The next Express Entry draw is likely to result in a historic milestone for Canada's immigration system.
Despite the coronavirus pandemic, Canada has been holding frequent Express Entry draws throughout 2020.
Most of Canada's immigrants arrive as skilled workers, and most skilled workers are admitted through Express Entry.
Express Entry is a two-step system. In step one, eligible skilled worker candidates upload their profiles onto the website of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). In step two, IRCC invites the highest-scoring candidates to apply for permanent residence.
In 2018 and 2019, Canada issued over 85,000 invitations to apply (ITA) for permanent residence.
Going into 2020, IRCC set a target of issuing 91,800 ITAs this year. COVID-19 has had a major impact on Canada's immigration system resulting in a change in IRCC's plans.
One of the changes has been an increase in the number of ITAs issued during the coronavirus pandemic.
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The reason for more ITAs is Canada is aiming to increase its immigration levels significantly after COVID-19 so it can support its economic recovery. In October, IRCC said it would target the arrival of over 400,000 new permanent residents each year under its new Immigration Levels Plan 2021-2023.
To help it meet this target, IRCC has recently been holding the largest Express Entry draws in its history. Draws over the past two weeks have seen 5,000 ITAs issued in each draw, which is the first time draw sizes have been this large.
IRCC has now issued 97,350 ITAs in 2020. Given the sizes of recent draws, and there is still one more month left in 2020, there is a very high chance Canada will exceed 100,000 ITAs in a year for the first time ever.
Last week's draw saw the minimum required Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score fall to 469, which was the first time in 2020 it fell below 470 points. The previous low was 472 CRS points for an all-program draw which took place on November 18.
It is impossible to predict CRS cut-off scores but the recent decrease suggests that IRCC needs to decrease its CRS requirements slightly to achieve its immigration targets.
Express Entry draws used to happen on a bi-weekly basis prior to the pandemic on Wednesday. Since the pandemic, draws have also tended to occur on Wednesday but there has been more variability as IRCC grapples with the impacts of COVID-19. There have been occasions in 2020 where two Express Entry draws have occurred in the same week, and recently, draws have occurred in consecutive weeks. On the balance of probabilities, there will be at least two more Express Entry draws in 2020.
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