I have been following this forum for sometime and here is my 2 cents on the score speculation through Express Entry:
Sources (Not allowed to paste links):
Google: Notice supplementary targets 2015
Google: Mid year report CIC 205
Analysis:
Economic type (High) targets for 2015:
FSW – 51K
CEC- 23K
PNP – 24K (out of 48K)
PNP (24K) is an optimistic number, since at least half are paper-based application processed through the older route and at best half will be processed through Express Entry. The paper based PNP route will always continue in future too as of current scenario. For verification visit PNP websites, most provinces have less than half allocated to PNP.
Assuming the targets remain same for 2016 and all the applications are processed through Express Entry (which is not true since there still will be a backlog of paper-based fsw/fst applications from 2014 which will offset any increase in immigration targets).
Total = 98K
This includes single applicants and applicants with family of 2,3,4 or even more. On an average if there are 2 visas issued per ITA effectively number of ITA issued in 2016 = 49K or 4K per month.
CIC is currently able to issue 3K ITA per month while keeping the score around 450. According to June mid year report there were more than 8.5K applicants between 400 and 450. This will double by 2015 December at the same rate. Further new PNP quotas will open up in 2016. Opening up of new PNP on one hand means more number of seats for applicants to grab but it also means with every single issue of PNP (and allocation of 600 points) the score will go up. So PNP is actually detrimental to CEC/FST/FSW candidate. Also the Pool is growing at 1500 application were week.
In short, Jan 2016 might be something like this:
a) Around 17K plus candidates waiting between 400 and 450.
b) Opening of new PNP quotas in 2016.
c) Pool growing at 1500 per week (including those scoring above 450 and those getting PNP/lmia and scoring above 600)
d) CIC making draws of about 4K per month
You can yourself guess how much the score is going to fall by. There will always be applicants graduating from Master’s, completing one-year experience in Canada, re-writing IELTS to score higher. Also CIC does not need to meet its targets. Even if they hit 80% of it, it’s not going to be the end of the world for them.
IMO, until and unless CIC drastically increases its immigration targets in 2016 or the count of people scoring “450 and above” falls down dramatically CIC will be able to meet its targets in 2016 by maintaining the score around 420 or 430 or even higher. I do not see the scores going below 400.
Two things will make picture clearer:
a) Immigration targets for 2016
b) Year end report by CIC
Disclaimer: All these calculations and analysis is speculative and are NOT factual and may or may not stand true
Sources (Not allowed to paste links):
Google: Notice supplementary targets 2015
Google: Mid year report CIC 205
Analysis:
Economic type (High) targets for 2015:
FSW – 51K
CEC- 23K
PNP – 24K (out of 48K)
PNP (24K) is an optimistic number, since at least half are paper-based application processed through the older route and at best half will be processed through Express Entry. The paper based PNP route will always continue in future too as of current scenario. For verification visit PNP websites, most provinces have less than half allocated to PNP.
Assuming the targets remain same for 2016 and all the applications are processed through Express Entry (which is not true since there still will be a backlog of paper-based fsw/fst applications from 2014 which will offset any increase in immigration targets).
Total = 98K
This includes single applicants and applicants with family of 2,3,4 or even more. On an average if there are 2 visas issued per ITA effectively number of ITA issued in 2016 = 49K or 4K per month.
CIC is currently able to issue 3K ITA per month while keeping the score around 450. According to June mid year report there were more than 8.5K applicants between 400 and 450. This will double by 2015 December at the same rate. Further new PNP quotas will open up in 2016. Opening up of new PNP on one hand means more number of seats for applicants to grab but it also means with every single issue of PNP (and allocation of 600 points) the score will go up. So PNP is actually detrimental to CEC/FST/FSW candidate. Also the Pool is growing at 1500 application were week.
In short, Jan 2016 might be something like this:
a) Around 17K plus candidates waiting between 400 and 450.
b) Opening of new PNP quotas in 2016.
c) Pool growing at 1500 per week (including those scoring above 450 and those getting PNP/lmia and scoring above 600)
d) CIC making draws of about 4K per month
You can yourself guess how much the score is going to fall by. There will always be applicants graduating from Master’s, completing one-year experience in Canada, re-writing IELTS to score higher. Also CIC does not need to meet its targets. Even if they hit 80% of it, it’s not going to be the end of the world for them.
IMO, until and unless CIC drastically increases its immigration targets in 2016 or the count of people scoring “450 and above” falls down dramatically CIC will be able to meet its targets in 2016 by maintaining the score around 420 or 430 or even higher. I do not see the scores going below 400.
Two things will make picture clearer:
a) Immigration targets for 2016
b) Year end report by CIC
Disclaimer: All these calculations and analysis is speculative and are NOT factual and may or may not stand true