one.

___


They're not explicitly indicating that they'll do round number draws, but we assume they're doing the tie breaker to manage invitation rounds with rounded quantities. I believe in that point I agree with @Immime2017 . What I can't find is if they say how many candidates they have left to invite this year, as in that amount they'd have to take into account all the ITAs rejected, I think.

 

[21Goose]

They're not explicitly indicating that they'll do round number draws, but we assume they're doing the tie breaker to manage invitation rounds with rounded quantities. I believe in that point I agree with @Immime2017 . What I can't find is if they say how many candidates they have left to invite this year, as in that amount they'd have to take into account all the ITAs rejected, I think.

I suppose that's a possible interpretation. It makes sense, and we'll know after a few ITAs.

 

[Jojolet]

Wondering mind, I hereby award you the best Clown of the forum. I love your sense of humour my fellow oldie. Anyway, an advantage we can also be to thembis that most of oldies are coming with strong kids who on the mid term will add more economic value to CA

 

[Lyssiej]

Got an email with the changes yesterday, and it said that they will update over the next "several weeks" and that there won't be a draw until updates are complete. Yikes!

 

[ivancabrer]

Got an email with the changes yesterday, and it said that they will update over the next "several weeks" and that there won't be a draw until updates are complete. Yikes!

If they really take 2 weeks to process the updates for all candidates, then they would have to do consecutive draws.
Remember that's what they did in April after they had 3 weeks gap in the previous month.

I think that if they're working with a 3,500 ITAs per draw, every two weeks (just an assumption), then if they take more than two weeks between the draws, they'll have to overcompensate.

 

[ivancabrer]

Good news!
https://twitter.com/CBAImmigration/status/873245895407611904
"@ONCITIZEN will adjust entry requirements #400 may no longer be the cut off?"

You see this my friends?

This mean what we all here are praying for a while, the score should continue to decrease in the long run. That is why OINP realized that it is no longer logic to ask for a 400 minimun CRS to obtain a nomination from them, when soon any 400 candidate could obtain a direct ITA.

Good luck to all!

 

[ankitptrivedi]

There is a Q&A session going on with the people involved in the IRCC. Here are some of the highlights of the sessions :

• It might take upto a month before the CRS tie breaker comes into effect. (My personal translation of this means that the next draw could take upto a month)
• The updates have begun, but slowly. Updates should start to appear from this week.
• Use Letter of Explanation whenever you want to report/mention something unusual. It gives you a better chance of not being rejected straight away(for not providing any explanation).
• Provide police clearances for all countries where applicant spent 6 months CUMULATIVELY since 18 years of age. Failure to provide all necessary police clearances can result in application being denied.
  
• If documents can't be uploaded in one upload field, advise in explanation letter where it will be found.
  
• If uploading large files (4MB+) split it up and explain why you did what you did.
  
• There is no human interaction until the eAPR - a computer extends ITAs
  
• The CRS Tie breaker is introduced so that there can be predictability about the ITA's. Now the number of candidates invited would determine the CRS draw cut-off i.e. If 3600 candidates are to be invited, the CRS of the 3600th candidate would determine the cut-off.
• In Work History section, you only need to mention work experience that you are claiming points for. The rest of your work experience can be mentioned in Personal history.
• Use WebForm to report change of circumstance before landing, such as new child.
  
• Provide letters of explaination for anything that isn't clear in Express Entry