OK, so far we have no official statistics from CIC about the pool, and we only know two contradictory facts:
* The number of people in the Excel suggests that there should be no more than a few thousand people in the pool, based on correlations between the number of people in Excels for previous programs and actual number of applicants.
* There were already more than 1500 people drawn with scores higher than 820, which suggests that there should be dozens of thousands of people in the pool.
What can we deduce from this? Here is my theory:
1. There are indeed only a few thousand people in the pool.
I find it highly unlikely that the Excel for the previous year contained 20% of the applicants, and yet somehow magically the Excel for Express Entrly would contain only 1% or 2%. Maybe 15%, maybe 10% but no way it would be only 2%.
I also find it highly unlikely that 30000 or 40000 people would suddenly rush to create an Express Entry profile in the first month. Possible, yes, but unlikely.
So how do we reconcile it with the results of the two draws? Here's my explanation:
2. There is an overrepresentation of people with > 600 score in the pool.
How did this overrepresentation happen? I suggest that it was created by many people wrongly ticking the box "I have a job offer" and getting 600 points, when in fact they don't have a LMIA.
There were already several threads on this forum by people who made this mistake. I presume that many more people may have done this. Maybe they are on PGWP or some other temporary work permit, and they assumed "I have a job already, so I will tick this box, right?". Or worse still, maybe some immigration agency created / helped create their profiles and the agency employee ticked this checkbox (I think this is even more likely because, as I read this forum, I clearly see that many immigration agencies are really clueless).
Also, remember that there were people with scores 820-880 in the second draw. That means that they have only 220-280 points for other factors and this will probably mean that they speak poor English. So maybe they just misunderstood this option in the profile and ticked it wrongly.
If my theory is correct, these people will soon start declining their ITAs as they realize they need to submit a LMIA which they don't have, or they will try to go on and get in trouble with the CIC. The CIC may get angry as well at the number of people which seem to be "misrepresenting" themselves - hard to predict their reaction.
Another reason for this overrepresentation might be some province entering its nominations, but I don't think any province could act that fast and issue that many EE nominations in a month. So I say that the above reason explains the results of the two draws so far.
What do you think?
* The number of people in the Excel suggests that there should be no more than a few thousand people in the pool, based on correlations between the number of people in Excels for previous programs and actual number of applicants.
* There were already more than 1500 people drawn with scores higher than 820, which suggests that there should be dozens of thousands of people in the pool.
What can we deduce from this? Here is my theory:
1. There are indeed only a few thousand people in the pool.
I find it highly unlikely that the Excel for the previous year contained 20% of the applicants, and yet somehow magically the Excel for Express Entrly would contain only 1% or 2%. Maybe 15%, maybe 10% but no way it would be only 2%.
I also find it highly unlikely that 30000 or 40000 people would suddenly rush to create an Express Entry profile in the first month. Possible, yes, but unlikely.
So how do we reconcile it with the results of the two draws? Here's my explanation:
2. There is an overrepresentation of people with > 600 score in the pool.
How did this overrepresentation happen? I suggest that it was created by many people wrongly ticking the box "I have a job offer" and getting 600 points, when in fact they don't have a LMIA.
There were already several threads on this forum by people who made this mistake. I presume that many more people may have done this. Maybe they are on PGWP or some other temporary work permit, and they assumed "I have a job already, so I will tick this box, right?". Or worse still, maybe some immigration agency created / helped create their profiles and the agency employee ticked this checkbox (I think this is even more likely because, as I read this forum, I clearly see that many immigration agencies are really clueless).
Also, remember that there were people with scores 820-880 in the second draw. That means that they have only 220-280 points for other factors and this will probably mean that they speak poor English. So maybe they just misunderstood this option in the profile and ticked it wrongly.
If my theory is correct, these people will soon start declining their ITAs as they realize they need to submit a LMIA which they don't have, or they will try to go on and get in trouble with the CIC. The CIC may get angry as well at the number of people which seem to be "misrepresenting" themselves - hard to predict their reaction.
Another reason for this overrepresentation might be some province entering its nominations, but I don't think any province could act that fast and issue that many EE nominations in a month. So I say that the above reason explains the results of the two draws so far.
What do you think?
