Here is how the CRS will go below 400 (Updated with more graphs)

[abasoufiane]

Can anybody please confirm if the CRS score does change after receiving ITA ? I'm asking this because i want to move away from my ccurrent score which is 415.

 

[ivancabrer]

Can anybody please confirm if the CRS score does change after receiving ITA ? I'm asking this because i want to move away from my ccurrent score which is 415.

Can you explain a little better?

 

[W.Naeem]

Any prediction about August CRS score ?

 

[abasoufiane]

Can you explain a little better?

I received an ITA with a 415 score. I'm wondering, can the score still change after a policy change ? For instance: After the 6th june, as a french speaker i would normally get an extra 30 points but would that affect my score or does the score freeze after getting an ITA.

 

[M DEV]

Welcome to the club! 63rd draw is ours

yupieeeeeeeeee

 

[M DEV]

I received an ITA with a 415 score. I'm wondering, can the score still change after a policy change ? For instance: After the 6th june, as a french speaker i would normally get an extra 30 points but would that affect my score or does the score freeze after getting an ITA.

i hope they get freezed

 

[ivancabrer]

I received an ITA with a 415 score. I'm wondering, can the score still change after a policy change ? For instance: After the 6th june, as a french speaker i would normally get an extra 30 points but would that affect my score or does the score freeze after getting an ITA.

The score freezes.
On the other hand, the score only matters to get your ITA. Once you have the ITA, why do you care anymore about your score?
Just get all your papers within the 90 days limit to be on your way to receive your PR.

Edit:
Also, if you have a birthday after receiving your ITA, it doesn't matter, your score won't go down and you still are qualified.
However, if you have a nomination from a province, or a job offer, receive your ITA, but then you no longer have one of those, you have to update your profile, it is your duty to do so. And if it goes down, then I think you'd have to decline the ITA.
You should confirm that, but they are very strict about misrepresentation, so be careful anybody that may have one of these situations.

 

[abasoufiane]

The score freezes.
On the other hand, the score only matters to get your ITA. Once you have the ITA, why do you care anymore about your score?
Just get all your papers within the 90 days limit to be on your way to receive your PR.

Edit:
Also, if you have a birthday after receiving your ITA, it doesn't matter, your score won't go down and you still are qualified.
However, if you have a nomination from a province, or a job offer, receive your ITA, but then you no longer have one of those, you have to update your profile, it is your duty to do so. And if it goes down, then I think you'd have to decline the ITA.
You should confirm that, but they are very strict about misrepresentation, so be careful anybody that may have one of these situations.

I do care because if anythingn gets a rejection in the application it will bring my score under the cut off, say for exemple they rejected one of your job for any reason, then you might lose points and because my score is 415 i have no free room to spare , got the idea ?

 

[TanakaM]

I do care because if anythingn gets a rejection in the application it will bring my score under the cut off, say for exemple they rejected one of your job for any reason, then you might lose points and because my score is 415 i have no free room to spare , got the idea ?

Hi,

My understanding is that your application is assessed based on the ministerial instruction that stood on the day you got your ITA. So you can not be awarded extra points for your French once the changes are made.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/tools/perm/express/refuse.asp

 

[ivancabrer]

I do care because if anythingn gets a rejection in the application it will bring my score under the cut off, say for exemple they rejected one of your job for any reason, then you might lose points and because my score is 415 i have no free room to spare , got the idea ?

Oh, I understand.
I thought they rejected the profile if they found something wrong and not correctly explained in an LoE, no matter if it didn't fall below the ITA threshold.
But what you say makes sense.

 

[picklee]

Not necessarily, not all ITA recipients convert, some reject, some don't have valid information, etc... so to get their ~ 70K they need to issue around 90k ITAs, which is what they are going to do this year. Look at 2015 and 2016 ratios for number of ITAs to # of people applying.

I will just add what I have pointed out previously.

Success rates of ITAs in 2015 was 70%. In 2016, it dropped to 59%. These are the percentage of ITAs that are not rejected and presumably become PR.

The average number of applicants per ITA in 2015 was about 1.7 persons.

With these numbers, we can estimate that IRCC needs to issue somewhere between 10-12k ITAs to land 10k immigrants. In other words, slightly more than one ITA per landed PR (1.003-1.190), on average.

IRCC has issued 43,456 ITAs this year. Given that we are still within the 6 month processing window for the majority of cases, we can confidently expect between 43,586 and 51,713 immigrants to land by year-end just from year-to-date 2017 draws.

The numbers (and we have 2.5 years of data now) do not support 90k ITAs being issued this year.

 

[bhavcaluk]

At 436 you can create EOI and get ITA in next draw.Last draw cutoff was at 415

 

[Immime2017]

I will just add what I have pointed out previously.

Success rates of ITAs in 2015 was 70%. In 2016, it dropped to 59%. These are the percentage of ITAs that are not rejected and presumably become PR.

The average number of applicants per ITA in 2015 was about 1.7 persons.

With these numbers, we can estimate that IRCC needs to issue somewhere between 10-12k ITAs to land 10k immigrants. In other words, slightly more than one ITA per landed PR (1.003-1.190), on average.

IRCC has issued 43,456 ITAs this year. Given that we are still within the 6 month processing window for the majority of cases, we can confidently expect between 43,586 and 51,713 immigrants to land by year-end just from year-to-date 2017 draws.

The numbers (and we have 2.5 years of data now) do not support 90k ITAs being issued this year.

Given the trends of success rates and other numbers, my bet will be they will go with the upper limit of the range you mentioned, which is 12K ITAs to land 10K immigrants, so to get the ~70K, they will invite ~84K+ this year.

 

[abasoufiane]

Given the trends of success rates and other numbers, my bet will be they will go with the upper limit of the range you mentioned, which is 12K ITAs to land 10K immigrants, so to get the ~70K, they will invite ~84K+ this year.

You guys are saying that the number of ITA each round (about 3500 ITA) will continue until year end ?

 

[arrayofhope]

I do care because if anythingn gets a rejection in the application it will bring my score under the cut off, say for exemple they rejected one of your job for any reason, then you might lose points and because my score is 415 i have no free room to spare , got the idea ?

They don't simply reject one of you previous work experience unless they have enough evidence that you never held that position. Based on the reference letters you provided, they may recalculate your work hours and that could bring your experience below claimed points. All the other documents are pretty straight forward to prove education/Language test scores, age etc.

Just make sure your reference letters have all the info and you should be good.