Hey guys, I had to register for an account on here just to leave this reply because my patience is running out of my ass.
I'm currently waiting for my eCoPR, I applied under the CEC EE and I got my P2 on Dec 23, which has been 9 weeks
I need my eCoPR to come ASAP so I can get my US B1 visa renewed for 10 years instead of just 1 year with my CWP
And I will have to travel to the States on May 9...
Do you guys think I should just play safe by renewing my B1 like now? There's like 70 days til May 9, and I think I can only wait for another 40 days maximum. From what I remember from last time I renewed my B1, it took like three weeks so I can't really wait pass March, otherwise, I will be totally fucked
but I mean... everyone would think a 10 year long visa is worthier to just wait but I don't really wanna play it risky cuz' I don't wanna miss this May trip
I have registered only to respond to your question (no kidding).
A dataset with 511 cases with eCOPRs in 2025 suggests that
* The longest recorded P2-to-eCOPR wait is 105 days
* 95% of cases (the 95th percentile of P2-to-eCOPR in days) get their eCOPR within 93 days since P2
* 99% of cases get it within 101 day
Moreover, after 90 days pass (in your case that would be Mar 23, 2025), you can call IRCC, explain the situation (that you need to travel urgently) and ask for the eCOPR issuance to be escalated.
There are some things in your question that you leave out, so I will mention that
* This week the consistency of ITA dates has been incredible. Almost 3 reported cases out of 4 have an ITA in July. July 2024 had 25K people invited, so it will take a while to process that batch but then August had 11K and September about 6K, so things will naturally accelerate for that reason
* The dominant AOR month currently is August
* The dominant P2 range is from late Nov through mid-December
All of this data is to say: now you know what to do after March 23, and statistically speaking, you are virtually guaranteed to get your eCOPR by April, even though the dataset used to produce these observations is small in the grand scheme of things.
HTH.
P.S. No, I will not share my dataset for many reasons. Everyone around this forum is welcome to collect one of your own and compute the distribution of AOR-to-eCOPR or P2-to-eCOPR dates, the correlation with ITA or AOR dates for a given period, and so on.
Thank you to everyone who shares their complete timelines, including the underappreciated ITA date, though! One day I might start posting some monthly numbers here to pay it back to this community.