Round of Invitation & Cutoff Score!!! Logical Reasoning

[Waqas.vikc]

Hi All,
I have been relatively fresh to this very interesting forum and as per my piece of research for over last month or so I have following hypothesis for Round of invitations:

As per the last draw of 21st Sep cutoff score was 482 and number of invitations issued were 1288. This clearly means as of 21st Sep IRCC did not have any one left in the pool with score more than 481 i.e. all participants in EE pool with score of 482 and more were entertained.

Number of invitations issued always depend on what is the cutoff score IRCC set. For example for last time they set it to 482 and if they wished to set the score to 481 then there might be 2000+ people in the pool with that score so 1288 + 2000 was not feasible for them.

Next draw which is happening within 3 days’ time depends on how many people have entered in the pool in last two week. If for instance 2000 people entered the pool with say 500 score then you might see cutoff score raising instead of declining. Having said that I do not see 2000 in 2 weeks.

But again to predict the next cutoff score, I guess 475-481 is a common number and IRCC might clear this number from the pool. But once this 475 is clear they might come down depending on the entrant’s situation.

As we also know ONIP is opening in November so the next 3 draws are important for people having scores of 450+.

Thanks

 

[istari]

I think you have it backwards.

The cutoff is based on the number of invitations IRCC decides to issue, not the other way around.

 

[Waqas.vikc]

No i guess!

For example they might have a quota of 1500 invitations but at 482 score 1288 were present while if they go to 481 there might be 800 present. In this case they have to stick with 482 coz they cannot issue select number of people withing same point range

 

[tonykaram123]

exactly , if there are more than 1.5K people stacked on a single score (481, the max for a FSW), how will they issue invitations ? the number has to be very high considering the 1.5k stacked on 481 plus the others with a score of 481+ ( PNP, CEC and others)

 

[istari]

No i guess!

For example they might have a quota of 1500 invitations but at 482 score 1288 were present while if they go to 481 there might be 800 present. In this case they have to stick with 482 coz they cannot issue select number of people withing same point range

Yes, you're right about this.

 

[olipearce1987]

Hi All,
I have been relatively fresh to this very interesting forum and as per my piece of research for over last month or so I have following hypothesis for Round of invitations:

As per the last draw of 21st Sep cutoff score was 482 and number of invitations issued were 1288. This clearly means as of 21st Sep IRCC did not have any one left in the pool with score more than 481 i.e. all participants in EE pool with score of 482 and more were entertained.

Number of invitations issued always depend on what is the cutoff score IRCC set. For example for last time they set it to 482 and if they wished to set the score to 481 then there might be 2000+ people in the pool with that score so 1288 + 2000 was not feasible for them.

Next draw which is happening within 3 days’ time depends on how many people have entered in the pool in last two week. If for instance 2000 people entered the pool with say 500 score then you might see cutoff score raising instead of declining. Having said that I do not see 2000 in 2 weeks.

But again to predict the next cutoff score, I guess 475-481 is a common number and IRCC might clear this number from the pool. But once this 475 is clear they might come down depending on the entrant’s situation.

As we also know ONIP is opening in November so the next 3 draws are important for people having scores of 450+.

Thanks

I do agree with you mostly. CIC can set the amount of people they want to invite, but will also probably have a top number they want to invite that month, so as you said, it dropping the cutt off by one point would go way over their limit, they are more likely to stay beneath it.

 

[Waqas.vikc]

All i am saying is as of 21st Sep EE pool only contains participants less than or equal to 481 score and if there are no new entrants or less number then we are looking at dropping scores for sure.

 

[Sluffy]

All i am saying is as of 21st Sep EE pool only contains participants less than or equal to 481 score and if there are no new entrants or less number then we are looking at dropping scores for sure.

The pool is not closed. Look at summer draws.
Every two weeks around 750 people were entering the pool with the score 482+

 

[skdubai]

The pool is not closed. Look at summer draws.
Every two weeks around 750 people were entering the pool with the score 482+

A lot of those were probably PNP. So 750 people above 482 did not enter the pool. probably about half as many..

 

[Waqas.vikc]

Exactly!

PNP are kind of closed as of now, atleast till november. So we may see dip in score.

 

[Sluffy]

A lot of those were probably PNP. So 750 people above 482 did not enter the pool. probably about half as many.

It does not matter if they are PNP or not. It's a fact that there were around 750 people 482+ in the pool to be selected every two weeks.

 

[Sluffy]

Exactly!

PNP are kind of closed as of now, atleast till november. So we may see dip in score.

If the intake for PNP is closed, it does not mean that all nominations are issued. They are just closed for new intake, but applications are being proceed.

 

[Waqas.vikc]

All we care is 482 and above stock is cleared from the pool as of 21st sept and I do not see a major chunk to increase within 2 weeks time provided WES is pretty slow these days.

I see a Cutoff score at 475 for next draw.

Good luck all

 

[Sluffy]

All we care is 482 and above stock is cleared from the pool as of 21st sept and I do not see a major chunk to increase within 2 weeks time provided WES is pretty slow these days.

I see a Cutoff score at 475 for next draw.

Good luck all

You don't understand a thing

482 is cleared on Sept. 21

But people with the score 482+ continue to come.

Look at it


July 13 - 482, 747 ITAs
June 29 - 482, 773 ITAs

Though on June 29 482+ were cleared, enough of them came for July 13

 

[istari]

All we care is 482 and above stock is cleared from the pool as of 21st sept and I do not see a major chunk to increase within 2 weeks time provided WES is pretty slow these days.

I see a Cutoff score at 475 for next draw.

Good luck all

The cutoff for the June 29th draw was 482. The very next draw, 2 weeks later, was also 482, and another 747 invitations were issued.
Which means that 747 people entered the pool with 482+ points within that 2 week period.

The cutoff for the June 1st draw was 483. 2 weeks later, the cutoff was 488, and 762 invitations were issued.

People are entering the pool at a staggering rate.
Unless IRCC decides to massively increase the number of invitations they issue in EE in the next round, the cutoff will remain high.