July draw predictions

[powerssdd]

The backlog for temporary permits is huge. Some people decided to buy time with study permits.

So how much did the 10 months suspension of CEC help with reducing the backlog?

Some of them resorted to study permit, and which increased the TR backlog.
Some of them are eligible for the WP extension program, which also requires processing and increases the TR backlog.

They moved some backlog from the PR sector to the TR sector, and they consider it a big improvement.
That is why, at least partly, we are seeing the TR backlog keeps growing.

Worse, it is not just moving backlog around but keeping the total amount unchanged, instead, the TR applications are newly generated and additional.

They will apply for PR anyway after the CRS drops in the future, so the total amount of PR applications will be the same. They are just delayed for 1 or 2 years.

But the new TR applications meant to buy time wouldn't have existed at all if there weren't this suspension of CEC.

So the total number of applications will actually increase due to the genious method implemented by IRCC.

 

[aommnd]

So how much did the 10 months suspension of CEC help with reducing the backlog?

Some of them resorted to study permit, and which increased the TR backlog.
Some of them are eligible for the WP extension program, which also requires processing and increases the TR backlog.

They moved some backlog from the PR sector to the TR sector, and they consider it a big improvement.
That is why, at least partly, we are seeing the TR backlog keeps growing.

Worse, it is not just moving backlog around but keeping the total amount unchanged, instead, the TR applications are newly generated and additional.

They will apply for PR anyway after the CRS drops in the future, so the total amount of PR applications will be the same. They are just delayed for 1 or 2 years.

But the new TR applications meant to buy time wouldn't have existed at all if there weren't this suspension of CEC.

So the total number of applications will actually increase due to the genious method implemented by IRCC.

The number of applications in CEC will increase, the question is where do those applications land.
Pre pandemic, you still needed 470 or higher to have a chance, sometimes through a fluke maybe 460 could work but rarely below that.

If the score stabilizes now, perhaps it will stability higher than 470, so 470 becomes the new 450 and 490 becomes the new 470 (cutoff pre pandmic). I'm keeping an eye out specifically for 500+ and seeing how many 500+ are added and how much the score drops each round. If more 500+ are added but score still drops it means the new apps are in the low 500s rather than 530+

 

[Pujaholy]

My application is in the pool under CEC stream. I have got all my documents ready. My only concern is that the employment letter that I have has today's date. I don't know when I will get my ITA. Once I get it, is it okay to change the date myself? As it is digital, I can just edit the date on pdf and submit it. Is that okay or is it illegal to do that? i know its a silly question but still I want to be very sure as I am afraid of rejection.

 

[SatNight]

You should nevervchange date by yourself. They might check with your employer and might ask when you received the letter.

It is always best to get a reference letter for current employment after ITA, so it's as current as possible.

Is there a reason why you can't request a new letter of reference when you receive ITA?

 

[Pujaholy]

You should nevervchange date by yourself. They might check with your employer and might ask when you received the letter.

It is always best to get a reference letter for current employment after ITA, so it's as current as possible.

Is there a reason why you can't request a new letter of reference when you receive ITA?

Oh no its not a problem. My HR can change the date, no issue. I just didn't want to keep on bothering my HR, thats all. Thank you so much for your reply.

 

[SatNight]

Oh no its not a problem. My HR can change the date, no issue. I just didn't want to keep on bothering my HR, thats all. Thank you so much for your reply.

You will need to bother them, no other way around it!

 

[tring]

For CEC applicants, can we get 50 points for a job offer if it is until Jan 2024? I think the rule about it being 1 year after receiving PR sounds so vague, how can we even know when will we get ITA and when will we even receive PR

Does anyone have any insight on this?

 

[lumberjack23]

Oh no its not a problem. My HR can change the date, no issue. I just didn't want to keep on bothering my HR, thats all. Thank you so much for your reply.

what do you mean bother your HR, what's literally what they get paid for. Essentially you are asking if you should risk your application to save someone from doing work they get paid for.

 

[Ultraxion]

If the score stabilizes now, perhaps it will stability higher than 470, so 470 becomes the new 450 and 490 becomes the new 470 (cutoff pre pandmic). I'm keeping an eye out specifically for 500+ and seeing how many 500+ are added and how much the score drops each round. If more 500+ are added but score still drops it means the new apps are in the low 500s rather than 530+

Before the score stabilizes C-19 will kick in and change the game altogether.

 

[Pujaholy]

You will need to bother them, no other way around it!

Haha, you are right about that. Thanks

 

[aommnd]

Before the score stabilizes C-19 will kick in and change the game altogether.

What is your prediction for the next 2-3 draws then?

 

[Ultraxion]

What is your prediction for the next 2-3 draws then?

Nest 2-3 draws, frankly I don't care lol cuz I won't have a shot anyway. But I think the trend of +250 each draw will remain until it hits at least 3000. This is assuming their own memo wasn't bullcrap ("pre-pendemic level").

In a longer scope, they will clear 500+ within this year. Then they implement C-19, with a portion of the draws still being "no category specified". With that the generic cutoff will be high, I won't be surprised if it keeps above 500. This is a very conservative and pessimistic prediction imo.

 

[aommnd]

Nest 2-3 draws, frankly I don't care lol cuz I won't have a shot anyway. But I think the trend of +250 each draw will remain until it hits at least 3000. This is assuming their own memo wasn't bullcrap ("pre-pendemic level").

In a longer scope, they will clear 500+ within this year. Then they implement C-19, with a portion of the draws still being "no category specified". With that the generic cutoff will be high, I won't be surprised if it keeps above 500. This is a very conservative and pessimistic prediction imo.

There have been a lot of 500+ entrants recently. That is making me wonder if they will actually clear 500 or not

 

[Ultraxion]

There have been a lot of 500+ entrants recently. That is making me wonder if they will actually clear 500 or not

I did a rough calculation earlier in this thread, with a lot of if's:

As of today (July 26, 2022) there are 11 draws remaining for 2022. Assuming the +250 trend stays until it hits 3000 and keeps at 3000, there are 2000+2250+2500+2750+3000*7=30500 waiting to be invited this year. Notice how this is only about 40% of 75000 (FHS quota for 2023), and this number includes PNP as well. But let's say IRCC will consistently invite 3000 ppl each draw in H1 2023, I believe 30500 for the rest of this year is fair.

Post the draw on July 20, there are roughly 8000 ppl within the range 501-600. Let's assume in between each 2 draws there are always 1200 new ppl entering the pool in the range 501-600, by the end of the year there will be 8000+11*1200=21200 ppl between 501 and 600, without any draws. If you add ~8000 PNP (~11*800), that's still a bit shy of 30500. That's why I think they will clear 500+ this year.

 

[aommnd]

I did a rough calculation earlier in this thread, with a lot of if's:

As of today (July 26, 2022) there are 11 draws remaining for 2022. Assuming the +250 trend stays until it hits 3000 and keeps at 3000, there are 2000+2250+2500+2750+3000*7=30500 waiting to be invited this year. Notice how this is only about 40% of 75000 (FHS quota for 2023), and this number includes PNP as well. But let's say IRCC will consistently invite 3000 ppl each draw in H1 2023, I believe 30500 for the rest of this year is fair.

Post the draw on July 20, there are roughly 8000 ppl within the range 501-600. Let's assume in between each 2 draws there are always 1200 new ppl entering the pool in the range 501-600, by the end of the year there will be 8000+11*1200=21200 ppl between 501 and 600, without any draws. If you add ~8000 PNP (~11*800), that's still a bit shy of 30500. That's why I think they will clear 500+ this year.

That calculation looks right assuming the draw structures. Now just need to keep hoping that the economy does not nosedive and they pause immigration again (biggest worry at the moment - the recession). This is why it would be in the candidates favour now to get bigger draws.