Kareem El-Assal - 28 October, 2020
The U.S. presidential election that takes place on November 3rd will impact skilled worker immigration to Canada.
In 2015, when Canada launched the Express Entry system, the country issued 600 invitations to apply for permanent residence to candidates in the U.S.
This figure now stands at over 10,000 per year.
Data by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) suggests some 85 per cent of these individuals are non-U.S. citizens.
Hence, the increase in immigrants moving from the U.S. to Canada in recent years is being driven by non-citizens looking for the certainty that Canada offers.
Under Express Entry, successful candidates can obtain their permanent residence status within six months or less. As one can imagine, this is appealing to skilled workers who have lived in the U.S. for several years but are unsure of whether they will ever be able to obtain a Green Card.
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On the surface, one may assume this increase is due to uncertainty caused by the Trump administration.
While President Donald Trump has not made life easier for these Green Card hopefuls, we must understand immigration uncertainty in the U.S. long pre-dates his administration.
This uncertainty has existed for decades due to the low level of new immigrants welcomed by the U.S. each year. On a per capita basis, Canada welcomes three times more immigrants than the U.S. each year.
As a result, the U.S. does not have enough immigration spots available to skilled workers.
This challenge will continue to exist following the November 3rd election. Irrespective of whether Trump or Joe Biden win, demand among skilled workers to obtain Green Cards will far exceed the supply offered by a Trump or Biden administration.
On a more practical level, it may prove difficult for Trump or Biden to increase immigration levels. This is due to the devastating impact COVID-19 is having on the U.S. economy. It is unlikely Trump or Biden will push for higher immigration levels when unemployment in the U.S. is high.
In the face of continued uncertainty, we can expect skilled workers in the U.S. to continue to look to Canada as a viable option that can give them the permanent residence status they are looking for in as little as six months.
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